It’s here. THE SUPER BOWL. One final Showdown DFS slate to conclude the 2023 NFL season. It’s put up or shut up time. Can Patrick Mahomes add to his already legendary legacy? Will Travis Kelce hoist the hardware and become Taylor Swift’s new roadie and ride off into retirement? Can Kyle Shanahan finally secure a Super Bowl ring that has alluded him to this point? Good lord, it’s gonna be a good game.
Let’s figure out how to attack it for DFS and build some lineups. Welcome to Super Bowl LVlll Primer. Enjoy.
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The Primer: Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- SF -2, O/U 47.5
- 49ers vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
DFS Targets
- Top shelf captains: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
- Contrarian captains / Flex plays: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon (if active), KC DST, Harrison Butker, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James
Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey will be a popular captain, and I can’t argue with it. In two playoff games this season, he has averaged 24 touches and 130 total yards, with two scores in each contest. He has played at least 91% of the snaps in each outing, leaving very little meat on the bone for Elijah Mitchell. McCaffrey has been fantastic in the postseason, with a 32% missed tackles forced per attempt rate and 3.49 yards after contact per attempt. Those are elite marks. McCaffrey should be the engine for the 49ers’ offense in this game. Kansas City has been elite against the pass all season, but they have struggled to stop the run. Since Week 15, they have allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate and the 12th-highest zone rushing success rate (McCaffrey 78.4% zone in the playoffs) while also sporting the fifth-lowest stuff rate. McCaffrey could easily drop 30 fantasy points. I’m trying to wedge him into as many lineups as possible. If I am excluding him from some lineups, then I’m prioritizing at least one of the big 49ers’ pass catchers (Aiyuk, Samuel, or Kittle) and likely two of them.
Rashee Rice: Rice and Travis Kelce have been the pillars of the Kansas City aerial attack since Week 12. Rice should again fight Kelce for the team lead in targets in the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, the 49ers have utilized two high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, against two high, Rice has led the team with a 22.2% target share and 2.99 YPRR while ranking only second to Kelce with a 28% first-read share. During that span, Rice and Kelce are tied for the team lead in play-action targets (10) against two high. Rice has displayed a huge ceiling worthy of captain consideration. He could easily post 100 receiving yards and a score (or two) and be the optimal captain for the Super Bowl.
Travis Kelce: When Patrick Mahomes drops back, if he’s not looking for Rice first, it’ll be Kelce. In the playoffs, the 49ers have utilized two high on 60.3% of their coverage snaps. Since Week 12, against two high, Kelce has had a 20.3% target share, a 30.2% air-yard share (leads the team), 1.8 YPRR, and a 29% first-read share (team-leading). The 49ers have been vulnerable to tight ends. In Weeks 10-18, they gave up the seventh-most fantasy points and the ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Sam LaPorta lit them on fire in the Conference Championship, securing nine of his 13 targets with 97 receiving yards. Kelce has switched on playoff-time beast mode with at least 71 receiving yards in each game and three scores over his last two games. Kelce is another strong captain choice.
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