While the 2023 NFL season is over, fantasy football is a year-long thing. Therefore, it’s never too early to look ahead to next year. Here’s a look at a few running backs.
Fantasy Football Draft Values
The 2023 running back position was a wild one for fantasy players. Christian McCaffrey was the RB1 in ADP and finished the year as the top-scoring running back in half-point PPR scoring. However, only three other running backs drafted in the top 10 finished the season as an RB1 – Bijan Robinson (RB3 ADP vs. RB9 finish), Derrick Henry (RB7 vs. RB8), and Travis Etienne Jr. (RB9 vs. RB3). The other six top-10 finishers had only one player (Joe Mixon) with a previous RB1 finish.
2023 Top Busts
Austin Ekeler (LAC)
Unfortunately, Ekeler’s production abruptly fell off a cliff in 2023. While the veteran spent most of the year either injured or playing in a poor situation, his efficiency severely declined. His yards per rushing attempt dropped from 4.5 in 2022 to 3.5 last season. Despite his route participation rate remaining nearly identical, Ekeler saw his target per route run rate drop by 8% and his target share decline by 3.6% from 2022 to 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). His days as an elite fantasy running back are over.
Tony Pollard (DAL)
After he finished the 2022 season as an RB1 despite sharing the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott, many had Pollard in their top-five running backs this year. Unfortunately, the former Memphis star was a massive flop despite accounting for 67.9% of the team’s backfield touches. Pollard was the RB22 on a points-per-game basis in half-point PPR scoring but averaged fewer fantasy points per game than Brian Robinson Jr. Maybe he wasn’t healthy coming off a broken leg. Yet, Pollard shouldn’t get drafted as a top-20 running back next year.
2024 Potential Busts
De’Von Achane (MIA)
The former Texas A&M star will be a polarizing pick during draft season. Achane was the RB4 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 16.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. However, he was wildly inconsistent, scoring 21 or more in five games. By comparison, the rookie averaged only six fantasy points per game in the other six contests. He likely won’t have a featured role next season after struggling with injuries in 2023. Therefore, there is no reason for Achane to get drafted as a top-10 running back.
Nick Chubb (CLE)
Unfortunately, Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 2, making it the second significant knee injury in his career. Reportedly, he won’t be ready to start the 2024 season. More importantly, the star running back recently turned 28 years old and likely will struggle to return to his superstar level of play. Yet, Chubb is the RB17 in Underdog Fantasy ADP, getting drafted ahead of Aaron Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, and David Montgomery. The veteran running back is off my draft board for next season, especially at his current price.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.