While the 2024 fantasy football redraft season is still months away, FantasyPros already has rankings up. One of FantasyPros’ awesome features is the standard deviation tool that gives fantasy players an idea of how much of a consensus there is among the experts regarding a certain player.
Today, I look at seven wide receivers with a higher standard deviation, examine the argument or reasoning behind the disagreement among the experts, and give my opinion on whether the player is ranked too high or too low in the rankings.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Most Polarizing Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (WR – LV)
WR13 | 2.8 STD. DEV
Many hope that Adams gets traded to the New York Jets this offseason, reuniting him with Aaron Rodgers. The future Hall of Famer’s situation in Las Vegas isn’t ideal for fantasy players. He averaged 12.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his lowest mark since his second year in the league. Adams saw his yards per route run drop nearly 17% from 2022 to 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). The veteran should get drafted as a mid-to-low-end WR2 in redraft leagues, even if he ends up in New York.
Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF)
WR17 | 4.7 STD. DEV
Diggs’ fantasy value for next year is up in the air. The star wide receiver turned 30 in November and had a late-season slump for the second consecutive year. He WAS the WR4, averaging 16.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, with Ken Dorsey calling the plays. By comparison, Diggs was the WR55, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. Fantasy players might want to let a league-mate draft the Buffalo receiver and pick someone else with a safer outlook.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
WR26 | 4.0 STD. DEV
Unfortunately, Kupp has struggled to stay healthy lately. Yet, he was the top wide receiver in fantasy when healthy in 2021 and 2022. His yards per route run declined by 36.8%, while his target share dropped by 23.5% from 2021 to last year (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Puka Nacua has become the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Kupp’s days as a WR1 are over, however, he is too talented and still to big of a part of a fantasy-friendly offense to get drafted outside the top 20 wide receivers.
Jayden Reed (WR – GB)
WR32 | 5.3 STD. DEV
Last year, Reed was the best Packers wide receiver. He ended the season as the WR23, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the rookie averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, 1.77 yards per route run, 21% target per route run rate, and a 16.6% first-read target share with Christian Watson playing (per Fantasy Points Date). By comparison, Reed posted 14.1/2.85/33%/24.6% in those metrics, with Watson sidelined. It will be interesting to see how this wide receiver unit shakes out during training camp.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
WR47 | 5.4 STD. DEV
Williams is expected to be a salary cap casualty this offseason. The former Clemson star was the WR12 in 2023 on a point-per-game basis, averaging 13.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Unfortunately, a torn ACL ended his season after three games. Yet, Williams was the WR30 in 2022 and the WR10 in 2021, averaging at least 11.2 fantasy points per game in both years. Unless he has to catch passes from Mac Jones, Williams has too much history and upside to get drafted as a low-end WR4.
Adam Thielen (WR – CAR)
WR53 | 6.2 STD. DEV
The veteran was disregarded heading into the 2023 season. Yet, Thielen was the only fantasy-relevant wide receiver in Carolina last year. He was the WR25, averaging 10.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran was the WR8, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game over the first seven contests, scoring 11.2 or more in 85.7% of matchups before ending the season on a cold streak. Hopefully, the Panthers improve their receiving corps in the offseason. However, Thielen could be a steal again in 2024 if that doesn’t happen.
Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)
WR72 | 8.7 STD. DEV
Much has changed for Wilson over the past few months. The Arizona Cardinals will likely draft a wide receiver with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Furthermore, the team could re-sign Marquise Brown, as he and Kyler Murray were college teammates. Wilson has potential, averaging 12.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 1.94 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data) in the five contests with six or more targets. Yet, his value for next year will come down to what the team does this offseason.
Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Early Undervalued Players
- Early Overvalued Players: RB | WR
- QB2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb
- RB3s With RB1 Upside: Feb
- TE2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb
- Players to Avoid: QB | RB
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- 7 Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Underrated Handcuffs
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB | WR
- RB Dead Zone Running Backs: Draft or Fade?
- Most Polarizing Running Backs to Draft
- Tight End Draft Dart Throws
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
