Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks won the game in Week 18, but still missed out on the postseason.
Kenneth Walker led the backfield with 17 carries for 78 yards (49% snap share), while Zach Charbonnet carried the ball 5 times for 32 yards (53% snap share). In the first half, the touches were more split 10 vs. 5. Walker had one target to Charbonnet’s 2.
How this backfield shakes out in 2024 will be intriguing given that Seattle will have a new head coach and offensive coordinator next season.
Walker finished as RB19 and averaged 12.3 points per game (RB20) in 2023. But his production was extremely front-loaded. Weeks 1-7, Walker scored 6 TDs and averaged 15.3 points per game.
Charbonnet was also barely playing during the start of the season. But after Week 8, Charbonnet got more involved in the offense. And that hurt Walker, who averaged just 10.6 points per game over his last 8 games (RB22). They both hovered around a 50% snap share.
Both RBs saw decent red-zone roles during the season, but Charbonnet led the team in red-zone touches after Week 8. He scored one red-zone TD on 22 red-zone carries. Walker scored 7 on 38 red-zone carries.
In the games they both played after Week 8, Charbonnet was also the more involved receiver, dominating the routes run from the Seahawks backfield.
Charbonnet left a lot to be desired in his two spot starts for Walker in Weeks 11-12, but he showed enough in Year 1 to get playing time alongside a healthy Walker. He out-snapped Walker in five of their last 8 games played together.
He’ll remain a high-priority handcuff to target with an obvious three-down skill set behind Walker, who has missed at least two games in his first two years in the NFL.
Walker will remain a fantasy RB2, given his explosive rushing ability as PFF’s 11th-highest graded rusher in 2023. But he is accompanied by committee concerns with Charbonnet a very capable back in his own right.
D.K. Metcalf led the team with 6 targets (23% target share) but had one catch for 10 yards in Week 18.
Metcalf finished 2023 with 66 receptions on 119 targets (23% target share), accumulating 1,114 yards and over 1,500 air yards (40% air yards share, 14th), averaging 16.9 yards per reception as the WR16 overall. 22nd in weighted opportunity. His longest catch of the season was a notable 73-yard play. He demonstrated his big-play capability with 37 receptions of 20+ yards (10th) and finished 20th in points per game (12.0). Metcalf scored 8 touchdowns (5th in red zone targets), underlining his scoring prowess over 16 games with the 5th-most end-zone targets (15). He missed the first game of his NFL career in 2023. He’s an Iron Man and a staple of consistency as a high-end fantasy WR2.
Tyler Lockett caught 2 of his 4 targets for 71 yards and 1 TD. 37% air yards share in Week 18. The veteran wide receiver ended his disappointing season on a high note.
Because the veteran is past his prime and he showed it all year long with his very inconsistent play. 43rd in points per game (9.6) and WR33 overall despite a strong 22% target share and over 1,300 air yards. He failed to crack the top 30 WRs for the first time since 2017. It was also the first time he failed to match or exceed D.K. Metcalf in fantasy points.
Lockett recorded 79 receptions on 122 targets, totaling 894 receiving yards at an average of 11.3 yards per catch. His longest reception was 37 yards. Lockett found the end zone 5 times.
He is also a logical real-life cut candidate with him due nearly $28M against the salary cap in 2024 and 2025. Seattle has an “out” in his contract for 2024. Entering his age-32 season, you don’t need to squint to see the potential fall for Lockett in fantasy football.
But that could easily create more opportunities for another player in Seattle’s offense to break out in 2024.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba tied a bow on his rookie season with 5 targets, catching 3 for 14 yards (19% target share).
In his first season, JSN managed 63 receptions from 93 targets (17.5% target share), totaling 628 yards with an average of 10 yards per reception. His long catch of the season was 35 yards. Smith-Njigba scored 4 touchdowns, indicating his growing role in the Seahawks’ offensive scheme. 59th in points per game (7.0) and WR48 overall.
But it shouldn’t be forgotten that Smith-Njigba suffered a wrist injury that contributed to a slow start. He started to hit his stride more from Week 6 onward where he averaged 8.2 points per game. But still over this span, his route participation (74%, 50th) and high-end target competition made it tough for JSN to produce.
With more opportunities in 2024 at just 22 years old, Smith-Njigba is an easy breakout candidate. He flashed his YAC-ability as a short underneath target, with the 12th-highest YAC/reception (5.9) in 2023.
Seattle’s tight end room between Noah Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson could never be used for fantasy football, because of the team’s willingness to use all three guys at the same time. However, given that Fant and Parkinson are free agents, we could see more concentration around one tight end in 2024.
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