It’s here. THE SUPER BOWL. One final Showdown DFS slate to conclude the 2023 NFL season. It’s put up or shut up time. Can Patrick Mahomes add to his already legendary legacy? Will Travis Kelce hoist the hardware and become Taylor Swift’s new roadie and ride off into retirement? Can Kyle Shanahan finally secure a Super Bowl ring that has alluded him to this point? Good lord, it’s gonna be a good game.
Let’s figure out how to attack it for DFS and build some lineups. Welcome to Super Bowl LVlll Primer. Enjoy.
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The Primer: Super Bowl LVIII
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- SF -2, O/U 47.5
- 49ers vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
DFS Targets
- Top shelf captains: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce
- Contrarian captains / Flex plays: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon (if active), KC DST, Harrison Butker, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James
Patrick Mahomes: Since Week 13, Mahomes hasn’t managed more than 18.6 fantasy points in any game. Mahomes has only two outings in that span with at least 18.5 fantasy points. In the same span, Purdy has at least 20 fantasy points three times and has hit at least 18.5 fantasy points four times. Since Week 13, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Mahomes has played well while the fantasy scoring hasn’t reflected, ranking tenth in passing touchdowns and eighth in CPOE, but he has ranked only 21st in fantasy points per dropback and 17th in highly accurate throw rate. Mahomes will have his work cut out for him against a 49ers pass defense that, since Week 15, has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and the sixth-lowest passer rating and CPOE. San Francisco has had definite pressure points, though, that Mahomes could squeeze and make them squeal. Since Week 15, the 49ers have allowed the 12th-highest adjusted completion rate and the tenth-most passing yards to deep attempts. During that time frame, they also allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and the seventh-highest passer rating to play-action passing. If you are picking only one quarterback for your lineups or which quarterback to lean more on in exposures, it’s Mahomes.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel should lead the way for the 49ers’ passing attack. In the playoffs, Kansas City has deployed two-high on 77.2% of their defensive snaps. Samuel has been San Francisco’s answer for two-high this season. Since Week 10, against two high, he has had a 23.1% target share (leads the team), 2.53 YPRR (team-leading), and a 34.8% first-read share. Samuel is my second favorite captain for this game. If McCaffrey doesn’t pop off for a monster game, then I bet that Samuel did. It’s also possible that Samuel and McCaffrey carry the 49ers offense, which is why I’m trying to wedge both in as many lineups as possible. L’Jarius Sneed hasn’t followed a receiver on more than 50% of his routes since Week 17, so I doubt Samuel sees a shadow in this game.
Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon’s practice window has opened, and he may play in the Super Bowl. McKinnon has been lightly utilized this season. There’s no way around that, but don’t sleep on his touchdown equity in the Kansas City offense. This season, he managed only 46 touches, but 17.3% of that volume occurred in the red zone. If McKinnon scores, he likely ends up in the optimal. Pass-game usage is his route to success if he’s active. In the regular season, San Francisco allowed the sixth-most receptions and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs.
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