Each year the viability of running backs within the dead zone becomes a hot topic as people fight fiercely for or against players with an ADP between Rounds 3-6. Historically, this has been the area of the draft where running backs fail to pay off their cost and wide receivers typically outperform the running backs in this section. There are currently 12 different backs being drafted in the dead zone, according to Underdog Fantasy’s Big Board average draft position (ADP).
In 2023, nine of the 14 dead zone running backs finished below their ADP. With six over 15 spots below. And that’s in points per game (PPG) scoring, not total points. In theory, that should be friendlier to those running backs, allowing for them to have missed time, but still scored well. Despite the expectation being that the RB dead zone would fare better with receivers being pushed higher up, it still claimed many victims in 2023. Let’s take a look at the current RB dead zone landscape and decipher who we should target.
2024 RB Dead Zone Candidates
These are the current dead zone backs as we approach free agency and the draft. Much will change between now and the start of the season but it seems fair to expect a bunch of these backs to remain in the dead zone.
| Name | Team | Position | Underdog ADP |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 27.7 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 28.4 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | RB | 32 |
| James Cook | BUF | RB | 39 |
| Kenneth Walker III | SEA | RB | 46.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | 52.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | UFA | RB | 52.6 |
| Derrick Henry | UFA | RB | 60.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | UFA | RB | 61.1 |
| Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | 64.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | 65.8 |
| Aaron Jones | GB | RB | 66.5 |
Josh Jacobs (RB – UFA)
As a pending free agent unlikely to return to the Raiders, it’s hard to gauge Josh Jacobs’ outlook. He regressed last season after his fantastic 2022 campaign. Jacobs managed 3.5 yards per carry, a career-low and significantly down from 2022’s 4.9, along with seeing his fewest receptions per game since 2020 (2.8). The biggest question here is where can Jacobs land to improve his fantasy outlook above pick 52?
Verdict: Scoop up when falling past ADP but don’t reach.
Derrick Henry (RB – UFA)
Another free agent for the first time in their career is Derrick Henry, who, at age 30, will no doubt have suitors. He likely won’t be dominating touches quite like he used to, though. Henry has rushed for over 4.0 yards per carry in all of his eight seasons in the NFL and finished sixth in PFF’s rushing grade last year, along with being 17th in NFL’s Next Gen Stats’ rush yards over expected per attempt. The cliff-edge may come fast for Henry, but around this ADP, it feels okay to target a player who can break week-winning runs more often than he’s given credit for.
Verdict: Target but not overly aggressively.
Austin Ekeler (RB – UFA)
The third in a trio of veteran running back free agents is Austin Ekeler, who had hopes of cashing in over the last few years but never made it to the open market or received the contract he felt fair from the Chargers. Ekeler’s age caught up with him in 2023, with career lows in yards per carry (3.5), rushing touchdowns (1), catch rate (68.9%) and yards per touch (4.6). Ekeler was the consensus RB2 at draft time but finished as the RB22 in points per game. He now needs to find a team willing to give him a large workload.
Verdict: Fade until his ADP gets past 80.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Players to Avoid
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB
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