Let’s take a look at a few tight ends to avoid at their average draft position (ADP) in upcoming fantasy football drafts.
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Tight Ends to Avoid
Evan Engram (TE – JAC): 85.1 Underdog Fantasy ADP/TE8
Evan Engram began his career with a bang for the Giants before injuries, head-scratching usage and inefficiency largely plagued his final four seasons in New York. The Jaguars took a flyer on him in free agency before the 2022 season and were rewarded with a career year from the athletically gifted tight end.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, Engram had 4.3 receptions per game, 45.1 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns in 2022. He was the TE6 in total half-PPR points and a still rock-solid TE8 in half-PPR points per game (8.3) in 2022. Then, the speedy tight end kicked up his receptions and receiving yards to 6.7 per game and 56.6 per game, repeating his touchdown output, scoring four in 2023.
Engram’s receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns were encouraging marks at a glance. However, his efficiency cratered. Additionally, Engram’s season was disappointing before Christian Kirk was injured on Jacksonville’s first offensive snap in Week 13. The following table illustrates the stark splits for Engram with and without Kirk. The target share and air yards per game are from our advanced stats section, and routes and yards per route run (Y/RR) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
T.J. Hockenson (TE - MIN): 101.2/TE12
Sadly, T.J. Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve, cutting his 2023 campaign short by a few contests. He had surgery to repair his torn ACL in late January, allowing time for the MCL injury to heal. The Vikings haven't provided a timeline for Hockenson's return, but using Adam Hutchison's average timeline of nine to 10 months following ACL reconstruction before a player returns to play football, Hockenson won't return until late October or November.
Obviously, gamers drafting Hockenson must account for him to miss games. That's one checkmark in the cons column for picking Hockenson as a fringe top-100 pick. Another checkmark in that section is Minnesota's uncertain quarterback situation. Kirk Cousins is a free agent. He could return to the Vikings. Yet, the team could also turn to a less talented bridge quarterback or a rookie in the NFL Draft. A rookie or a non-Cousins veteran would be a downgrade for Hockenson's pass-catching outlook.
Moreover, Hockenson was significantly more productive when Jefferson played under 70% of Minnesota's snaps in Week 6 through Week 14 than in the No. 1 wideout's healthy games.
Hockenson had over 10 half-PPR points in five of eight games from Week 6 through Week 14 and just once in his other seven contests. A healthy Jefferson will lower Hockenson's floor and ceiling, saying nothing of any rust or performance impact he could suffer from returning from reconstructive knee surgery. Finally, second-year wideout Jordan Addison could also carve out a more substantial role after a stellar rookie season. The juice isn't worth the squeeze for Hockenson unless he falls a couple of rounds past his ADP.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson's Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Early Undervalued Players
- Early Overvalued Players: RB
- QB2s w/ Top-5 Upside: Feb
- RB3s With RB1 Potential: Feb
- Players to Avoid: QB
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB | WR
- RB Dead Zone Running Backs: Draft or Fade?
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.