8 Hitters the Experts Avoid Drafting at ADP (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

When preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy baseball rankings compared to average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Let’s dive into a few notable players below.

2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Advice

Rank	Player	Team	Positions	Overall	Best	Worst	Avg	Std Dev	ADP	vs. ADP
5	Mookie Betts	LAD	2B,RF	5	2	10	5	1.6	2	-3
45	Nico Hoerner	CHC	2B,SS	65	30	64	45.2	7.2	59	-6
47	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	LF,DH	72	35	72	49.5	9.4	60	-12
51	Alex Bregman	HOU	3B	77	42	72	52.6	5	68	-9
58	Ha-Seong Kim	SD	2B,3B,SS	90	45	108	60.1	18.4	81	-9
83	Cedric Mullins II	BAL	CF	134	34	112	84.7	9.3	127	-7
90	Luis Arraez	MIA	2B	143	66	116	92.1	10.8	126	-17
98	Max Muncy	LAD	3B	154	58	129	101.1	15	144	-10

Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Kyle Schwarber (OF – PHI)

Kyle Schwarber is one of the most predictable players in fantasy baseball. He will hit bombs (40+). He will score runs (100+). He is going to drive in teammates (100+). And he will absolutely crater your batting average (.197 in 2023). These stats seem like a “The sun rises in the East” type of guarantee. Schwarber does get on base, thanks to a 17.5% walk rate, and he continued to hit atop a powerful Phillies batting order. You just need to decide if you’re punting the average category before you take him because you don’t get to be surprised by it later.

Cedric Mullins II (OF – BAL)

In 2023, by April’s end, Cedric Mullins kicked off the season with 11 stolen bases. However, persistent injuries hampered his performance, resulting in a modest .233/.305/.416 and only 19 steals. If healthy, Mullins has the potential for 30 steals in 2024, but his poor batting may relegate him lower in the lineup of the promising Orioles team. His position may not be as secure as it has been in the past because of the wealth of talent in the Baltimore pipeline.

Luis Arraez (2B – MIA)

Last season was a landmark year for Luis Arraez. He became one of baseball’s best hitters known for his exceptional contact skills, underlined by his .354 batting average, .393 on-base percentage, and .469 slugging percentage. He tallied 203 hits and 10 home runs over 617 plate appearances. Arraez’s success is attributed to his elite strike-zone recognition and smart swing decisions. While chances are high that he won’t hit .354 again, his xBA was still .325, and he is in the 100th percentile in K% and Whiff%. Arraez is THE stereotypical “empty batting average” player, but he is a nice offset to a power-only guy.

What is Fantasy Baseball?

Fantasy baseball is an online game where participants act as managers of virtual baseball teams based on real-life Major League Baseball (MLB) players. The performance of these players in actual games determines the results in the fantasy league. It’s a blend of skill, strategy, and a little bit of luck, akin to the real-world decisions team managers must make.

Basic Strategy for Fantasy Baseball Success

1. Understand Your League’s Format and Scoring

Before drafting your team, it’s essential to understand the scoring system and rules of your specific league, as this will influence your drafting and management strategy. Knowing whether you’re in a points-based, category-based, or head-to-head league will guide you in selecting players whose strengths align with the scoring system.

2. Drafting Your Team Wisely

A solid draft is the foundation of a successful season. Here are a few tips for the drafting phase:

Balanced Team: Ensure you have a balanced team with a mix of power hitters, average hitters, speedsters, starting pitchers, and relievers.
Position Scarcity: Be aware of the depth of talent at each position. Some positions, like shortstop, may have fewer high-quality players, making it beneficial to draft a top player at that position early.
High-Floor Players: Early in the draft, focus on players with a proven track record of consistency.
Upside Picks: In the later rounds, look for “upside” players. These are athletes who have the potential to outperform their draft position.

3. In-Season Management

Stay Active: Constantly look for ways to improve your team through waivers, trades, and free-agent pickups.
Mind the Matchups: Pay attention to player matchups, platoon splits, and ballparks. Starting a pitcher in a hitter-friendly park, for example, can be risky.
Injury Management: Stay on top of player injuries and have backups ready for your key players.