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Top Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets: Chris Welsh’s Picks (2024)

Draft season is inching closer and closer. The question you start asking yourself is, “Self, who do I have to leave my draft with?” Well self, that’s a good question you ask. The following list is the answers I gave to myself when I posed this very question. My list has been compiled from tons of off-season research and the big tests, of course, which are drafts. I’ve got a handful of NFBC drafts under my belt, countless mock drafts, and some industry drafts like Tout Wars.

So here you go, these are “The Welsh” draft day targets, with FantasyPros consensus ADPs to give you an idea of where you can find them.

Chris Welsh’s Top Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets

Catcher

Gabriel Moreno (ARI ) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 158

What I love is a late catcher. The gaps or tiers between the top ten to twelve are smaller than almost any hitting position. In my search for cheap catchers, Gabby Moreno fits the bill. Gabby’s season numbers don’t look big, with seven home runs and 50 RBI, but the second half gave us a glimpse of what could be. He hit .313 in the second half with a top-10 slugging percentage and ISO among catchers. He hit five of his seven in that second half and four more in the postseason. The Dbacks may also continue hitting him from the three-hole like they did in the playoffs. Gabby’s year-over-year improvements could lead to a breakout in 2024.

First Base

Triston Casas (BOS ) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 96

We saw the Casas breakout happen in 2023. Surprisingly enough, no crazy new costs are following it. Casas hit 24 home runs with a .263 batting average over just over 130 games. He accomplished a trinity of stats I’m looking at for sustainable power, a double-digit barrel percentage (13.5%), a 45 or higher hard hit percentage (46.6%), and a double-digit launch angle (15.7). Most projection systems agree that Casas should outperform his 2023. The conservative approach isn’t accounting for a possible Austin Riley-like breakout, where Casas hits 30-plus home runs and pushes third-round value. He’s one of my favorite bats near the top range of drafts.

Second Base

Gleyber Torres (NYY ) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 88

You can forget about the great year Gleyber had pretty quickly when you think about Judge and Soto at the top of the Yankees lineup. It’s not something you should do, though. Gleyber had a little Bellinger in him, where he dramatically cut his strikeout rate while taking a hit on some of his barreling and hard-hit metrics. The positive part of this was his expected stats, like xBA and xSLG, overperformed his actual results. Projections back much of this up by conservatively guesstimating he has a repeat season on pretty much every counting stat. There may be even better RBI opportunities that could push those over 100. At worst, if he does repeat, he should push inside the top 50 player range.

Shortstop

Oneil Cruz (PIT ) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 86

If there has been one must-have player in drafts for me, it’s been Oneil Cruz. The reason has been pretty simple. If you believe the improvements he made at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023, as well as buy into 2024 projections, his ADP outside the top 75 screams value. There is plenty of risk versus reward here, as the average could waver, and there were strikeout issues in the past. Not to mention he missed most of 2023. I believe though you have to take risks in drafts, and his lower cost with a top two-round return is not only worth the risk, but many of his downsides can be masked with good drafting. It’s not often we find a 25/25 guy who isn’t screaming with draft buzz. If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong, but I’m all aboard the “Cruz Ship.”

Third Base

Rafael Devers (BOS ) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 21

Devers is just so good, he feels boring. In two of the last three years, he’s hit at least 30+ home runs and drove in 100 or more RBIs. He was in the top five percentile of the league in hard hit percentage, max EV and xWOBA. As good as he continues to be, even ATC Projections have him improving in four of the five roto categories (three that we really care about). Devers is as elite as you can be of a fantasy player who doesn’t accumulate stolen bases. The only negative orbiting his fantasy space right now is the less-than-desirable supporting cast. The team has built itself around a bit more speed, which may create even more opportunities for Devers. I talk about risk with a guy like Oneil Cruzi a little later in drafts, and guys like Devers are the reason you can take a shot or two.

Outfielder

Michael Harris (ATL ) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 33

We may have more of them these days, but 20/20 guys still don’t grow on trees, at least not yet. Harris just about accomplished this last year. Harris struggled to make the contact he wanted to early in the year but turned a first-half hitting just .255 into a.325 second half. He finished the year with a .293 average, but amazingly had an xBA higher at .304 which was one of the best in the entire league. Harris had an impressive 48% hard-hit rate and lowered his groundball rate in the second half. A lot of this has led to impressive projections. ATC has him over 20/20 and a .281 batting average. According to ATC, there are only three other outfielders projections, and there are only three other outfielders projected to go 20/20 with a .280 average or higher. All three of those hitters, Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, and Kyle Tucker are top-8 picks. Michael Harris’ ADP is just around 30th overall. Yes, please.

Starting Pitcher

George Kirby (SEA ) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 41

The current craze is for extreme strikeout pitches. I’m down with this, of course, but many (not all) heavy strikeout pitchers come with ERA/WHIP concerns. Kirby isn’t the elite strikeout guy, but he is one of the highest-floor pitchers in baseball. He had the lowest walk rate in baseball at 2.5% in 2023. He added velocity to his fastball and put up a 3.35 ERA over 190 innings. His biggest problem is pitching to so much contact that he doesn’t walk batters. It’s a quirk in his game that could lead to instability if that control were to waver. We haven’t seen that yet. What we have seen are pitch additions like his split-finger, which sported the highest WHIFF rate of any pitch he threw, and talk of pitch additions (this year, the desire to throw a knuckle-curve). What perks my interest here though, is his continued ability to grow as a pitcher, is one strikeout change away from going from a top 8-12 pitcher to one of the very best. Maybe you shave off a little upside by taking him early, but I believe he does provide the floor where you can more comfortably take later shots on guys like Cole Ragans or Bobby Miller, who may have a little volatility but huge strikeout upside.

Relief Pitcher

Camilo Doval (SF) | FantasyPros Consensus ADP: 71

In 2023 Doval had more saves than Devin Williams (37), a better K per 9 than Emmanuel Clase (11.57), and was one of only six closers with 30 or more saves and an ERA under three. His improvements continue to be year-over-year as well as he improved his K%, swinging strike rate, and lowered his walk rate. All of the stats aside, I don’t tend to want to dive head first in the first closer market. I do, though, want to lock down one closer that doesn’t come with major questions. Doval has the upside of one of the elite guys, with a more reasonable 70-80 draft range.