Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Dallas Cowboys
The Packers annihilated the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs, even though Dallas scored a few TDs in the fourth quarter to make the loss appear less bad.
Impending free agent Tony Pollard – 71% snap share – rushed 15 times for 56 yards and 1 TD, while Rico Dowdle had just 2 carries and 2 receptions. Pollard was also targeted a whopping 9 times (16%), with Dak Prescott attempting 60 passes, completing 41 for 403 passing yards.
Nobody can be sure whether Dallas will bring back Pollard as RB1 in 2024 after they franchised him this past season. The decrease in rushing efficiency and lack of TDs made Pollard an overall disappointment in fantasy football, but there’s reason to believe he can bounce back should he return to Dallas.
He is vastly overdue for positive TD regression after finishing second in the NFL in red-zone touches (71). He scored 5 red-zone TDs. Woof.
Jake Ferguson scored 3 TDs on 10 catches for 93 yards (12 targets, 21% target share). He led the NFL in red-zone targets.
CeeDee Lamb was targeted 17 times, catching 9 balls for 110 yards. Over 200 air yards and 29% target share. It was a bizarre game for the fantasy WR1 of the 2023 season, as I seemed like he and his QB were not on the same page. Still, Lamb got the job done in the box score, with a near 30% target share.
Over 18 weeks, Lamb finished as the top WR in half-PPR formats, amassing 335.7 fantasy points (19.7 per game, second-best). He had 135 receptions on 181 targets, totaling 1,749 yards with a long catch of 92 yards. Lamb scored 12 receiving and 2 rushing touchdowns, displaying versatility and consistency throughout the season.
Including the postseason, Lamb posted a 29% target share and flirted with nearly 200 total targets and 2,000 air yards. Ninth in weighted opportunity and 19th in air yards share. 1st in red-zone targets, which tends to be the No. 1 predictor of elite WR1 fantasy seasons.
Michael Gallup had his best game of the season in the last week of the postseason, catching all 6 of his targets for 103 yards. But only a 10% target share. Played a 66% snap share well above his normal rate.
Brandin Cooks commanded 8 targets, catching 6 for 47 yards. 14% target share in Week 19.
Cooks ended the season as the WR45 in points per game (9.1) and WR36 overall. After his sluggish start, Cooks was unlocked from Week 6 onward as we saw the Dallas offense start to click. WR22 overall and WR28 in points per game (11.2). The Cowboys have a potential out his in his contract in 2024 with him hitting free agency in 2025. However, Cooks posted his worst YAC/reception of his career (2.3). Also the worst yards per route run of his career (1.19). Cooks’ lack of efficiency was clouded by his lucrative red-zone role- commanding 15 end-zone targets.
Final note here on the Dallas offense. The receivers like Lamb and Ferguson performing so WELL above expectation were tied to their superior roles in the red zone. Both led their respective positions in red-zone targets. But the fact that Pollard never scored despite so much red-zone usage…led to the receivers getting BOTH boosted in TDs. We will almost surely see regression in both facets from pass-to-rush TD/ratio in Dallas for 2024.
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