Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Jacksonville Jaguars
Their running game totaled 82 yards, with Travis Etienne Jr. leading the way with 57 yards on 16 carries in Week 18. ETN caught 5 balls for 30 yards on 6 targets while playing 66% of the snaps.
Etienne’s strong start fizzled out as the season progressed, with the entire Jaguars offense regressing after their Week 9 bye week. This coincided with a lot of injuries across the Jaguars OL combined with a much tougher slate of opponents. Cam Robinson (entering a contract year) missed Weeks 12-16. Ezra Cleveland missed games between Weeks 7-14. Walker Little missed Week 14.
Etienne was the RB3 overall and in points per game (18.8) through the first 8 games of the season. 81% snap rate (3rd) and 54% route participation (seventh).
After Week 9, the Jags RB was RB16 averaging 11.4 points per game. Snap rate fell to 67% as did his route participation (47%).
Even so, the season-long usage was excellent for Etienne, ranking 6th in snap rate and 7th in route participation overall. His strong start still rewarded him as the RB3 overall, while finishing 8th in points per game.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed 29 of 43 passes for 280 yards, throwing two touchdowns and two interceptions.
The receiving corps was led by Calvin Ridley, who caught 6 passes for 106 yards and a touchdown (10 targets). 150-plus air yards in typical Ridley fashion.
Calvin Ridley‘s 2023 season deserves a deep dive. It’s as bizarre as they come.
Ridley secured a pivotal role in the Jaguars’ offense, catching 76 passes on 136 targets for 1,016 yards, averaging 13.4 yards per reception. Nearly 1,800 air yards on a 22.5% target share and 36% air yards share. He scored 8 touchdowns, highlighting his red-zone effectiveness (3rd in red-zone targets).
Across 17 games, he totaled 191.9 fantasy points, averaging 11.3 points per game, making him a solid WR2 in fantasy formats. WR17 overall but WR26 in points per game.
But anybody who rostered Ridley knew this was a roller coaster season for a player who had missed so much time before this year. He and Lawrence were constantly not on the same page. Especially in high-leverage situations.
Ridley led the entire NFL in end zone targets (24). He was the WR10 in expected fantasy points per game. But he never fully took advantage of his elite opportunities to churn out a fantasy WR1 season, even though it was there for the taking.
When he and Christian Kirk were both healthy Weeks 1-12, Kirk was the target leader (21% vs 20%), while Ridley was the primary downfield threat. However, his fantasy points per game were the same at 11.3 versus Kirk’s 11-point average.
There’s no doubt that rhetoric around Ridley will be negative heading into 2024 after the human hype piece failed to deliver. But the only reason Ridley “busted” was because he was getting impossible expectations placed on him for a player who hadn’t played since 2021. He showed enough “good” in my estimate to acknowledge that the talent is still there and that we as a drafting community may have just been a year too early on Ridley. He won’t turn 30 until late December. I’d buy the dip. Assuming he returns to the Jaguars as an unrestricted free agent.
Christian Kirk played an integral role in the Jaguars’ passing game, with 57 receptions on 85 targets (21% target share) for 787 yards, averaging 13.8 yards per catch. He showcased his deep-threat capabilities with a long catch of 57 yards and 23 receptions of 20+ yards. Kirk found the end zone 3 times during the season.
In 12 games, Kirk accumulated 121.8 fantasy points, averaging 11 points per game, positioning him as a reliable flex option in fantasy leagues. WR28 in points per game.
When he and Ridley were both healthy, Kirk posted the higher target share at 21%. 23% target rate per route run overall.
Zay Jones caught 6 passes for 47 yards on 9 targets in Week 18.
Jones had a moderate impact with 34 receptions on 64 targets, gathering 321 yards at an average of 9.4 yards per reception. He was hurt the entire season with three different injuries, so I’d call his 2023 campaign a wash. Jones only scored 2 touchdowns despite a 23% target rate per route run.
Playing in 9 games, he earned 61.1 fantasy points, averaging 6.8 points per game. WR62 in points per game.
But I’d look more at his final four games as a better representation of what we can expect from a healthy Jones. Without Kirk, Jones averaged 8 fantasy points per game and 17.3 expected points per game. Similar to Ridley, there is a stark difference between expected and actual production.
Evan Engram also contributed significantly with 10 receptions for 79 yards and a touchdown (13 targets). After missing chunks of games as a member of the New York Giants, Engram has been a bill of health in Duval County and was extremely consistent on the Jaguars in 2023.
He posted a team-high 23% target share, catching 114 balls for 963 yards and 4 TDs. TE6 in points per game (10.2) while finishing first in receptions and targets at the position.
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