Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
This guide is your key to navigating the endgame of fantasy leagues, offering vital insights for managers and enthusiasts alike, especially those looking to get ahead of the game for 2024 fantasy football drafts.
We will hit on all the usual suspects that make up the weekly forecast articles – air yards, target share, snaps, route participation, red-zone usage, etc. – but this time it will highlight how players/teams did from a season-long perspective (along with overlooked Week 18 contests) as we craft our rankings, takes and strategies for the 2024 fantasy football season. Because YOU can already draft fantasy football best ball teams for the 2024 season. What a world to be part of. Here’s the full 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Below we dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Forecast
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots struggled in their passing game against the Jets in Week 18, with quarterback Bailey Zappe completing only 12 of 30 attempts for 88 yards, and he was sacked 7 times for a loss of 57 yards. Zappe also threw 2 interceptions. The rushing attack was slightly more effective, with Ezekiel Elliott leading with 54 yards on 13 carries. Jalen Reagor made a significant 17-yard run. In terms of receiving, Jalen Reagor made the longest reception of 33 yards, but overall, the team’s receiving efforts were limited.
This team needs to get BLOWN UP on the offensive side of the ball. Other than Demario Douglas (4th in YAC/reception in 2023) none of these guys who played should be back in 2024. Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are both free agents.
With Bill Belichick also gone, there’s major question marks about this team’s 2024 outlook. Given all the moving pieces, there’s not too much we can garner from just looking back at last season.
Douglas was essentially 2023’s version of Jakobi Meyers – a completely afterthought of rookie WR who made an impact but could not score a TD to save his life. Case in point, his team-leading 561 receiving yards were the most among all players to score zero TDs in 2023.
Therefore, his final WR68 standing does a poor job of projecting him going forward. He was the best playmaker on the Patriots all season. 18% target share. Earned 7 targets in his first NFL game. 5-plus targets in his 9 games played, seeing 7-plus in over half of those contests. From Week 7 onward, Douglas produced a 21% target share (27th), 25% air yards share, 11 missed tackles and 12.6 expected fantasy points per game (31st). Slightly behind Rashee Rice.
Kendrick Bourne will also be a free agent after tearing his ACL.
As for Rhamondre Stevenson, he had essentially the worst run out you could ask for. Struggled immensely out of the gates with poor inefficiency marks as a rusher. He wasn’t breaking enough tackles and the offensive line was horrible.
In weeks 1-12 before he was placed on IR with an ankle injury, Mondre was the RB23 overall averaging 11.3 points per game. But after Week 6, the efficiency numbers as rushers boosted substantially. Averaged 5 yards per carry and 14.1 points per game (10th among scoring RBs).
With a dynamite role intact as a receiver, Stevenson will be a discount in 2024 drafts with the volume on his side in a “bad” offensive environment heralded by a potential rookie QB. Buy the dip. He played 66% of the snaps in Weeks 1-12 (11th), running a route at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL (53%). Fifth in total targets among RBs. Also, can’t forget that Elliott is a free agent.
And with defensive-minded head coach, Jared Mayo, being elevated to head coach, this team screams “play defense and run the football” at the forefront of the offensive approach. Not to mention, Stevenson is entering a contract year. Feed him till he throws up.
New York Jets
Don’t let anyone forget that Breece Hall totaled 39 touches for 190 yards and 1 TD in Week 18 to snap the Jets’ losing streak to the Patriots.
Breece Hall had 39 touches versus the Patriots.
Tied for the most by an NFL player in a single game this season
Wow.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) January 7, 2024
Hall rushed for 178 rushing yards against the No. 1 run defense in the NFL. He’s just that good. And he’s no doubt lock for me as a top-2 RB in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Through 18 weeks of NFL action, Hall finished SECOND among all RBs in yards from scrimmage. 1st in receptions (76). And he did all of this production despite ranking second-to-last in rushing success rate (39.5%) on fewer than 300 touches (299, 7th). A reminder that he will turn 23 years old in May. 7th in points per game (14.9)
Buy. Buy. Buy. Buy.
Israel Abanikanda will be his handcuff in 2024. The team cut Michael Carter and Dalvin Cook, so I’d presume they feel comfortable with him as the RB2 entering his second season. Super young as well at age at 21 years old.
Garrett Wilson only had 5 targets in Week 18 but still commanded a 28% target share. Had a drop and also left the game after suffering a head injury.
Wilson’s 2023 peripheral metrics are tantalizing, with his actual production lackluster based on the horrible QB play in New York this past season. He finished with 95 receptions from a whopping 168 targets, amassing 1,042 receiving yards and averaging 11 yards per reception. Wilson only found the end zone three times. He wrapped up the year with 165.7 fantasy points in half-PPR formats, which placed him 31st overall among wide receivers, averaging 9.7 points per game (39th).
Wilson’s target and air yards metrics were particularly notable. His 95 catches ranked 13th in the NFL, and his 168 targets were the 4th highest, underscoring his status as the No. 1 option for ALL Jets quarterbacks. He also ranked 10th in air yards with 1,707, a testament to his role as a downfield threat. Wilson was targeted on 30% of the Jets’ passing plays, the 5th highest share in the league, and he led the NFL with a 46% air yards share. This dominance in air yards share demonstrates his significant involvement in the offensive game plan, especially on plays designed for large gains. Additionally, his 3rd place ranking in weighted opportunity highlights his consistent chances for high-value plays.
Looking ahead to 2024, Wilson is poised to build on his sophomore season. With the Jets likely to continue integrating him as a central component of their passing attack, his combination of a high target share and air yards share should keep him as a prominent fantasy receiver. Assuming the Jets’ quarterback play stabilizes and improves, Wilson’s ceiling could rise even further. His ability to generate big plays and his heavy involvement in the offense position him as a potential WR2 with a high upside, especially if his touchdown numbers increase with his projected growth and the team’s offensive evolution. Only Pittman had more red-zone targets (20) with fewer red-zone TDs (2) than Wilson in 2023.
The market will be sour on him based on last year’s lofty expectations. But with even a 75%-level Aaron Rodgers presumably under center for Gang Green next season, you want to buy these Jets’ uber-talented pieces.
As for anybody else on this roster, not much to report. Tyler Conklin is still TE1 but didn’t post any worthwhile usage metrics – outside top-15 in routes/snaps – this year that suggest he can be a fantasy TE1. He also scored zero TDs despite seeing 87 targets for the third straight year in a row. The guy has been a lock for 60 catches and 600 yards – give or take – in the last 3 seasons.
The team has potential out in his contract this offseason. Could make sense for them to move on with him being a FA in 2025. And perhaps they want to see more of third-year tight end, Jeremy Ruckert.
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