The MLB offseason has featured some intriguing player movement. Many of the signings were lateral for the fantasy value of players. However, other players had notable value shifts, creating winners and losers in free agency.
MLB Free Agency Winners & Losers
Free Agency Winners
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were active in free agency and the trade market. They signed Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernandez and James Paxton. They also traded for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot. The collection of moves plus the incumbent talent in the lineup acts as a force multiplier for the fantasy value of the returning and incoming players.
Dropping Ohtani and Hernandez into a lineup that already had Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Max Muncy and others increases the value for all of the hitters. In addition, the offensive firepower will help provide runs for their rotation, increasing their odds of earning wins. So, instead of highlighting every individual player from the Dodgers, highlighting the entire team as a winner in free agency is appropriate.
Craig Kimbrel (BAL – RP) – 165.5 ADP
The relief pitcher carousel was kind to Kimbrel. According to FanGraphs, the veteran reliever had 23 saves, a 3.26 ERA, 3.28 xERA, 3.58 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.1 BB%, 33.8 K% and 31.0 CSW% for the Phillies last season. He should close games for the Orioles.
Kimbrel isn’t the dominant reliever he was earlier in his career. Still, he had rock-solid ERA estimators, a superb strikeout rate and excellent plate discipline numbers last season. Kimbrel is a valuable RP2 or RP3 on fantasy squads this season.
Rhys Hoskins (MIL – 1B) – 202.8 ADP
Hoskins tore his ACL last spring, costing him the entire 2023 season. Fortunately, the slugging first baseman shouldn’t have significant limitations in his first spring on the Brewers.
In 2022, Hoskins hit 30 homers with a .246 batting average, .239 xBA and .332 OBP. According to Baseball Savant, among 252 qualified hitters in 2022, Hoskins was tied for 62nd in barrels per plate appearances rate (7.0 Brls/PA%), tied for 79th in flyball and line drive exit velocity (94.2 mph) and had an 18.1-degree launch angle.
Hoskins has above-average power and hits the ball in the air. His landing spot was ideal for tapping into his greatest fantasy attribute. American Family Field has the 10th-highest park factor for right-handed homers (1.080).
Hoskins should also be a run producer this season since he projects to hit in the heart of Milwaukee’s lineup. He’s a desirable cheap power source.
Free Agency Losers
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN – 1B) – 121.3 ADP
- Noelvi Marte (CIN – 3B) – 178.3 ADP
- Jonathan India (CIN – 2B) – 195.0 ADP
Cincinnati’s offense is deep. The depth is ideal for their outlook in real life. Sadly, the surprising signing of Jeimer Candelario will squeeze Encarnacion-Strand, Marte and India for playing time.
All three highlighted Reds are intriguing players. Nevertheless, their floors are lowered because of the crowded offense. Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl are the only players on the club projected to have over 500 at-bats this season because of the playing time crunch. As a result, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte and India are less appealing in leagues with weekly lineup changes than in those with daily changes.
J.D. Martinez (FA – OF) – 205.8 ADP
According to the value-based ranking (VBR) metric, Martinez was the 43rd-ranked hitter last season. After a power outage in 2022, Martinez recaptured his thunderous stroke in 2023, slugging 33 homers runs in 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers.
Martinez didn’t entirely sell out for power, recording a .271 batting average, albeit with a 31.1 K%. The veteran hitter had 103 RBIs in LA’s loaded lineup. Despite the excellent season at the dish, Martinez is still a free agent.
He can’t provide fantasy value unless he’s on a team. In addition, Martinez is unlikely to join a club with as talented of a lineup as he was a part of last season, reducing his potential for runs and RBIs. It hasn’t been a kind offseason to Martinez’s fantasy value.
Aroldis Chapman (PIT – RP) – 331.3 ADP
The closer carousel wasn’t as kind to Chapman as the previously discussed Kimbrel. The veteran lefty had six saves, a 3.09 ERA, 2.84 xERA, 2.59 xFIP, 2.95 SIERA, 1.25 WHIP, 14.5 BB%, 41.4 K%, 47.7 GB% and 36.3 CSW% in 2023.
Nonetheless, Chapman didn’t parlay his success into a closing gig. Instead, he signed a one-year deal with the Pirates. David Bednar is entrenched as Pittsburgh’s closer. Chapman could secure some saves on days Bednar is unavailable or if the righty is used in a high-leverage situation before the ninth inning. The role isn’t substantial enough to make Chapman a valuable asset in leagues without holds or holds-plus-saves categories.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
