While the 2024 fantasy football redraft season is still months away, it’s never too early to prepare. The best way to prepare for draft season is by doing mock drafts. Much will change over the next few months. Yet, here is my first fantasy football mock draft of the season.
I am picking 11th in this 12-team, half-point PPR scoring mock draft. The lineup for this mock draft is one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one flex, and six bench spots.
Early 2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft
1.11 – Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
Kyren Williams could see his draft stock severely fall in the offseason if the Rams spend significant money in free agency or draft capital at the running back position. However, that seems unlikely, given how the former Notre Dame star played in 2023. He was the RB2 on a points-per-game (PPG) basis, averaging nearly three more points per game than any other running back not named Christian McCaffrey. Williams is a first-round lock if Los Angeles doesn’t add anyone meaningful in the offseason.
2.02 – Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
Some fantasy players will avoid drafting two players from the same team with their first two draft picks. On the other hand, I couldn’t care less as long I’m drafting from a good offense. Puka Nacua was a league winner last season, ending the year as the WR4, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game. The former BYU receiver broke two rookie records, including one that had stood for over 60 years. While Cooper Kupp should return in 2024, Nacua is the new No. 1 wide receiver in Los Angeles.
3.11 – DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
While he wants Justin Fields back as his quarterback in 2024, D.J. Moore is set up to succeed regardless of who is under center for Chicago. The star wide receiver had a career year last season, averaging 14 fantasy points per game. He set career highs in every category despite playing 4.5 games with Tyson Bagent. Moore finished fifth in air-yards share (42.2%) and second in the NFL in receiving yards market share (39.9%) last season (per Fantasy Points Data). He should get drafted as a top-10 wide receiver next year.
4.02 – Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
Since this mock draft has three starting wide receiver slots, I couldn’t pass on Rashee Rice early in the fourth round. The former SMU star could be Patrick Mahomes‘ No. 1 target next season, even if Travis Kelce returns. Rice was the WR6 over the final six weeks of the fantasy season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game. More importantly, he had a 30% target per route run rate (per Fantasy Points Data) during those six weeks, 10% higher than the future Hall of Fame tight end.
5.11 – Christian Kirk (WR – JAX)
The fantasy football outlook for everyone in Jacksonville will drastically change depending on whether or not Calvin Ridley returns in 2024. Christian Kirk will reclaim the Jaguars’ No. 1 wide receiver role if the veteran is playing elsewhere next season. He had this role in 2022 and ended the year as the WR11, averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game. Unless the team adds Trevor Lawrence‘s former college buddy Tee Higgins in free agency, Kirk would have one of the safest floors in fantasy football.
6.02 – Tyjae Spears (RB -TEN)
Tennessee hasn’t ruled out the possibility that Derrick Henry could return next season. However, that seems unlikely, giving Tyjae Spears the inside track to be the new starting running back. The former Tulane star finished third on the team in targets as a rookie (70). More importantly, he ranked 10th in yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.92) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). If the Titans can improve its offensive line in the offseason, Spears could have a massive sophomore-year breakout.
7.11 – James Conner (RB – ARI)
Many won’t draft the veteran because of his age (he turns 29 in May) and his injury history. However, James Conner will be a favorite draft target of mine if he returns to Arizona in 2024. He has finished no lower than the RB10 in both the past two seasons. Since the Cardinals are in the middle of a rebuilding project, they likely won’t invest much in the running back position this offseason and let Conner finish his contract once again as the featured guy.
8.02 – Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Last year was a disappointing one for Rhamondre Stevenson. He averaged a career-low four yards per rushing attempt. More importantly, Stevenson’s role in the passing game also dissipated, earning a 22% target per route run rate compared to 29% in 2022 (per Fantasy Points Data). However, he is prime for a bounce-back season with a new coaching staff running the show. Don’t be surprised if Stevenson has a breakout year in the final season of his rookie contract.
9.11 – Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
Kyler Murray played in only eight games last season, recovering from a torn ACL the year before. The star quarterback played well. Yet, fantasy players should have high expectations for him this upcoming season. Murray averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game last year, slightly higher than his 2022 season average. Furthermore, he averaged the same passing touchdowns per game as the year before despite playing with a depleted wide receiver core. If the Cardinals land Marvin Harrison Jr. in the NFL Draft, Murray will have top-five upside in 2024.
10.02 – Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS)
Unfortunately, Jahan Dotson was arguably the biggest draft bust from last season. The former Penn State star struggled to connect with Sam Howell. He averaged 5.9 fantasy points per game, down from the 9.4 he averaged as a rookie. Furthermore, Dotson had fewer receiving yards in 2023 compared to 2022, despite playing in five more games and seeing 22 more targets. However, the Commanders will pick a quarterback during the NFL Draft. Hopefully, the rookie passer can get on the same page as Dotson.
11.11 – Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL)
Waiting to draft a tight end is one of the most common practices in fantasy football. Jake Ferguson won’t be a league winner but the former Wisconsin star will provide fantasy players with consistent low-end TE1 production because of his offensive role. Last year, he finished second on the team in receptions (71), targets (102) and receiving Yards (761), only behind CeeDee Lamb. If Brandin Cooks or Michael Gallup don’t return in 2024, Ferguson’s role on offense will only increase.
12.02 – Zamir White (RB – LV)
Reportedly, the Raiders are open to keeping Josh Jacobs around at the right price. If the star running back is playing elsewhere in 2024, Zamir White won’t be this cheap come draft time. The young running back barely saw the field with Jacobs healthy. Yet, he was the RB8 in his four weeks as the starter, averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game. Head coach Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball and play defense, making his starting running back valuable for fantasy players.
13.11 – Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)
The Bills’ wide receiver core could look drastically different next season. Gabe Davis is a free agent this offseason and might not return. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs‘ future with the team is up in the air. Even if the star receiver is back, Buffalo must be worried about his late-season struggles in back-to-back years. However, Khalil Shakir showed potential to end the season, averaging 5.3 receptions on six targets for 60 receiving yards and 12.7 fantasy points per game over his final three contests, including the playoffs.
14.02 – Keaton Mitchell (RB – BAL)
Baltimore’s backfield will undergo significant changes this offseason, as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are upcoming free agents. However, Keaton Mitchell will have a role regardless of who else is in the backfield. The former East Carolina star averaged 8.4 yards per rushing attempt in limited work as a rookie. He had the highest explosive run rate (14.9%) among running backs with at least 35 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Mitchell won’t have a featured role but has enough upside to be worthy of a late-round pick.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- QB2s w/ Top-5 Upside: Feb
- Players to Avoid
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
