Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
This guide is your key to navigating the endgame of fantasy leagues, offering vital insights for managers and enthusiasts alike, especially those looking to get ahead of the game for 2024 fantasy football drafts.
We will hit on all the usual suspects that make up the weekly forecast articles – air yards, target share, snaps, route participation, red-zone usage, etc. – but this time it will highlight how players/teams did from a season-long perspective (along with overlooked Week 18 contests) as we craft our rankings, takes and strategies for the 2024 fantasy football season. Because YOU can already draft fantasy football best ball teams for the 2024 season. What a world to be part of. Here’s the full 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Below we dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Forecast
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler had just 10 carries for 11 yards, averaging 1.1 yards per carry, with a long run of 6 yards in Week 18. Also had 8 targets, 7 receptions for 38 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per catch, with a long of 9 yards. It was a sour way for Ekeler to end his career in LA. 4th-worst rushing EPA among all ball carriers. RB31 overall averaging fewer than 10 points per game.
The year was a disaster for Ekeler, and I can’t help but think he is on the major downswing of his football career.
He is going to be a free agent after career lows across the board. We saw the cliff hit REAL quick for Dalvin Cook. Ekeler might be next.
Joshua Kelley is also a free agent, making LAC a prime landing spot for a new RB in the draft or free agency. Rookie RB from Michigan Blake Corhum reunites with Jim Harbaugh in LA perhaps? Don’t rule it out.
Meanwhile, Keenan Allen (pre-injury) was a league winner. Third in points per game. WR8 overall. 3rd in target share at 31%. He will be 32 in 2024. In yet, he showed no signs of slowing down with Justin Herbert as his QB.
Allen’s consistency as a route technician and reliable pass-catcher was on full display throughout the season, solidifying his role as a key component of the Los Angeles Chargers’ high-volume passing attack. He racked up 108 receptions on 150 targets, totaling 1,243 receiving yards at 11.5 yards per reception. Allen’s ability to make big plays was evident with 24 receptions of 20+ yards, and he reached the end zone 7 times.
Despite missing some games, he played in 13 throughout the season and provided fantasy owners with a robust average of 17.3 points per game in half-PPR formats.
Until the Chargers add more legitimate receiving threats, why expect anything else from Keenan Allen leading this team in targets. Note that Mike Williams, after tearing his ACL in Week 3, will turn 30 this season. FWIW, Williams was productive before he got hurt. WR15 overall and WR17 in points per game.
But it’s the same story every year with Mike Williams. WR20 in points per game in 2022, but missed four games. At this point, it seems Williams will never fully put together a truly epic WR1 season that he has teased every year since 2018. He’s effective enough when healthy to post massive weeks that we know will not endure the length of the season. And to make matters worse, he is a logical cut salary cap candidate for the Chargers entering his age 30 season in October. Feel old yet?
Other receiving notes from Week 18.
Donald Parham: 6 targets, 5 receptions for 83 yards, averaging 16.6 yards per catch, with a long of 24 yards.
Josh Palmer: 10 targets, 6 receptions for 44 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per catch, with a long of 12 yards and nearly 100 air yards. Unlike Quentin Johnston. Palmer ONLY produced and earned targets with other key Chargers WRs injured. 58% snap share and he still got 10 targets.
During the year, Palmer posted an 18% target share.
Alex Erickson: 5 targets, 2 receptions for 29 yards, averaging 14.5 yards per catch, with a long of 25 yards.
Derius Davis and Quentin Johnston: Davis with 1 reception for 18 yards, Johnston with 2 receptions for 17 yards. He’s a bust. Don’t be swayed. He played all the snaps (87%) and had all the opportunities with Keenan Allen injured the last few weeks to step up. He didn’t.
Johnston finished 61st among 63 qualifying WRs in yards per route run (0.88) as a rookie. Josh Palmer caught as many passes (38) as Johnston in 7 fewer games.
Is it too soon to label Quentin Johnston a bust after his rookie season? Nope. Last we saw of QJ, he had 2 receptions for 17 yards in Week 18. He’s a bust. Don’t be swayed. He played all the snaps (87%) and had all the opportunities with Keenan Allen injured the last few weeks of the season to step up. He didn’t. Johnston finished 61st among 63 qualifying WRs in yards per route run (0.88) as a rookie. My long-lost brother Alex Erickson was out-targeting Johnston the last 2 weeks of the season. Palmer is the Chargers WR to draft not named Keenan Allen
Gerald Everett and Nick Vannett: Each with 1 reception, Everett for 4 yards (left the game with an injury) and Vannett for 3 yards. Everett will be a free agent. Usage never got to a point in LA, where Everett could fully be unleashed aside from occasional spiked weeks of production when other guys missed time. He was by far Easton Stick‘s No. 1 target after Herbert went down with injury. But he never had one game with 50 or more receiving yards. Logged a 55% snap rate on the year (33rd).
The Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh as their next head coach. Don’t believe for a second he will “gift” anybody a starting job as he looks to rebuild the culture in Los Angeles.
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