Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
This guide is your key to navigating the endgame of fantasy leagues, offering vital insights for managers and enthusiasts alike, especially those looking to get ahead of the game for 2024 fantasy football drafts.
We will hit on all the usual suspects that make up the weekly forecast articles – air yards, target share, snaps, route participation, red-zone usage, etc. – but this time it will highlight how players/teams did from a season-long perspective (along with overlooked Week 18 contests) as we craft our rankings, takes and strategies for the 2024 fantasy football season. Because YOU can already draft fantasy football best ball teams for the 2024 season. What a world to be part of. Here’s the full 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Below we dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Forecast
Chicago Bears
I can’t help but think the Bears move on from Justin Fields after he failed to get the win against the Packers in Week 18. Fields completed 11 of 16 attempts for 148 yards, with a long pass of 33 yards, and a quarterback rating of 97.9.
The team fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, along with other key offensive coaches. Again, if Fields was the answer, I am not sure that giving him another new offensive coordinator (third in the last four seasons) is the best approach. The team brought in Shane Waldron as the new OC.
With Fields traded, this will put a rookie QB under center for the Bears in 2024. Not ideal for the pass-catchers, historically speaking.
As for the Bears RBs…
Khalil Herbert spearheaded the backfield in Week 18. Snaps were essentially 50/50 between Herbert and Roschon Johnson. D’Onta Foreman was a healthy scratch (again) and will likely be on a team new in 2024 as an impending free agent.
- Herbert: 12 carries for 28 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 9 yards. 48% snap share.
- Herbert: 2 targets, 2 receptions for 13 yards, averaging 6.5 yards per catch, with a long of 16 yards.
- Johnson: 5 carries for 20 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry, with a long run of 8 yards. 50% snap share.
The debate between Herbert and Johnson as the Bears’ RB to own in fantasy will be something I am not looking forward to in the slightest this summer. RJ seems like he’s the most likely to just be handed the starting job after the current regime drafted him last season. Herbert is a carry over from the previous regime and didn’t do enough to separate himself as the trusted back in 2024. He will be a free agent in 2025, so it’s possible he could get traded in his final season under contract.
The most likely outcome is we get a two-way committee with Herbert operating as the primary rusher with Johnson being the main 3rd-down back. The rookie caught 34 of 40 targets (24% target rate per route run) in his first year. Can’t also forget that Johnson dealt with a concussion that hindered his growth in Year 1.
D.J. Moore in Week 18: 6 targets, 4 receptions for 64 yards, averaging 16.0 yards per catch, with a long of 33 yards.
Moore tied a bow on his first year with the Bears with career-highs across the board.
His final season statistics were robust: Moore finished with 96 receptions on 136 targets, accumulating 1,364 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. These impressive numbers placed him as the 6th overall wide receiver in total fantasy points and 10th in fantasy points per game with an average of 14.0.
Moore’s usage in the Bears’ offense was substantial. He ranked 14th in air yards, indicative of his role in downfield passing attacks. More impressively, he captured a 43% air yards share within his team, the 4th highest in the league, and garnered a top-10 target share at 29%. His 6th place in weighted opportunity highlights his importance in the offensive scheme, combining targets and air yards to showcase his integral role in the Bears’ passing game.
A notable aspect of Moore’s season was his performance with quarterback Justin Fields over 12 games. During this stretch, Moore averaged 16.8 points per game, demonstrating high-end WR1 production. He amassed over 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns, with an impressive 91 receiving yards per game.
Therefore, fantasy managers need to adjust expectations if Fields gets replaced by a rookie QB, which will likely hinder Moore’s fantasy upside in 2024. Only the 49ers duo of WRs between Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk score more fantasy points over expectation than Moore in 2023.
Cole Kmet: 4 targets, 3 receptions for 41 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per catch, with a long of 27 yards.
Didn’t log full snaps in Weeks 16-17. From Weeks 1-15, Kmet ranked 6th in snap rate (85%), 16th in route participation, 12th in routes, 11th in target share (18%), 8th in fantasy points per game and ninth in expected fantasy points per game. The classic definition of a low-end fantasy TE1.
Tyler Scott: 2 targets, 1 reception for 12 yards, averaging 12.0 yards per catch, with a long of 12 yards.
Darnell Mooney is coming off a horrible and injury-plagued season, but I can’t help but think he is going to be a STEAL in a very bad WR free agent class on a new team. The team drafted Scott in the 2023 draft to be Mooney’s replacement in 2024. Mooney finished the season 10th in yards after the catch per reception (6.0).
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