Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White had another productive game in Week 18, with 25 carries for 112 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 25 yards. White also had 2 targets, 1 reception for 9 yards. Played 73% of the snaps.
Aidan O’Connell completed 20 of 31 attempts for 244 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions, with a long pass of 47 yards, and a quarterback rating of 110.1. He will compete for the starting job in 2024.
Rookie Tre Tucker hauled in 5 targets (18% target share), 5 receptions for 79 yards, with a long of 47 yards. Air yards leader. To go along with a 64% snap share. He will be a big-play piece in the Raiders’ offense next season, after posting two spiked weeks in his final four games. He finished his rookie season 4th in yards per reception (17.4) in the NFL.
The team leaned into Tucker heavily as the WR3 in this offense, with Hunter Renfrow being a total cast-off in this Raiders offense. Have to imagine Renfrow is elsewhere in 2024, where he might be able to salvage his fantasy stock that has been on life support.
Jakobi Meyers commanded 5 targets (18% target share), 3 receptions for 61 yards, 1 touchdown, with a long of 33 yards.
Meyers’ underrated talent was on full display all season in 2023, as the first-year Raider scored 8 receiving TDs on a 21% target share and 15 red-zone targets (23rd). He also rushed for two scores and threw a TD. He was a do-it-all weapon for Las Vegas.
Meyers, after joining the Raiders, quickly became a vital part of their passing attack. He caught 71 passes from 106 targets, totaling 807 yards and achieving an 11.4-yard average per reception. Meyers proved to be a red-zone asset, tying with Adams for 8 receiving touchdowns. After failing comically to find the end zone as a member of the Patriots for most of his time spent there, Meyers couldn’t stop scoring in 2023. This will likely regress next season as he scored four more TDs over expectation. Although not likely enough to remove him from the fantasy WR3 conversation, given Meyers’ three straight finishes as a top-30 fantasy WR. He was also a top-36 WR in expected points per game.
Meyers accumulated 183.1 fantasy points over the season, resulting in an average of 11.4 points per game, ranking him 25th among wide receivers in points per game. Meyers was also the WR25 with O’Connell from Weeks 9-18, averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game (33rd).
Davante Adams corralled 8 targets (30% target share), 5 receptions for 46 yards, 1 touchdown, with a long of 17 yards. 3 red-zone targets.
Adams showed no signs of slowing down despite the QB carousel in Las Vegas. 45% air yard share (nearly 1,900 air yards, 2nd among all WRs) and a league-leading 33% target share with 103 catches on a whopping 175 targets, he notched 1,144 yards at an average of 11.1 yards per reception. Adams’ ability to find the end zone was on full display as he secured 8 touchdowns, with the second-most red-zone targets in the NFL (29).
In fantasy terms, Adams racked up 213.9 points, averaging 12.6 points per game, which placed him as the 18th wide receiver in points per game and WR11 overall. Even at 31 years old, he’s shown to still be QB-proof to be a high-end fantasy WR2.
The only concern fantasy drafters should have regarding Adams is that posted his worst YAC/reception since his second season in the NFL (3.3). That is a clear sign of a decline in his production that should not be completely ignored.
If O’Connell returns as the starter, that is where Adams will likely end up in 2024. Adams was the WR12 with O’Connell from Weeks 9-18, averaging 13.0 fantasy points per game (15th). It’s a pretty impressive feat given the fact that the Raiders essentially fired their offensive staff after letting go of Josh McDaniels earlier in the season.
Austin Hooper had 5 targets, 4 receptions for 39 yards, with a long of 21 yards. Hooper played a full-time role in all the games that rookie Michael Mayer missed.
Mayer will be firmly back in the TE1 chair next season, with Hooper and Jesper Horstead slated for free agency. From Week 5 until his injury in Week 15, Mayer was hovering around a strong 81% snap rate (top-10) while running a route on 56% of the dropbacks.
Fantasy TE21 over this span averaging 5.5 fantasy points per game. Essentially, Cade Otton (as a similar every-down player) who is not a focal point in his offense.
It was hardly a special rookie season for Mayer, especially considering how the other rookie tight ends did in 2023. But Mayer’s situation was by far the worst between elite target competition and rookie QB play. Essentially, he was fighting an uphill battle to produce in Year 1 as a tight end.
The fact that he carved out a starting role as the season progressed is a good sign, along with solid efficiency metrics. 6th in YAC/reception.
Still, Mayer will need some changes/injuries to earn more targets in 2024, and some upgraded QB play to be fantasy-relevant.
With Josh Jacobs hitting free agency, White has made his case to be the Day 1 starter of the Black Hole in 2024. In White’s four starts, he averaged 14.1 points and just under 100 rushing yards per game while logging just under 70% of the offensive snaps and 23-plus touches per game. Works in his favor that Antonio Pierce is returning as the head coach.
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