It’s here. THE SUPER BOWL. One final Showdown DFS slate to conclude the 2023 NFL season. It’s put up or shut up time. Can Patrick Mahomes add to his already legendary legacy? Will Travis Kelce hoist the hardware and become Taylor Swift’s new roadie and ride off into retirement? Can Kyle Shanahan finally secure a Super Bowl ring that has alluded him to this point? Good lord, it’s gonna be a good game.
Let’s figure out how to attack it for DFS and build some lineups. Welcome to Super Bowl LVlll Primer. Enjoy.
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The Primer: Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- SF -2, O/U 47.5
- 49ers vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
DFS Targets
- Top shelf captains: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
- Contrarian captains / Flex plays: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon (if active), KC DST, Harrison Butker, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: Purdy’s level of play during the NFL playoffs has been inconsistent at best. While he has had 7.4 yards per attempt, he has struggled in a number of other efficiency metrics. His -2.5% CPOE, 70.3% adjusted completion rate, and 7.1% turnover-worthy throw rate are all tough pills to swallow. In the regular season, those numbers would have ranked 12th-lowest, eighth-lowest, and third-worst. That’s not good, no matter how you want to slice it or sugarcoat it. Add on top that Purdy will face a vaunted Chiefs’ pass defense, and it’s tough to consider betting the overs for his props or plugging him into DFS lineups, but I wouldn’t cross him off my player pool. It just means that he makes the contrarian list as a player I’ll match the field or come in below consensus on. This postseason, Kansas City has held passers to 5.7 yards per attempt, a 75.2 passer rating, -6.1% CPOE, and only 219 passing yards per game.
Patrick Mahomes: Since Week 13, Mahomes hasn’t managed more than 18.6 fantasy points in any game. Mahomes has only two outings in that span with at least 18.5 fantasy points. In the same span, Purdy has at least 20 fantasy points three times and has hit at least 18.5 fantasy points four times. Since Week 13, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes has played well while the fantasy scoring hasn’t reflected, ranking tenth in passing touchdowns and eighth in CPOE, but he has ranked only 21st in fantasy points per dropback and 17th in highly accurate throw rate. Mahomes will have his work cut out for him against a 49ers pass defense that, since Week 15, has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and the sixth-lowest passer rating and CPOE. San Francisco has had definite pressure points, though, that Mahomes could squeeze and make them squeal. Since Week 15, the 49ers have allowed the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate and the tenth-most passing yards to deep attempts. During that time frame, they also allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and the seventh-highest passer rating to play-action passing. If you are picking only one quarterback for your lineups or which quarterback to lean more on in exposures, it’s Mahomes.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey will be a popular captain, and I can’t argue with it. In two playoff games this season, he has averaged 24 touches and 130 total yards, with two scores in each contest. He has played at least 91% of the snaps in each outing, leaving very little meat on the bone for Elijah Mitchell. McCaffrey has been fantastic in the postseason, with a 32% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 3.49 yards after contact per attempt. Those are elite marks. McCaffrey should be the engine for the 49ers’ offense in this game. Kansas City has been elite against the pass all season, but they have struggled to stop the run. Since Week 15, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and the 12th-highest zone rushing success rate (McCaffrey 78.4% zone in the playoffs) while also sporting the fifth-lowest stuff rate. McCaffrey could easily drop 30 fantasy points. I’m trying to wedge him into as many lineups as possible. If I am excluding him from some lineups, then I’m prioritizing at least one of the big 49ers’ pass catchers (Aiyuk, Samuel, or Kittle) and likely two of them.
Isiah Pacheco: Even if McKinnon is active, look for Pacheco to play 70% or more of the snaps. McKinnon won’t be 100%, even if he’s active, so I don’t project a dramatic snapshare downturn for Pacheco. He has played at least 70% of the snaps in each playoff game, averaging 23 touches and 93.6 total yards. While his volume has been fantastic in the playoffs, his efficiency hasn’t been. In three playoff games, he has only managed an 11% missed tackles forced per attempt rate, 2.33 yards after contact per attempt, and a 3.2% explosive run rate. Each of these marks are no bueno. Despite my worries about his effectiveness, this remains a nice bounce-back spot for Pacheco. The 49ers had a stretch earlier this season where they were fielding a strong run defense, but that hasn’t been the case down the back half of the regular season, and it has continued into the playoffs. Since Week 15, San Francisco has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate, the sixth-most rushing yards per game, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt. Pacheco is a fantastic contrarian captain.
Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon’s practice window has opened, and he may play in the Super Bowl. McKinnon has been lightly utilized this season. There’s no way around that, but don’t sleep on his touchdown equity in the Kansas City offense. This season, he managed only 46 touches, but 17.3% of that volume occurred in the red zone. If McKinnon scores, he likely ends up in the optimal. Pass-game usage is his route to success if he’s active. In the regular season, San Francisco allowed the sixth-most receptions and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel: Samuel should lead the way for the 49ers’ passing attack. In the playoffs, Kansas City has deployed two-high on 77.2% of their defensive snaps. Samuel has been San Francisco’s answer for two-high this season. Since Week 10, against two high, he has had a 23.1% target share (leads the team), 2.53 YPRR (team-leading), and a 34.8% first-read share. Samuel is my second favorite captain for this game. If McCaffrey doesn’t pop off for a monster game, then I bet that Samuel did. It’s also possible that Samuel and McCaffrey carry the 49ers offense, which is why I’m trying to wedge both in as many lineups as possible. L’Jarius Sneed hasn’t followed a receiver on more than 50% of his routes since Week 17, so I doubt Samuel sees a shadow in this game.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk will likely take a backseat to Samuel in the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, Kansas City has deployed two-high on 77.2% of their defensive snaps. Since Week 10, against two high, Aiyuk has had a 16.3% target share, a 29.9% air-yard share, 1.65 YPRR, and a 24.7% first-read share. The Chiefs held perimeter wide receivers to the fifth-lowest PPR points per target in the regular season. Yes, that stat could also be used to pump the brakes on Samuel, but since Week 10, Samuel has played 40% of his snaps in the slot or the backfield against two high whereas Aiyuk had a 73.4% perimeter snap rate against two high. I’m fading Aiyuk in this game.
Rashee Rice: Rice and Travis Kelce have been the pillars of the Kansas City aerial attack since Week 12. Rice should again fight Kelce for the team lead in targets in the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, the 49ers have utilized two high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, against two high, Rice has led the team with a 22.2% target share and 2.99 YPRR while ranking only second to Kelce with a 28% first-read share. During that span, Rice and Kelce are tied for the team lead in play-action targets (10) against two high. Rice has displayed a huge ceiling worthy of captain consideration. He could easily post 100 receiving yards and a score (or two) and be the optimal captain for the Super Bowl.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: In the playoffs, the 49ers have utilized two high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, against two high, Valdes-Scantling has had only a 5.7% target share but he’s accounted for a 22.6% air yard share against the coverage type. In that span, he has also tied for the team lead in deep targets against two-high. Valdes-Scantling only needs one big play that he houses for a score to elbow his way into the winning lineup.
Justin Watson: I have no issues excluding Watson from my player pool for the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, the 49ers have utilized two high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, against two high, Watson has only managed a 45.9% route run rate, a 2.9% target share (only five targets), and 0.36 YPRR. Watson will blend into the background in the Super Bowl.
Richie James: James only ran seven routes in the Conference Championship while drawing one target. If we’re going down the “which random Chiefs wide receiver will score in the Super Bowl,” I’d rather bet on James than Hardman. In the playoffs, the 49ers have utilized two high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, against two high, James has had an 18% TPRR and 2.1 YPRR. James is a thin play, but you have to get weird in Showdown sometimes, and he’s a good way to do so.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce: When Patrick Mahomes drops back, if he’s not looking for Rice first, it’ll be Kelce. In the playoffs, the 49ers have utilized two high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, against two high, Kelce has had a 20.3% target share, a 30.2% air-yard share (leads the team), 1.8 YPRR, and a 29% first-read share (team-leading). The 49ers have been vulnerable to tight ends. In Weeks 10-18, they gave up the seventh-most fantasy points and the ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Sam LaPorta lit them on fire in the Conference Championship, securing nine of his 13 targets with 97 receiving yards. Kelce has switched on playoff-time beast mode with at least 71 receiving yards in each game and three scores over his last two games. Kelce is another strong captain choice.
Kicker / DST
Harrison Butker, Jake Moody, and both DSTs are all in play for Showdown. I’m not prioritizing any of those as “must-have” plays with the volatility of kickers and defenses in Showdown. If pinned down, I slightly prefer Butker and the KC DST. We need field goals if a kicker is going to crush it in fantasy. Those don’t happen nearly often enough for San Francisco as they lead the NFL in red zone touchdown scoring percentage (KC, 19th). This makes Butker the obvious kicker play if you’re looking to roster one. The 49ers defense hasn’t registered double-digit DK points since Week 15. During that span, Kansas City’s defense hit double-digit DK points twice. In the regular season, Kansas City also ranked second in sacks and pressure rate.
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