The easiest way to kick off any way-too-early 2024 fantasy football rankings is to take a look back at what happened the year before. What worked, what didn’t work – but most importantly, addressing the “WHY” behind the successes and failures and using that as a driving force to make smart draft decisions next season.

That’s how I’ll start the breakdown of the quarterbacks for early 2024 fantasy football rankings as we look ahead to the 2024 best ball season. Because with best ball, it’s never too early to start drafting. Here is a complete look at my Early 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, Tiers & Notes. Below we dive into a few notable names.

• 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2024 NFL Draft Guide

Early 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, Tiers & Notes

Strategy

My 2024 quarterback draft strategy follows a pseudo-late-round QB approach. It’s the same as last season, which was why I was overexposed to Lamar Jackson and underweight on Patrick Mahomes in 2023.

I want an elite fantasy quarterback at the best price. That helps me capture a ton of upside while also limiting bust potential with my selections. And when it comes to identifying QBs with elite ceilings you can quantify it by aiming for QBs that have shown the capability of scoring 20-plus fantasy points per game.

As you’ll see in the rankings, the guys at the top are consistently averaging north of the 20-point average threshold. And they all have a ton of value added due to their abilities as rushers. Even in 2024, the mobile QBs reign supreme.

Other things to keep in mind, beware of TD regression. In 2022, five of the six highest-drafted QB busts were the passing TD leaders from the previous year. If you just copy-paste the TD passing leaders from 2022 – Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert – five of the eight were busts in 2023.

Also, new situations, coaches, receivers, etc., increase the chance that a player busts. The uncertainty is often viewed as untapped potential (which can be true), but the risk heightens substantially when it is already baked into an inflated ADP. Something I didn’t look enough into was the pairing between a team’s OC/HC and the QB. Is the pairing primed for sustained success? Or is the team just throwing something at the wall, hoping it sticks?

The other major theme with a lot of these QB busts is injuries. Whether it be to the quarterback or their supporting cast (pass-catchers and OL). Predicting injuries is easier said than done. But if you want to avoid drafting QB busts, it needs to be part of your drafting equation. 2023 was bad for QB injuries, but by the QBs nobody thought would be injured. The injury QBs to “fear” were Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson. They played the entire season. Matthew Stafford only missed one game. When it comes to injuries, I think we “think” more than we know. So instead of following the herd, be advantageous and embrace the injury discount for players coming off injuries. Note that this is different than players who get hurt during the preseason/training camp. A la, Joe Burrow.

2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Notes

4. Patrick Mahomes II KC

2023 is probably the worst we will see from him. His 2023 statistical output sticks out like a sore thumb compared to his previous seasons. First time in his NFL career that Mahomes finished outside the top-7 QBs. First time he has been below 20 points per game. Simply put, the Chiefs aren’t going to run back as weak an offensive WR unit in 2024. Mahomes will be firmly back in the QB1 overall discussion but at a fraction of the cost.

8. C.J. Stroud HOU

Stroud led the NFL in passing yards per game and TD-to-interception ratio. 23 TD passes and just 5 interceptions as a rookie. But the rushing is not there. That’s not great. Weapons? Good, but not world-beating. Stroud concerns me because of his likely inflated price tag in 2024. Slightly concerning that despite his amazing accolades, he was still UNDER 19 points per game. Also, there’s a potential the team loses OC Bobby Slowik. Stroud is a stud no doubt. But success in the NFL (and in fantasy football) is not always a linear path, with lofty expectations firmly set.

12 Kyler Murray ARI

QB11 in points per game and 10^th in expected points per game after returning from his torn ACL injury in 2023. 18.9 points per game (very close to Brock Purdy). Murray has been closer to his floor than his ceiling the last two seasons. He’s a candidate to jump back up into the top 5 conversation considering he has averaged 22 points per game from 2020-2021. Over 30 rushing yards per game last season. The Cardinals might be a sneaky team to take a major leap forward under Jonathan Gannon’s second season, especially if they equip Murray with more weapons through free agency and the NFL Draft.