The same question was scattered across social media last week, albeit with some of the words shuffled around.
“Why does the NFL Scouting Combine matter?” If the answer is “It doesn’t,” then why go through the whole performance at all? It does matter, just not in the way you might suspect.
It’s only the Underwear Olympics (hardy har-har). Fast guys run fast, and the freaks are on parade. The point so often missed is each player’s draft capital. I’m with the jaded critics who believe the Combine shouldn’t affect where and when a player is drafted (if at all), but it does. Everyone in Indianapolis is running for something, whether it be their future or, in Rich Eisen’s case, charity.
Fantasy football lovers were paying attention. Among the participants, some saw their draft stock rise from a stellar showing at Lucas Oil Stadium. Others will hope their school’s pro day will conjure some form of redemption after a disappointing Combine workout. Fantasy value, especially in dynasty formats, is heavily dependent on draft capital. Where I don’t necessarily give a flying frittata about WR 40 times, the fluctuation in acquisition cost cannot be ignored.
- 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
- Expert Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
2024 NFL Scouting Combine: Risers & Fallers
Risers
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MICH)
Not only was Jim Harbaugh’s favorite QB sharp in the on-field drills, he really bulked up. J.J. McCarthy tipped the scales at nearly 220 pounds in Indy, more than 10 pounds over expected. This lends some confidence in the national champion signal caller’s durability at the next level. His arm is plenty strong and he is incredibly intelligent on the field. Only some cleanup on deep accuracy concerns stands in the way of McCarthy possibly going in the top-10 picks of the upcoming draft.
Michael Penix Jr. (QB – UW)
Michael Penix Jr. might have hobbled his way through the National Championship, tattered by the fearsome Michigan Wolverines defense, but he’s still so smooth. Penix Jr.’s silky release and pinpoint accuracy at all three levels were very apparent in the on-field drills. Like a less-mobile McCarthy, his strength is in his experience and football knowledge.
Trey Benson (RB – FSU)
In an RB class devoid of obvious first-round talent, we were starving for one of them to show out in Indy. Trey Benson answered the call. A hearty 6-foot tall and 216 pounds, Benson ran a blistering 4.39 in the 40. The senior Seminole is a well-rounded player on tape, so his strong Combine showing is frosting on the proverbial cupcake.
Isaac Guerendo (RB – LOU)
There was always an outside chance that a team would draft Isaac Guerendo in a few months. That chance is a near certainty after he put on an athletic showcase at Lucas Oil Stadium in front of all 32 teams and fans watching. Even at a beefy 220 pounds, the Louisville product by way of Wisconsin set the mark as the fastest RB at the Combine with a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. He also had an absurd 41.5-inch vertical jump, best of all RBs by an inch and a half. Guerendo is not known for his quickness, contact balance or vision, but some team will take a flyer in an effort to polish him into a Pro Bowler.
Ladd McConkey (WR – UG)
There were long stretches during Ladd McConkey’s career where other talented players simply overshadowed him. Always a savvy route runner and well-rounded technician out wide for Georgia, not many gave him credit for his athleticism. McConkey was one of nine WRs who ran faster than a 4.40 in the 40. Anything in the 4.3s is incendiary speed that can be lethal with a player with McConkey’s skillset. He really helped himself.
Xavier Worthy (WR – TEX)
I don’t make the rules. If you run the fastest 40 in the history of the NFL Scouting Combine, you’ll set off a domino effect where teams will fall over themselves to acquire you in the first round of the draft. Xavier Worthy’s slight frame is not a knock. Defenders can’t jam what they can’t touch. He ran a 4.21 for crying out loud. His play speed is there, along with a nice route-running repertoire. Fast WRs aren’t usually this good at football.
Fallers
Joe Milton III (QB – TENN)
Tennessee runs a full-on gimmick offensive scheme, and Joe Milton III might have the strongest throwing arm of all time. Neither of these statements is a full indictment or endorsement of Milton’s prospects at the NFL level. Milton lacks eye discipline, footwork and consistent accuracy. He was erratic throughout his on-field drills, save for an effortless 74-yard flick on a 9-route that he finished with a finger pistol. Milton is a steep project, but the underlying diamond is flawless.
Bucky Irving (RB – ORE)
There isn’t a rule against RBs under 200 pounds. Plenty of very successful players have overcome a smaller frame to become All-Pro players. Most of those players were pretty fast and have athletic traits that excite scouts from across the league. Bucky Irving is a prominent “Wow” player on Oregon game tape. He is quick, decisive and has incredible tackle-shedding ability for his size. He is not very fast, clocking a 4.55 40. He is also not very good at pass protection, a trait that could see him struggle to earn snaps at the NFL level. This might have been the most shockingly precipitous decline in value for any skill player in the 2024 class.
I, personally, did not take offense to Audric Estime’s 40 time. It was reportedly recorded using a sundial at 4.71 seconds. Estime looks fast as hell on tape, especially for a player who was playing at around 235 pounds for the Fighting Irish. He is explosive. His 38-inch vertical jump was among the best marks at RB. Estime is a bruiser with great vision and success in both gap-iso and zone-running schemes. Whether the league gives a hoot about a 40 time is yet to be determined, but the fantasy community is blue in the face holding their breath.
I love the way Keon Coleman plays. His straight line speed is under a lot of scrutiny these days, though, after he registered a plodding 4.61 in the 40. That was the second-worst among all WRs who participated. A good-not-great route runner, Coleman is good at using his size at the catch point and certainly after the catch. Some of the best WRs in history and in present day ran slow at the Combine. You wouldn’t know by the level of freaking out in the fantasy community as a result of Coleman’s syrupy sprint. He was outstanding in the gauntlet drill, where he was clocked at more than 20 miles per hour and showed off his “arrogant hands.” The Seminole standout is a player I’ll certainly take a discount on in dynasty rookie drafts should his draft capital slip a bit.
Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Two Rounds (10-Team, 1QB)
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Two Rounds (12-Team, 1QB)
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, 5-Round
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 10-Team, Superflex
- Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex
Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- 2024 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Draft Rankings: Fitz’s Top 40 Pick
- Erickson’s Top Dynasty Rookie Wide Receivers
- Erickson’s Top Dynasty Rookie Running Backs
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings & Tiers: Wide Receivers
- How to Prepare for Your Dynasty Rookie Draft: Feb |
- 3 Overvalued Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks to Avoid
- 3 Undervalued Dynasty Rookie Draft Picks to Target
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