Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons’ rushing attack was modest versus the Saints, with Bijan Robinson Jr. leading with 28 yards on 11 carries. The passing game, however, was more successful – at least by the numbers. Desmond Ridder (benched late) threw for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 of 30 attempts, achieving a long pass of 71 yards.
In receiving, Robinson had a standout performance, catching 7 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown (8 targets).
Robinson’s big-play upside and receiving ability have been on full display all season. And we are hoping/praying that a new head coach can further tap into the running back’s explosiveness.
Despite all the ups and downs of Bijan’s usage, the guy still showed an extremely high ceiling.
Outside Week 7 – when he didn’t play due to a migraine – Robinson finished second in route participation (68%, second among all RBs) with a 16% target share (3rd) and 13.8 points per game average (14th). 9th in expected points per game (15.8).
He also ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt as a rusher.
Drake London‘s ability to command targets remains extremely high with another 9-target outing in Week 18. Alas, no efficiency can be found. 4 for 41 yards. 110 air yards. 26% target share.
London’s usage numbers were strong in 2023, commanding a 23% target share and 31% air yards share. Over 1,200 air yards, 69 catches and 905 receiving yards, but with just 2 TDs. The lack of TDs positioned London as the WR39 overall, averaging just 8.7 points per game (WR46).
Like many WRs, London’s ceiling cannot be realized unless the Falcons improve their QB play. Until that happens, he’s a talented real-life WR relegated to fantasy WR3 status. After the game, the team let go of head coach Arthur Smith. This is the best-case scenario for all fantasy pieces on this offense to perform at a higher level in 2024. The Arthur Smith era is no more, so fantasy gamers can breathe a slight sigh of relief.
And maybe that means Kyle Pitts can finally break free in 2024.
The third-year tight end played all 17 games for the Falcons, finishing as the TE14 overall and TE17 in points per game. He scored a career-high 3 receiving TDs matching his total scores from the two previous years combined. It was another year where he posted 1,000-plus air yards to go along with an 18% target share (13th) and 27% air yards share (1st among all tight ends). 10th in route participation and 1st in average depth of target (11.9).
Like London, great usage metrics but to no avail for Pitts. Worst catchable target rate for any tight end last season with at least 50 targets. Woof.
For Pitts to recapture his rookie year stardom – in full-blown Evan Engram fashion – he needs the Falcons offense to get fixed ASAP. Could be beneficial for a new OC to dial down Pitts’ average depth of target so he can get more lay-up receptions.
Raheem Morris is slated to be the new head coach of the Falcons. For those veteran fantasy gamers, Morris was the interim HC in Atlanta after the team fired Dann Quinn back in 2020. He was the HC in Tampa Bay from 2009-2011.
Zac Robinson was brought in for Atlanta for hire as an offensive coordinator. First order of business: Give more red-zone carries to Bijan Robinson (22) than Allgeier (35).
Robinson has spent his coaching career with the Rams since 2019 in various roles on the offensive side of the ball. I’m confident with a background at PFF as well, he can put the Falcons playmakers in a much better position to succeed in 2024. But ultimately, QB has to be fixed as a top priority before we can see this Falcons offense hit full gear.
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