Welcome to Super Bowl LVIII, our final taste of football for the 2023-2024 season for daily fantasy football enthusiasts, NFL sports bettors, and those looking ahead to the best ball drafting season.
In this exciting and final phase of the real NFL season, I’m here to equip you with the latest edition of the 2023-2024 usage report, packed with essential tips for fantasy managers and those looking to get on the wagering/pick action with the official 2023 fantasy football season in the books. Again, we often don’t cite Weeks 18 and on when we summarize the 2023 fantasy football season. But it’s doing an injustice not to take more information that these teams/players provide us as we set our sights on having an edge over our opponents in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Our focus has shifted from traditional buy/sell strategies to a “stock up/stock down” throughout the postseason. Expect direct DFS and PrizePicks advice for those looking for something extra to enhance your viewing experience.
Don’t miss out on signing up for PrizePicks! Use our BettingPros PrizePicks Cheat Sheet and my promo code: PR-REQ653D for instant promo funds up to $25.
Note that you can get an essential freebie for Patrick Mahomes to throw for more than half a yard as a Prizepicks SB Promotion.
Now, let’s dive into the Super Bowl LVIII Fantasy Football Forecast.
Fantasy Football Forecast Super Bowl LVIII
Kansas City Chiefs
In a closely contested game, the Kansas City Chiefs leaned on their ground game and strategic passing to secure a victory. The Chiefs’ running back, Isiah Pacheco, carried the ball 24 times on a 79% snap share, grinding out 68 hard-fought yards and punching in a touchdown, showcasing his resilience against a tough defensive line.
The scrappy RB also caught all four of his targets for 14 yards.
I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the over on his 68.5 rushing yards prop this weekend. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three of his last four games and 60 or more in seven of his last nine games played.
Still, he will have to rip off some explosive runs against a defense that has been traditionally stout versus the run (just not recently). Last two weeks, they have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs between Aaron Jones and David Montgomery.
Before this back-breaking run-defensive performance, the 49ers had allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards to seven of the last eight RBs they faced. And the only “over” by James Conner came on an explosive rush.
But given how leaky they have been – and how often the team is force-feeding Pacheco – the MORE THAN is the move on the Chiefs RBs for Super Bowl 58. Pacheco has gone over 16.5 carries in three of his last four games and five of his last 10 games.
I also love his potential as a receiver.
The last six of the last 11 RBs to face San Fran have gone over their receiving yards. Aaron Jones had six targets two weeks ago. Jahmyr Gibbs had six targets last week. The 49ers are also allowing the 8th-most yards (37), 6th-most targets (7), and 6th-most catches (5.3) to RBs this season.
Also, the last FIVE RBs the 49ers have faced have posted at least 70 offensive yards from scrimmage.
Give me ALL the Pacheco OVERs on his receiving yards (17.5) and yards from scrimmage (89.5).
He has 82-plus yards from scrimmage in four straight games and 14 receiving yards in back-to-back games. The best bet on Pacheco is to take the MORE THAN on his fantasy points projection set at 15 points on Prizepicks, as he has gone MORE THAN in four straight games.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes added mobility on the ground with six carries, contributing 15 yards to the Chiefs’ rushing total, which accumulated to 89 yards across 32 attempts.
Many expect Mahomes to soar over his rushing yards total in the Super Bowl, but as pointed out last week, the 49ers don’t allow a ton of rushing production to QBs. Given that the 49ers don’t blitz (third-lowest blitz rate), this is an easy under to SMASH for Mahomes. Eight of the last 10 QBs SF has played have gone UNDER their rushing yards projection. Mahomes is under 26.5 rushing yards in his last two playoff games.
Through the air, Mahomes demonstrated precision and control, completing 30 of 39 passes for 241 yards. His connection with tight end Travis Kelce was particularly effective, as Kelce reeled in all 11 targets (30% target share) thrown his way, amassing 116 yards and scoring the team’s lone receiving touchdown with 10 catches in the first half alone.
Kelce is on a straight heater, with three straight games of 70-plus yards. Given how great and consistent he is in the postseason, hard to imagine he’s not going for MORE THAN 70 receiving yards in his fourth straight game in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs’ receiving corps showed depth with contributions from Rashee Rice (9 targets, 25% target share, 8 catches) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2 targets, 2 catches), who added 46 and 38 yards, respectively.
