Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
This guide is your key to navigating the endgame of fantasy leagues, offering vital insights for managers and enthusiasts alike, especially those looking to get ahead of the game for 2024 fantasy football drafts.
We will hit on all the usual suspects that make up the weekly forecast articles – air yards, target share, snaps, route participation, red-zone usage, etc. – but this time it will highlight how players/teams did from a season-long perspective (along with overlooked Week 18 contests) as we craft our rankings, takes and strategies for the 2024 fantasy football season. Because YOU can already draft fantasy football best ball teams for the 2024 season. What a world to be part of. Here’s the full 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Below we dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Forecast
Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson Jr. totaled 9 carries for 25 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry with a long of 9 yards. 43% snap share in Week 18. Curtis Samuel had 1 carry for 15 yards, with a long of 15 yards.
Antonio Gibson had just 2 carries for 8 yards, averaging 4.0 yards per carry with a long of 6 yards. 51% snap share. He will be a free agent in 2024, and undoubtedly on a new roster. I for one, cannot wait to see what team he lands on after he’s been misused on the Commanders the last two seasons.
That will put Robinson in a position to be the team’s lead back in 2024, but to what extent under a new regime for what his role will be remains unknown. As of this writing, the team has hired former 49ers executive Adam Peters as GM. They are still searching for a new head coach at the time of this writing.
B-Rob missed 2 games with a hamstring injury. Finished RB22 overall. 21st in points per game (12.0). The carbon-copy fantasy RB2 that started hot – RB4 Weeks 1-11 and 11th in points per game (13.5) – just to crawl to the finish line (RB51 from Week 12 onward averaging 7.8 points per game).
In his healthy 14 games played, Robinson played 53% of the snaps. He ran a route on fewer than 31% of the dropbacks but still caught 36 passes on 40 targets. If the team doesn’t replace Gibson, he could see a three-down role in 2024.
Sam Howell completed 19 of 27 attempts for 153 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, with a long pass of 19 yards, and a quarterback rating of 65.8. Here’s the rest of Week 18 ‘s target distribution.
- Terry McLaurin: 8 targets (29% target share), 6 receptions for 56 yards, with a long of 19 yards.
- Antonio Gibson: 4 targets, 3 receptions for 28 yards, with a long of 13 yards.
- Jahan Dotson: 3 targets, 2 receptions for 17 yards, with a long of 11 yards.
- Curtis Samuel: 4 targets, 2 receptions for 15 yards, with a long of 9 yards.
- Brian Robinson: 3 targets, 3 receptions for 10 yards, 1 touchdown, with a long of 11 yards.
- Alex Armah: 1 target, 1 reception for 10 yards, with a long of 10 yards.
- Logan Thomas: 2 targets, 1 reception for 9 yards, with a long of 9 yards.
- Jamison Crowder: 1 target, 1 reception for 8 yards, with a long of 8 yards.
- Sam Howell: 1 target, 1 reception for 4 yards, with a long of 4 yards.
- John Bates: 1 target, no receptions.
Washington holds the No.2 pick overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. They also fired head coach Ron Rivera. Expect massive changes coming for this offense next season. Starting of course at QB. Armed with a high-draft pick, they will likely select a rookie QB. Again, not necessarily great for fantasy weapons.
Potentially another year of mediocrity for McLaurin, despite his immense talent.
With a final tally of 79 receptions on 132 targets, McLaurin accrued 1,002 receiving yards, averaging 12.7 yards per reception. His longest reception was a 48-yard catch, contributing to his total of 23 catches of 20+ yards. He found the end zone 4 times, finishing the season with 163.7 fantasy points in half-PPR scoring, which placed him at 32nd overall among wide receivers and 41st in points per game with 9.6.
McLaurin’s utilization in the offensive scheme was reflected in his air yards metrics – he held the 23rd spot in air yards share with 35%, emphasizing his role as a deep threat in the team’s offense. His total air yards exceeded 1500, ranking him 13th league-wide, a testament to the Commanders’ trust in him to stretch the field. Moreover, he held a substantial target share at 23%, ranking 19th in the league for total targets. These figures underscore his status as a focal point in the Commanders’ air attack.
For the 2024 outlook, McLaurin’s solidified role as a premier receiver suggests he will continue to be a vital part of Washington’s passing game. His proven ability to garner air yards and be targeted consistently gives him a floor that fantasy managers can count on, with the potential for more if the Commanders can increase their offensive efficiency – albeit with a first-year signal caller. While his touchdowns could see an uptick with better quarterback play or offensive scheme changes, his steady reception and yardage totals make him a reliable WR2/3 at worst in 2024.
Curtis Samuel is a free agent and could leave in free agency. This is important because it suggests that we could have a third-year bounce-back for Jahan Dotson in Year 3. Dotson broke out as a rookie but was a TOTAL BUST in 2023. And he ran all the routes you could ask for. Garrett Wilson and teammate Terry McLaurin were the only guys who ran more routes than Dotson did in 2023.
He was brutally inefficient – as was the entire Commanders passing game that was more volume over efficiency – finishing bottom-10 in yards per route run.
But Samuel missed or played very little in 3 games in 2023 – Weeks 8,9, and 11. These were by FAR Dotson’s best games. 15.2 points per game with a TD scored in all 3 contests. Still was narrowly out-targeted by McLaurin as the No. 2 WR. Samuel also led the team in red-zone targets.
McLaurin and Dotson need a C.J. Stroud-esque rookie QB impact for them to take any leap for fantasy football. Or they need an offensive mastermind to help Howell turn all of his passing volume into actual production, should Washington approach this year with a long-term outlook at QB.
Either way, don’t hold your breath.
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