Fantasy Football Draft Outlook: Jayden Reed, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen, Michael Wilson (2024)

While the 2024 fantasy football redraft season is still months away, FantasyPros already has rankings up. One of FantasyPros’ awesome features is the standard deviation tool that gives fantasy players an idea of how much of a consensus there is among the experts regarding a certain player.

Today, I look at wide receivers with a higher standard deviation, examine the argument or reasoning behind the disagreement among the experts, and give my opinion on whether the player is ranked too high or too low in the rankings.

Most Polarizing Wide Receivers

Jayden Reed (WR – GB)

WR32 | 5.3 STD. DEV

Last year, Reed was the best Packers wide receiver. He ended the season as the WR23, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the rookie averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, 1.77 yards per route run, 21% target per route run rate, and a 16.6% first-read target share with Christian Watson playing (per Fantasy Points Date). By comparison, Reed posted 14.1/2.85/33%/24.6% in those metrics, with Watson sidelined. It will be interesting to see how this wide receiver unit shakes out during training camp.

Mike Williams (WR – LAC)

WR47 | 5.4 STD. DEV

Williams is expected to be a salary cap casualty this offseason. The former Clemson star was the WR12 in 2023 on a point-per-game basis, averaging 13.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. Unfortunately, a torn ACL ended his season after three games. Yet, Williams was the WR30 in 2022 and the WR10 in 2021, averaging at least 11.2 fantasy points per game in both years. Unless he has to catch passes from Mac Jones, Williams has too much history and upside to get drafted as a low-end WR4.

Adam Thielen (WR – CAR)

WR53 | 6.2 STD. DEV

The veteran was disregarded heading into the 2023 season. Yet, Thielen was the only fantasy-relevant wide receiver in Carolina last year. He was the WR25, averaging 10.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran was the WR8, averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game over the first seven contests, scoring 11.2 or more in 85.7% of matchups before ending the season on a cold streak. Hopefully, the Panthers improve their receiving corps in the offseason. However, Thielen could be a steal again in 2024 if that doesn’t happen.

Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)

WR72 | 8.7 STD. DEV

Much has changed for Wilson over the past few months. The Arizona Cardinals will likely draft a wide receiver with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Furthermore, the team could re-sign Marquise Brown, as he and Kyler Murray were college teammates. Wilson has potential, averaging 12.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 1.94 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data) in the five contests with six or more targets. Yet, his value for next year will come down to what the team does this offseason.

Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep