The Super Bowl matchup is a contest between heavyweights and not a lopsided affair. The 49ers and Chiefs are top-heavy. Still, they each have intriguing value choices, too. The bargain picks are necessary to jam studs into the showdown lineups.
NFL DFS Showdown Primer & Picks
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is the crown jewel of San Francisco's star-studded offense. He's a game-script-proof stud. Still, CMC's matchup as a runner is tantalizing. According to Sumer Sports, the Chiefs allowed the fourth-most Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush in the regular season. Conversely, the 49ers generated the most EPA per rush.
Understandably, teams have attacked the Chiefs on the ground when able in the postseason. Per RotoViz's pace app, Kansas City's opponents have had a 49% situation-neutral rush rate in the playoffs. The 49ers have had a 44% situation-neutral rush rate in two playoff games and could lean into the running attack even more frequently in this game.
Regarding Kansas City's leaky run defense, Kyle Juszczyk could be critical for San Francisco's running success.
CMC should eat. Additionally, a more run-heavy approach could open the door for Elijah Mitchell toting the rock a few times. San Francisco's speedy backup running back also has contingent value as CMC's direct backup. Mitchell would be thrust into a more significant role if CMC were injured.
Juszczyk's running-game involvement is likely to come exclusively as a blocker. Still, an uptick in playing time would also set the stage for some pass-catching involvement. San Francisco's stud fullback had two receptions for 33 receiving yards in the NFC Championship game, his fifth contest this season with multiple receptions and over 20 receiving yards. So, Juszczyk is a capable pass-catcher.
Brock Purdy is the triggerman when the 49ers take to the air. Kansas City's pass defense has been stout. Still, Purdy has thrived when the trio of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have played at least 56% of San Francisco's offensive snaps. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in that 12-game sample (Week 1, 4, 5, 10 through 17 and the NFC Championship game), Purdy completed 71.1% of his 325 pass attempts for 3,269 yards, 10.1 yards per attempt, 27 touchdowns, and seven interceptions at an 8.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Purdy isn't a game-manager, no matter how much his detractors want to paint that picture. Still, he's not a must-use player in a challenging matchup for him and a cushy one for CMC.
Aiyuk is the odd person out of San Francisco's suggested superstar pass-catchers. He's San Francisco's No. 1 wide receiver. Yet, that distinction is a deterrent for his DFS value this week.
Samuel is San Francisco's most exciting passing-game option. First, according to The 33rd Team, he had a 68.0% slot rate and a 17.1% wide rate in the regular season versus 68.9% and 28.1% for Aiyuk. Second, from Week 11 through Week 18, the Chiefs held perimeter wideouts to 7.0 DK and 5.5 FD points per game while ceding 18.3 and 13.9 to slots. Samuel's lower perimeter rate is ideal for his scoring outlook as a receiver.
Additionally, Samuel is a weapon as a runner. In the 12-game sample, when Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle had at least a 56% offensive snap share, Samuel toted the rock 31 times for 170 yards and four touchdowns.
In that same period, Kittle was a productive pass-catching weapon, tallying 42 receptions, 699 receiving yards, 2.06 yards per route run (Y/RR) and six touchdowns on 59 targets. Interestingly, Juszczyk had 17 targets, 15 receptions, 143 receiving yards and two touchdowns in those games.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs have had a balanced offense in the playoffs, with a 54% situation-neutral pass rate and 46% situation-neutral rush rate. They could put the ball in Patrick Mahomes's hands more often this week, though. San Francisco's opponents have had a 59% situation-neutral pass rate in the playoffs.
The matchup isn't easy for Mahomes. Regardless, the otherworldly signal-caller can make a mockery of even elite defenses. For example, in the AFC Championship game, he completed 30 of 39 pass attempts for 241 yards and one touchdown against Baltimore's supremely talented pass defense.
Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are, far and away, Kansas City's most productive pass-catchers. Moreover, Mahomes has force-fed them the ball in the playoffs. In three games in the postseason, Kelce has had 27 targets, 23 receptions, 262 receiving yards, 2.59 Y/RR and three touchdowns on 101 routes, and Rice has had 23, 20, 223, 2.21 and one on 101 routes.
No one else has had double-digit targets, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 108 receiving yards were the third-most on the team. MVS was also third on the Chiefs in routes (76). Justin Watson was fourth in routes (65). Sadly, he's parlayed his route participation into only five targets, three receptions and 36 scoreless yards. Regardless, Watson's route participation is enough to warrant showdown consideration.
Skyy Moore was activated from the injured reserve (IR) this week. He's fully participated in practice. The second-year wide receiver slipped down the passing-game hierarchy before his multi-week absence and isn't a shoo-in to be active for the Super Bowl. While he could steal some work from MVS and Watson, the small-ish, non-field-stretching wideout is a more significant threat to Mecole Hardman's and Richie James's tiny offensive roles.
Noah Gray is a viable punt. He's run the sixth-most routes (46), had the third-most targets (nine), tied for the third-most receptions (six) and had the fourth-most receiving yards (44) for the Chiefs in the playoffs.
Isiah Pacheco is Kansas City's featured running back, even if Jerick McKinnon can suit up. The second-year running back could lose some passing-game work to McKinnon, but Andy Reid called the veteran running back's chances to be out there in the Super Bowl "slim." However, McKinnon was limited in practice on Wednesday, leaving some hope he'll play. McKinnon is an intriguing minimum salary option at DK if he plays.
Still, Pacheco is the exciting, high-ceiling choice in Kansas City's backfield. In the sophomore running back's previous five games, he had 92 rush attempts, 410 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 18 targets, 17 receptions, 62 receiving yards and one touchdown reception.
Furthermore, San Francisco's run defense is below average. They were tied for the sixth-most EPA per rush allowed in the regular season. So, it's been a perplexing decision for San Francisco's opponents to have a 59% situation-neutral pass rate in the playoffs. The Chiefs might choose to attack their unimposing run defense.
Final Thoughts: CMC is the most alluring Captain/MVP. However, Mahomes and Pacheco are rock-solid picks in the second tier, and Kelce, Samuel and Rice are sweet options slightly behind them. Finally, balanced lineups or those tilting toward either team are the top constructions, but a CMC with a Chiefs onslaught isn't outrageous.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
