Each year the viability of running backs within the dead zone becomes a hot topic as people fight fiercely for or against players with an ADP between Rounds 3-6. Historically, this has been the area of the draft where running backs fail to pay off their cost and wide receivers typically outperform the running backs in this section. There are currently 12 different backs being drafted in the dead zone, according to Underdog Fantasy’s Big Board average draft position (ADP).
In 2023, nine of the 14 dead zone running backs finished below their ADP. With six over 15 spots below. And that’s in points per game (PPG) scoring, not total points. In theory, that should be friendlier to those running backs, allowing for them to have missed time, but still scored well. Despite the expectation being that the RB dead zone would fare better with receivers being pushed higher up, it still claimed many victims in 2023. Let’s take a look at the current RB dead zone landscape and decipher who we should target.
2024 RB Dead Zone Candidates
These are the current dead zone backs as we approach free agency and the draft. Much will change between now and the start of the season but it seems fair to expect a bunch of these backs to remain in the dead zone.
| Name | Team | Position | Underdog ADP |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 27.7 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 28.4 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | RB | 32 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 39 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | RB | 46.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 52.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | UFA | RB | 52.6 |
| Derrick Henry | UFA | RB | 60.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | UFA | RB | 61.1 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | 64.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 65.8 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 66.5 |
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
After needing multiple surgeries to repair his torn ACL, MCL and meniscus, Nick Chubb is a potential cap-casualty for the Browns who are currently $19 million over the cap, according to OvertheCap.com. Chubb suffered his gruesome injury in Week 2, which in theory gives him almost a full year to recover, but anyone who’s drafted players coming off multiple knee injuries lately will tell you it can be a slow recovery. From Chubb’s point of view, why rush back to only end up needing a second surgery as JK Dobbins did? Or re-injuring himself even worse.
Verdict: It hurts to say it but fade Chubb.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Of all the running backs in the dead zone, Rhamondre Stevenson’s fall by 32 spots might be the most intriguing, given that Ezekiel Elliott is a free agent once again. Stevenson was slow to get going in 2023, dropping from 61 rushing yards per game in 2022 to 51 in 2023 and seeing his receptions per game drop from 4.1 to 3.1. However, it seemed he was just getting going when he got injured after finishing as the RB2, RB20 and RB7, before missing the rest of the season. With new leadership in charge and Stevenson heading into a contract year, there are worse bets to make, particularly if this offense can be slightly more competent than last year.
Verdict: Target.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
It was a bleak season for Aaron Jones as he dealt with injuries and doled out up-and-down performances through most of the regular season, but from Week 16 onwards, including the Wild Card and Divisional Round playoff games, Jones averaged 18.16 half-PPR points. He rushed for over 105 yards in each of the five games and saw at least 20 rush attempts in each game. The Packers seem to know AJ Dillon isn’t the answer, allowing him to test free agency and likely move on. Aaron Jones is old enough at 29 years old that we should be wary, but as the current last member of the dead zone, his ADP is at least interesting.
Verdict: Mix in at cost and hoover up when he slips past ADP.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Players to Avoid
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB
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