Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
New Orleans Saints
Kendre Miller finally played a larger role in the offense in Week 18, with Alvin Kamara inactive and the rookie FINALLY healthy. The first-year RB has been plagued by injuries all season, but finally flashed with 13 carries for 73 yards and 1 TD, with 3 red zone carries to boot.
He played 36% of the snaps, and could take on a larger role in 2024 should the team move on from Kamara – who is due nearly $19M against the cap next season. They have an out in his contract.
Jamaal Williams also scored for the first time all season with 14 carries for 26 yards. He also saw three targets while playing 49% of the snaps. He is under contract until the 2025 season but was extremely disappointing in 2023. He was useless the first two weeks of the season with Kamara suspended before he got hurt. Williams wasn’t used until Kamara got hurt toward the end of the year.
Kamara finished the season as the RB14 overall despite 3 missed games. 5th in points per game (15) with his usage as a receiver and inside the red zone unmatched by the majority of RBs. He was targeted on 34% of his routes – No. 2 in the NFL among RBs. He also played 63% of the offensive snaps from Week 4 onward and averaged just south of 20 touches per game. Led all RBs in catches per game (5.8). Kamara will be 29 next season.
Derek Carr spread the wealth as his late success continued into Week 18. Carr was particularly effective in the passing game, throwing for 264 yards and 4 touchdowns on 22 completions out of 28 attempts. His strong finish (and contract) likely have secured his status as the team’s starter in 2024.
Season-long stats from Shaheed and Olave as we look ahead to 2024…
Receiving yards per game…Over the last 19 games played together
- Chris Olave – 66. 3
- Rashid Shaheed – 53.5
Rashid Shaheed (4 targets and 65 yards) and Chris Olave (3 targets and 56 yards) were key targets in the receiving game, each scoring a touchdown.
Shaheed’s status as an undrafted free agent means he is an exclusive rights free agent this offseason. That means he will likely be back in New Orleans barring anything crazy. He enjoyed a solid sophomore season, as a boom-or-bust option. He totaled over 1,000 air yards on just 75 targets (14% target share). Shaheed excelled in making big plays, as seen in his 31 catches of over 20 yards (14th). He scored 132.6 fantasy points, averaging 8.3 points per game. Shaheed was ranked 49th among wide receivers in points per game.
Olave left some to be desired after being pumped up all draft season as the next major WR breakout. Derek Carr people…The usage metrics were ALL there for Olave, who commanded a 25% target share and 40% air yards share (over 1,800 air yards, 8th).
Olave made a significant impact with 87 receptions from 138 targets (12th), and he amassed 1,123 receiving yards (17th), averaging 12.9 yards per reception. He was one of just two WRs with fewer than 100 catches and 135-plus targets. Wonder why….He found the end zone 5 times throughout the season and earned a total of 187.8 fantasy points, averaging 11.7 points per game. That ranked 21st among wide receivers in points per game.
Nothing about Olave’s talent suggests he should be a fantasy WR2, but that’s likely going to be the case in 2024 with Carr back at QB. However, the duo showed glimpses of improvement in the second half of the season after the bye week.
From Weeks 12-18, Olave ranked second in catchable target rate (89%) with a 12.0 Adot averaging 12.7 points per game(WR16). His ADOT was 14.0 before the bye week, to go along with a 76% catchable target rate (64th). WR20 in points per game.
Olave’s talent alone will make him a fantasy WR2. But if the chemistry with Carr can carry over into the start of next season, we can see Olave make the jump to fantasy WR1 status. His WR12 expected points per game solidify the projection.
A.T. Perry had 3 targets (2 in the red zone) as did Juwan Johnson. Taysom Hill earned 4 targets, catching all 4 for 28 yards.
Perry scored twice in his final game as a rookie and looks to be in the driver’s seat to be the starting No. 3 WR for the Saints in 2024. But as a sixth-round pick, he is facing an uphill battle especially with a new offensive coaching staff coming in. Pete Carmichael’s dismissal almost certainly spells the end of the Hill experience in New Orleans as well. A 15 million dollar cap hit ain’t going to fly against next year’s salary cap.
Too bad for the QB/TE hybrid. Don’t be shocked to see him reunite with Sean Payton in Denver. Those Greg Dulcich dynasty shares…
With Jimmy Graham gone we as well (hopefully) should see a more concentrated target share around Johnson as the TE1 in this offense. He finished 23rd in route participation and 24th in snap share which made him tough to trust. He was TE19 in points per game (6.1), with him buoyed by a strong backend finish as TE7 post-bye week (8.1 points per game).
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