Fantasy Football Draft Busts to Avoid: Evan Engram & T.J. Hockenson (2024)

Let’s take a look at a few tight ends to avoid at their average draft position (ADP) in upcoming fantasy football drafts.

Tight Ends to Avoid

Evan Engram (TE – JAC): 85.1 Underdog Fantasy ADP/TE8

Evan Engram began his career with a bang for the Giants before injuries, head-scratching usage and inefficiency largely plagued his final four seasons in New York. The Jaguars took a flyer on him in free agency before the 2022 season and were rewarded with a career year from the athletically gifted tight end.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, Engram had 4.3 receptions per game, 45.1 receiving yards per game and four receiving touchdowns in 2022. He was the TE6 in total half-PPR points and a still rock-solid TE8 in half-PPR points per game (8.3) in 2022. Then, the speedy tight end kicked up his receptions and receiving yards to 6.7 per game and 56.6 per game, repeating his touchdown output, scoring four in 2023.

Engram’s receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns were encouraging marks at a glance. However, his efficiency cratered. Additionally, Engram’s season was disappointing before Christian Kirk was injured on Jacksonville’s first offensive snap in Week 13. The following table illustrates the stark splits for Engram with and without Kirk. The target share and air yards per game are from our advanced stats section, and routes and yards per route run (Y/RR) are from Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Engram was only the TE14 in half-PPR points per game in the first 12 weeks of the season before exploding down the stretch after Kirk was injured. The return of Kirk in 2024 throws cold water on Engram's outlook, whether or not the Jaguars re-sign Calvin Ridley or add pass-catching weaponry in free agency or the NFL Draft. Engram is merely a fringe starting tight end and shouldn't be selected until after the 100th pick.

T.J. Hockenson (TE - MIN): 101.2/TE12

Sadly, T.J. Hockenson tore his ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve, cutting his 2023 campaign short by a few contests. He had surgery to repair his torn ACL in late January, allowing time for the MCL injury to heal. The Vikings haven't provided a timeline for Hockenson's return, but using Adam Hutchison's average timeline of nine to 10 months following ACL reconstruction before a player returns to play football, Hockenson won't return until late October or November.

Obviously, gamers drafting Hockenson must account for him to miss games. That's one checkmark in the cons column for picking Hockenson as a fringe top-100 pick. Another checkmark in that section is Minnesota's uncertain quarterback situation. Kirk Cousins is a free agent. He could return to the Vikings. Yet, the team could also turn to a less talented bridge quarterback or a rookie in the NFL Draft. A rookie or a non-Cousins veteran would be a downgrade for Hockenson's pass-catching outlook.

Moreover, Hockenson was significantly more productive when Jefferson played under 70% of Minnesota's snaps in Week 6 through Week 14 than in the No. 1 wideout's healthy games.

Hockenson had over 10 half-PPR points in five of eight games from Week 6 through Week 14 and just once in his other seven contests. A healthy Jefferson will lower Hockenson's floor and ceiling, saying nothing of any rust or performance impact he could suffer from returning from reconstructive knee surgery. Finally, second-year wideout Jordan Addison could also carve out a more substantial role after a stellar rookie season. The juice isn't worth the squeeze for Hockenson unless he falls a couple of rounds past his ADP.