Nothing kicks off the start of a brand-new football season better than NFL free agency, which is sure to involve plenty of player movement.
Teams can place their franchise/transition tags on players as early as February 20, setting the stage for a wild off-season sooner than you think. The NFL never ceases to provide entertainment for all 365 days of the calendar year, and 2024 is shaping up to be no different. Free agency officially kicks off on March 13th. But deals will likely already be in place with the legal tampering period starting Monday, March 11th at noon.
So grab your popcorn and get ready for the free agency frenzy with the 2024 free agency primer. I’ll break down the most notable impending free agents across the four major fantasy positions – with some potential trade/cut candidates to widen the scope – through the lens of fantasy football to prepare you for the ensuing March Madness. This primer should also help you make optimal trades in your dynasty leagues, bet NFL futures and unearth values in early best-ball drafts before the chaos occurs.
QBs likely on the MOVE
I want to point out that the betting markets are on the Atlanta Falcons as the most logical team to address the QB in free agency/trade. Each QB with “Next Team” odds per DraftKings Sportsbook has the Falcons listed with the shortest or second-shortest odds to land either Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or Kirk Cousins.
Justin Fields
The writing is on the wall that the Bears are going to trade Justin Fields. I wrote about it my first 2024 NFL Mock Draft. But to whom…is the real question. As mentioned at the top, Atlanta is the team with the hottest QB trade market (+150 to land Fields). And if you recall, the Falcons were also in the QB market when Fields came out of the draft, ultimately to pass on him for Kyle Pitts with the fourth-overall pick. If they didn’t take him then under GM Terry Fontenot, what has the Bears QB shown over the last three years to make him worth giving up premium draft capital for? That’s a question the Falcons brass will be asking.
And schematically speaking, Fields hardly fits the mold of any QB we have seen in the McVay scheme. And we saw the disaster that Trey Lance ended up being a “dual threat” in this offense under Kyle Shanahan.
So even though on paper it seems like it’s an easy ‘fit’ to put Fields in Atlanta, I am not so sure the new brass sees it that way after foregoing their chance to draft him back in 2021. The optics are certainly different, but the fact that they never showed that much love for Fields back in 2021…as me hesitant to say they will go out and acquire him under the same GM and owner.
The Raiders (+500 to land Fields) could also be a landing spot, considering they just hired the Bears’ former OC, Luke Getsy, as their OC. But I’d hardly say the relationship (at least on the surface) between Fields/Getsy was so strong that it would signify a trade. However, looking back at some comments that Getsy made about Fields before Week 18 – great relationship, inspiration, belief – the Raiders might not be the worst spot for Fields to land. After all, he did progress again as a passer – even if it wasn’t perfect – and another year in the Getsy system with more weapons in Las Vegas could what be EXACTLY what Fields needs to make a Year 4 leap. Don’t forget that Fields’ season could have gone much smoother had he not suffered a dislocated thumb injury in the middle of the year.
Fields knows he has a believer in him with Getsy, and that’s not necessarily the case with the remaining Bears coaching staff, especially under new OC Shane Waldron.
And if Fields is reunited with Getsy in Las Vegas, we could see a fantasy football bonanza. From Week 4 onward in that offense, Fields averaged nearly 22 fantasy points per game.
Also, Raiders assistant GM Champ Kelly was the previous Bears’ assistant director of player personnel when the team selected Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft before joining the Raiders in 2022 as the assistant GM. He was hired as the interim general manager after the firing of general manager Dave Ziegler in 2023.
The other team I think could throw their hat in the Fields’ ring is the Commanders (+2200). Kliff Kingsbury runs the Air Raid offense, and Fields’ dual-threat ability – similar to that of Kyler Murray – makes it a potential fit. Also possible the Raiders looked at Kingsbury before Getsy was a move made in preparation for a trade for Fields.
Russell Wilson
Speaking of Waldron, I think there’s a non-zero chance that Russell Wilson could land back under Waldron in Chicago. Wilson could sign a super cheap deal on the veteran minimum with the Bears, as Denver will be on the books for the majority of his contract hit. I think his listed odds at +10000 to land in Chicago are pretty ludicrous, given the relationship he has with Waldron.
Wilson initially was drawn to Waldron due to his experience on Sean McVay’s coaching staff and familiarity with McVay’s offensive system. So, in addition to Watson, Wilson is, therefore, theoretically tied to other McVay-needy QB teams such as the Vikings/Falcons.
The last time we saw Wilson play decent football was under Waldron in 2020-2021, when he was first hired by the Seahawks and finished QB7 (23.3) and QB13 (17.2) in points per game.
But if it’s not Waldron or another McVay scheme, you can consider me very skeptical that Wilson can turn things around after failing to hit 18 fantasy points per game the past three seasons. Keep in mind that Wilson was third in the NFL in passing TD% last season and finished as QB15 in points per game.
Mac Jones
If I had to bet on where Mac Jones gets traded to? It would be Atlanta. Because it’s the same old song and dance with these Alabama QBs in the pros. When they are put into favorable systems with weapons, they can be average to above-average passers at the NFL level.
That’s what Mac Jones was as a rookie and what he can still do entering his fourth season. But it’s just not going to happen in New England, given the current infrastructure of the offense/roster. He’s regressed the last two seasons after a stellar rookie year due in part largely to a lack of any supporting cast, in my estimation.
He’s not good enough to be the reason an offense succeeds. But he can succeed in a McVay scheme throwing the ball to Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson…that much I can tell you.
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