While the 2024 fantasy football redraft season is still months away, FantasyPros already has rankings up. One of FantasyPros’ awesome features is the standard deviation tool that gives fantasy players an idea of how much of a consensus there is among the experts regarding a certain player.
Today, I look at three quarterbacks and three tight ends with a higher standard deviation, examine the argument or reasoning behind the disagreement among the experts, and give my opinion on whether the player is ranked too high or too low in the rankings.
- Most Polarizing Running Backs to Draft
- Most Polarizing Wide Receivers to Draft
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Most Polarizing Quarterbacks & Tight Ends to Draft
Justin Fields (QB – CHI)
QB9 | 2.7 STD. DEV
It’s easy to understand why Fields is a polarizing player for the experts, as we don’t know which team he will play for next season. Many thought the former Ohio State star would have a breakout year in 2023 with the arrival of DJ Moore. Instead, his passing numbers didn’t take much of a jump while his rushing production severely declined. The only way I’m drafting Fields as a top-10 quarterback next season is if he remains with the Chicago Bears and they draft Marvin Harrison Jr.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
QB11 | 1.9 STD. DEV
While he missed half of the 2023 season recovering from a torn ACL, Murray was the QB9 on a points-per-game basis (18.3) among quarterbacks with at least six starts. The former Oklahoma star was the QB7 on a points-per-game basis in 2022 and a top-10 quarterback every year of his career before suffering the torn ACL. Murray will be over a year removed from the torn ACL next season and likely have an elite rookie receiver added to his receiving core, making him a steal as the QB11 in the rankings.
Jordan Love (QB – GB)
QB13 | 2.0 STD. DEV
Love’s first year as the starter had some significant up-and-down swings. However, he ended the season as the QB5, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game, a higher average than Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy. The former Utah State star had 32 passing touchdowns, totaling nearly twice as many games with two or more passing scores (11) than one or fewer (six). Love is criminally underrated in the rankings, as he should only get better as he and his young receiving core develop.
Dallas Goedert (TE – PHI)
TE10 | 1.3 STD. DEV
The veteran tight end has dealt with injuries the past few years, missing eight games over the past two seasons. More importantly, Goedert’s production has declined in three consecutive years. His yards per reception have declined by 32.4% from 2021 to last season. Furthermore, the tight end’s yards per route run rate has dropped in three consecutive years, declining by 1.15 from 2021 to 2023. The Philadelphia Eagles’ passing attack struggled to support both wide receivers and Goedert last season. I have limited interest in drafting the veteran in 2024.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN)
TE11 | 2.0 STD. DEV
Hockenson had a career year in 2023. He set a career-high in receptions (95), receiving yards (960) and half-point PPR fantasy points per game (11.4) despite missing the final 2.5 contests with a torn ACL. More importantly, Hockenson was the TE2 before getting hurt despite playing with four different quarterbacks. Unfortunately, the torn ACL happened so late in the season that the veteran will likely miss most of next year recovering from the injury. Therefore, Hockenson has no business being a top-15 tight end in the rankings.
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT)
TE17 | 2.0 STD. DEV
Last year was one to forget for Freiermuth. He averaged 5.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career low. The former Penn State star saw his targets (36.1%) and receiving yards (43.9%) per game significantly drop from 2022 to 2023. However, Arthur Smith’s arrival is good news for Freiermuth. Last year, the Atlanta Falcons tight ends averaged a 31.7% overall target share and a 29.3% red zone target share. Unless the team signs Jonnu Smith this offseason, Freiermuth will be an appealing low-end TE1 draft option for fantasy players.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- 5 Players Experts Avoid Drafting
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Early Undervalued Players: RB | WR
- Early Overvalued Players: RB | WR
- QB2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb
- RB3s With RB1 Upside: Feb
- TE2s With Top-5 Upside: Feb
- Players to Avoid: QB | RB
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- 7 Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Underrated Handcuffs
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB | WR | TE
- RB Dead Zone Running Backs: Draft or Fade?
- Most Polarizing Running Backs to Draft
- Most Polarizing Wide Receivers to Draft
- Tight End Draft Dart Throws
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.