Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Indianapolis Colts
In the Week 18 loss to the Texans, the Indianapolis Colts showcased a strong running game, with Jonathan Taylor leading the charge. Taylor carried the ball 30 times, amassing an impressive 188 yards and scoring a touchdown despite facing an elite Texans run defense. His longest run was for 49 yards on a 77% snap share.
The Colts also utilized Zack Moss, who added 30 yards on 6 carries.
Moss will hit free agency this offseason and will likely garner some interest on the open market after a career year in Indianapolis.
Regardless, JT will be back in the RB1 chair with rookie QB Anthony Richardson, something that fantasy gamers were robbed of in 2023 outside a few snaps in Week 5. Taylor finished the season as the RB8 in points per game (14.7, RB33 overall) after he missed 7 games.
After Taylor was reacclimated to the offense in Week 7, he went on a tear. Third in points per game (16.8).
With A-Rich’s mobility freezing linebackers in 2024, Taylor is going to have the chance to post absurd efficiency rushing numbers in the 2024 season. The “concern” is if Richardson bogarts all the red zone rushing attempts in true Jalen Hurts fashion.
But if the Colts offense hits overall, there will likely be more than enough TDs to go around.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew contributed 9 yards on the ground. Through the air, Minshew completed 13 of 24 passes for 141 yards.
The leading receiver was rookie Josh Downs with 3 receptions for 48 yards despite only running a route on 62% of the dropbacks.
Alec Pierce goose-egged on 4 targets. Pierce has been nothing more than a cardio king for two years in the NFL. He stretches the field and occasionally will convert on a deep throw. 84% route participation ranked 17th in the NFL last season. Perhaps with a better/more capable deep ball thrower in Richardson under center, Pierce can be more than a decoy in Year 3.
But Downs has major intrigue as a Year 2 leap candidate. His routes were limited as a slot WR in the Colts offense, but he flashed a lot of potential in an offense that can take a major leap in 2024.
Downs made a notable impact in his rookie season with 68 receptions from 98 targets (17% target share), totaling 771 yards at an average of 11.3 yards per reception. Note that he was very unlucky when it came to scoring, with just two TDs. Only Drake London had more receiving yards and fewer than 3 TDs than Downs did in 2023.
As a result, over 17 games, he amassed 123.1 fantasy points, averaging 7.2 points per game (WR46).
But it should recognized that Downs’ production fell off after he suffered a knee injury that lingered. Weeks 1-8, Downs led the Colts in yards per route run (2.0), averaging 9.9 points per game with a 19% target share.
Michael Pittman Jr. followed closely with 44 yards on 5 catches on 6 targets in Week 18.
Pittman Jr. proved his alpha status all year long in the Colts offense with 109 receptions (7th) on 156 targets, accumulating 1,152 yards, averaging 10.6 yards per catch. Like Josh Downs, he had an equally bad TD production with only 4 TDs. Even so, in 16 games, racking up 195.7 fantasy points (WR15 overall), which averages out to 12.2 points per game (WR19). Nearly 1300 air yards (33% air yards share), with a 30% target share to boot – 4th-highest among all WRs.
Pittman comes with a super-high floor that could be further unlocked with better TD variance in 2024. No player had more red-zone targets (20) with fewer red-zone TDs (2) than Pittman in 2023.
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