We nailed the MORE THAN on Rashee Rice’s 6.5 receptions prop last week. Rice has 6-plus catches in seven of his last 10 games played, including 8-plus catches in four of his last five road games played.
Note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season, and seven of the last 10 WRs they have faced have gone MORE THAN their reception total.
No. 2 TE Noah Gray was targeted five times (14% target share). Mecole Hardman played one offensive snap, fewer than Justyn Ross (4%).
Justin Watson played 36 snaps (44%), commanding two targets and one catch for 16 yards.
Despite the modest yardage, the Chiefs’ offense maintained a balanced attack, keeping the opposing defense on its toes. Kelce’s performance stood out, not just for his touchdown but also for his consistent ability to move the chains in crucial moments. The Chiefs’ strategy seemed to revolve around short, efficient passes, as evidenced by the average yards per reception and the distribution of targets among the receivers.
The Chiefs’ offensive line deserves credit for protecting Mahomes, allowing only two sacks on the day. This protection was key in giving Mahomes the time needed to find his receivers and manage the game effectively. The victory was a testament to the Chiefs’ ability to execute their game plan, maintain possession, and capitalize on scoring opportunities when they arose.
San Francisco 49ers
In a dynamic display of offense, the San Francisco 49ers showcased a balanced attack in their latest game.
Christian McCaffrey led the ground game with 20 carries for 90 yards, finding the end zone twice while showcasing his versatility and power. He also went for 4-42 through the air on five targets.
The over on McCaffrey’s rushing yardage at 87.5 yards might be the obvious/safest wager to make with the 49ers offensive personnel. Gone over in eight of his last 10 games played. In one game, he didn’t finish because of an injury.
Quarterback Brock Purdy added a new dimension to the running game, notching 48 yards on just five carries, highlighting his mobility and ability to escape pressure. Purdy has 14 or more rushing yards in both of his postseason starts, so I lean toward the MORE THAN on his 11.5 rushing yards prop.
The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season. They have also allowed three of the last four QBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yardage props, including 25 rushing yards at least to each opposing QB.
Elijah Mitchell also scored a late TD after CMC was winded and took a big hit near the goal line.
The 49ers’ passing game was equally effective, with Purdy completing 20 of 31 attempts for 267 yards. Despite one interception, Purdy managed a touchdown pass and maintained a decent passer rating of 89.0.
I am leaning heavily toward the under on Purdy’s passing yardage set at 248.5 passing yards. The Chiefs’ defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards in two of the last 3 weeks. Only one QB their first team defense has faced in the last five weeks has gone for more than 200 yards through the air. Seven of the last 10 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. Since Week 14, they have allowed two QBs to go over 200 passing yards. Purdy has only tossed for 250 yards thrice away from home this season.
His primary target in the NFC Championship Game was Deebo Samuel, who caught eight of nine targets (30% target share) for 89 yards on a 77% snap share, utilizing his unique skill set to create yards after the catch. Brandon Aiyuk made the most of his opportunities, turning three receptions into 68 yards, including a long of 51 yards for a touchdown, demonstrating his big-play capability and focus on a ball that was tipped in the air. He saw eight targets for a 27% target share with a whopping 134 air yards.
Aiyuk is always a candidate to post huge yardage totals at any point, but he doesn’t always rack up a ton of receptions. He has only caught three passes for three straight weeks, and the Chiefs have allowed the 6th-fewest completions to WRs this season. I hate taking LESS THAN on Aiyuk, but he’s more likely to beat us in yardage than total catches.
The 49ers’ offense was characterized by its efficiency and ability to spread the ball, with contributions from Kyle Juszczyk (61% snap share) and George Kittle, who combined for 60 yards on four receptions.
Kittle was quiet, with Samuel being the focus of the game plan, going just 2/27 on three targets. He still played 97% of the snaps. Kittle has also gone over 60 receiving yards in seven of his last 11 games, including seven of the 49ers’ nine home games played this season.
This diverse offensive approach kept the defense guessing and allowed the 49ers to maintain control of the game’s tempo.
Overall, the 49ers’ offensive performance was a testament to their strategic play-calling and execution. The combination of a strong running game, led by McCaffrey, and a reliable passing attack, orchestrated by Purdy, propelled the team forward. The ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, particularly in the red zone, underscored the effectiveness of their game plan.
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