Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Cleveland Browns
The Browns fell to the Texans in the first round of the postseason, getting blown out on the road. But for those that have followed Cleveland closely this season, their defense had been a completely different unit playing away from Ohio.
The backfield struggled to run the football as it did all season. Kareem Hunt scored rushing and receiving TDs near the goal line but rushed for only 26 yards on 8 carries.
Jerome Ford was equally ineffective, rushing 9 times for 17 yards and zero scores. Hunt also caught 5 balls on 6 targets, while Ford caught all 4 of his targets for 15 yards.
In 2023, Ford posted the third-worst rushing success rate (40%). But he will likely be slated for the main receiving role in the backfield in 2024 alongside Nick Chubb. Finished the season 7th among RBs in routes run.
Joe Flacco attempted 46 passes for 307 yards and 1 TD but threw two pick-sixes.
David Njoku was the target leader yet again, drawing another 11 looks from his veteran quarterback (26% target share). 7 catches for 93 yards.
Amari Cooper remained quiet in Week 19 but might have banged up his ankle in-game. Still, his season-long statistics were impressive during the fantasy football season despite playing with 4 different QBs. 10th in yards (1,250) and tied for second behind only Tyreek Hill in 20 yards gains (42). 10th-highest air yards share at 41%.
17th in points per game (12.7) as the WR18 overall through 17 games.
But projecting Cooper ahead, we can look at his 5-game splits with Watson as his QB. Still, excellent numbers. 23% target share, 42% air yards share were in line with his full season-long usage numbers. Averaged just under 100 receiving yards per game. 14.8 fantasy points per game (6th) and 15.7 expected fantasy points per game (15th).
Elijah Moore was an afterthought with only 2 catches, while No. 3 WR David Bell stepped up with Cedric Tillman out of the lineup. Caught all 8 of his targets (18% target share) for 54 yards. Back-to-back strong games for Bell to close out the season, while filling in for injuries.
Moore was a disappointment for those hoping he could recapture his rookie form in a new city. WR55 overall. Outside the top-65 in points per game.
The Browns will look different on offense in 2024, with key offensive linemen, Chubb and Watson all returning.
I have the most confidence in Njoku retaining a highly involved role with Harrison Bryant hitting free agency. The last two seasons…Njoku is second to only Kelce in red-zone targets.
I’d also expect the team to move on from Hunt – and his ELEVEN TDs – with Chubb returning and younger guys like Ford/Pierre Strong Jr. on the roster.
Hunt and Ford COMBINED for 20 TDs scored for the Browns in 2023.
I’d also presume that the Browns return to a more balanced approach on offense versus the super pass-heavy unit they morphed into with Flacco. -a 12% pass rate over expectation in Watson’s last two starts. 0% PROE in his first 3 starts.
- Weeks 1-12: -6% PROE
- Week 13 onward: +8% PROE
For more on Watson along with other QB rankings…check out my article: Early 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings, Tiers & Notes.
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