Identifying overvalued assets is a crucial skill that can set savvy fantasy football managers apart. As we delve into the realm of running backs for 2024 this early in the offseason, the goal is to highlight early candidates who might be more hype than substance. So, let’s get into which running backs appear to be overvalued heading into next season.
Early Overvalued Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
You probably expected to see Austin Ekeler’s name here but his draft position will be too rich for my blood due to name recognition.
Ekeler played 14 games and finished the 2023 season with his fewest number of all-purpose yards (76) per game since 2018. His touchdown regression was shocking, too. He scored six touchdowns in 2023 after scoring 38 over the previous two seasons.
He looked less explosive, too. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Ekeler’s 2.63 yards after contact per attempt is the lowest number of his career.
Your more casual league mates might think, “Eh, it was an outlier year. The Chargers stunk and Ekeler will rebound. This is a good value!”
They could be right but Ekeler will be 29 next season and is an unrestricted free agent. I’d be shocked if he led any team’s backfield in touches next season.
Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)
In this episode of “Fade Arthur Smith’s Playmakers“…
Jaylen Warren looked good last season. His 5.5 yards per touch bested backfield counterpart Najee Harris‘ 4.2. However, Harris was drafted by Mike Tomlin and company in the first round in 2021 and they have shown an allegiance to feeding Harris touches.
I suspect Warren will elicit fantasy manager frustration in a Bijan Robinson-lite fashion.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
Since Andy Reid became the Chiefs’ head coach in 2013, a Kansas City rushing leader has never improved their total yards the following season… until this season.
Pacheco led the team in 2022 with 830 rushing yards and finished last season with 935. Can he continue the unprecedented and do it again?
Per FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR), Isiah Pacheco is 2024’s RB11 — too high for me. I’m assuming the Chiefs cut bait on Clyde Edwards-Helaire and bring in another difference-maker to compete in a committee with Pacheco.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS)
The Washington Commanders hired defensive-minded Dan Quinn as their head coach, tapping Kliff Kingsbury to run the offense. Kingsbury, as the Arizona Cardinals head coach from 2019-22, never had a 1,000-yard rusher.
Sure, Kyler Murray being a mobile quarterback had something to do with this. However, Washington has the second pick in this year’s draft and both Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are plenty mobile themselves.
Kingsbury’s offensive philosophy seems to generate a high-volume passing attack. In his four seasons in Arizona, they averaged the 13th-most passing attempts per game.
Combine the aforementioned factors with Washington’s current roster with the expectation of being one of the worst teams in the league, and we have a situation incredibly difficult for a running back to thrive.
Veteran RBs With Uncertain Roles
I’m calling this tier of overvalued running backs: veterans likely to land on a new team where they won’t be the lead back.
Question: What do Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Dalvin Cook and Jamaal Williams have in common?
Answer: They finished in the top 10 in running back rushing yards in 2022 and ended up on new teams in 2023 (minus Jacobs) and finished with significantly fewer rushing yards. Josh Jacobs led all four with 805 rushing yards, 25th in the NFL last season.
Committee RBs to Monitor
Unrestricted free-agent RBs I suspect will start next season in a committee, at best:
- Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
- D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI)
- Devin Singletary (RB – HOU)
- Gus Edwards (RB – BAL)
- Zack Moss (RB – IND)
- Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE)
- D’Onta Foreman (RB – CHI)
The expectation is to fade these players at their average draft position (ADP) this summer once free agency and the draft shake out. Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley are also impeding unrestricted free agents. Their age and talent level are still likely to lead a backfield in 2024, however.
