Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon was the standout performer in Week 18, rushing for 111 yards and a touchdown, including a long run of 44 yards.
Mixon has an “out” in his contract and looks primed to be released as a salary-cut candidate. Dead cap hit is $2.75 million compared to his salary cap hit at nearly $9M. Mixon was RB12 in points per game and RB5 overall through 18 weeks. He played all 17 games and finished 8th in RB snap rate (69%). Also ended the year fourth in red zone carries.
He was essentially a three-down bellcow from Weeks 1-12 until the Bengals started to feature Chase Brown more in the backfield. Mixon’s target share (11%) stayed the same, but his route participation (42% vs 48%) dipped with Brown in the lineup.
Brown could be pegged as the team’s starter heading into 2024 depending on how the backfield shakes out. At worst, he likely proved he can carve out a small role alongside Mixon (should he return to Cincy), especially as a receiver.
In the passing department, Jake Browning completed 18 of 24 attempts for 156 yards and 3 touchdowns, though he did throw an interception.
Rookie Charlie Jones was the leading receiver with 49 yards on 3 catches. Fellow Rookie Andrei Iosivas led with a 25% target share and 40% air yards share. 7 targets, 5 catches and 2 TD scores.
Ja’Marr Chase had a 21% target share. Tyler Boyd was buried in playing time in what might be his last game with the Bengals. Iosivas looks like he has shown enough to be a cheap starter in 2024.
Both Boyd and Tee Higgins will hit free agency in 2024. That along with the majority of the tight end room. Keep tabs on Tanner Hudson, who the team leaned on more down the stretch. From Week 9 onward, Hudson posted an elite 26% target rate per route run.
This Bengals offense could look very different in 2024, but one thing remains certain.
Chase is going to be the focal point. He finished with an impressive stat line: 100 receptions (career-high) on 145 targets (26% target share), amassing 1,216 yards at an average of 12.2 yards per catch. He had a long catch of 76 yards and was a deep threat with 28 receptions of 20+ yards. Chase scored 7 touchdowns while ranking top-10 in red zone targets. Over 16 games, he totaled 212.7 fantasy points, averaging a strong 13.3 points per game (WR13).
But we all know Chase left production on the table without his healthy star QB. Weeks 1-10 with Joe Burrow, Chase averaged 16.2 points per game (6th) and 19.6 expected points per game (fifth). He led the NFL in red-zone targets per game. Red-zone targets are the path of least to resistance to elite fantasy WR seasons.
The Bengals will turn to former Bengals QB coach Dan Pitcher as their new OC after Brian Callahan was hired by the Titans as their head coach.
Higgins recorded 42 receptions from 76 targets, covering 656 yards with a notable average of 15.6 yards per reception. He made a significant impact with a long reception of 80 yards. Demonstrating his big-play ability, Higgins had 14 receptions of 20+ yards to go along with a team-high 37% air yards share (17th) on just an 18% target share. He scored 5 touchdowns. Playing in 12 games, Higgins accumulated 116.6 fantasy points, averaging 9.7 points per game (WR40).
He dealt with injuries throughout the season and failed to finish as a fantasy WR2 for the first time in the last three seasons. Ergo, 2023 stands out as a complete outlier for the 25-year-old WR, who will likely sign with a new team this offseason as their new No. 1 WR. The command of air yards shows that Higgins is still a dominant downfield receiver, as are the 4 games where he scored 20-plus fantasy points.
Higgins also flashed efficient yards after the catch ability, finishing with his best YAC/reception mark (5.6) to date, despite a career-high aDOT.
Boyd had 67 receptions on 98 targets, totaling 667 receiving yards at an average of 10 yards per catch, with a long catch of 64 yards. Boyd found the end zone twice. Over 17 games, Boyd earned 112.3 fantasy points, averaging 6.6 points per game as the WR64 in points per game.
He will likely be a nice depth piece for a new team in 2024, and possibly provide some early in-season production as he turns 30 years old. Wouldn’t be awful to see him land in Tennesse as a solid check-down option for Will Levis.
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