Each year the viability of running backs within the dead zone becomes a hot topic as people fight fiercely for or against players with an ADP between Rounds 3-6. Historically, this has been the area of the draft where running backs fail to pay off their cost and wide receivers typically outperform the running backs in this section. There are currently 12 different backs being drafted in the dead zone, according to Underdog Fantasy’s Big Board average draft position (ADP).

• 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2024 NFL Draft Guide

In 2023, nine of the 14 dead zone running backs finished below their ADP. With six over 15 spots below. And that’s in points per game (PPG) scoring, not total points. In theory, that should be friendlier to those running backs, allowing for them to have missed time, but still scored well. Despite the expectation being that the RB dead zone would fare better with receivers being pushed higher up, it still claimed many victims in 2023. Let’s take a look at the current RB dead zone landscape and decipher who we should target.

2024 RB Dead Zone Candidates

These are the current dead zone backs as we approach free agency and the draft. Much will change between now and the start of the season but it seems fair to expect a bunch of these backs to remain in the dead zone.

James Cook (RB – BUF)

It took a while but James Cook finally wrestled away control of the Bills’ backfield this year due to Damien Harris dealing with persistent injuries and Latavius Murray being no spring chicken. Cook finished the fantasy season with eight games of 100+ total yards from scrimmage and finished as the half-PPR RB17 in points per game. Cook is always going to have to worry about Josh Allen vulturing rushing touchdowns but it’s unlikely he will rack up 15 again in 2024, allowing Cook to score a few more.

Verdict: Mix in at cost and hoover up when he slips past ADP.

Kenneth Walker (RB – KC)

The Seahawks brought in Zach Charbonnet with visions of a one-two punch that never really materialized as Kenneth Walker outplayed Charbonnet in his rookie season. A new offense may allow Charbonnet to make a second-year jump, but after consecutive years where Walker averaged over 4.1 yards per carry, it’s fair to say he’s good enough to be an RB1. Walker’s cost is also more palatable in Underdog’s half-PPR format that levels the playing field between those who do and don’t catch passes regularly.

Verdict: Mix in at cost and hoover up when he slips past ADP.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

It says plenty about the running back position and what Alvin Kamara can still do as he was the RB11 (PPG) in only 13 games last season. Kamara should have a smoother offseason this year without the legal trouble that plagued him and resulted in a suspension last year. Even at age 28, he seems to have plenty left in the tank after scoring 14+ points on six occasions. The worry with Kamara would be that Kendre Miller takes a second-year leap and Jamaal Williams stays healthier. Keep in mind Kamara’s contract looks like the most expendable of the trio.

Verdict: Mix in but let’s not get crazy aggressive this year.

I looked into the percentage of fantasy points that the top 50 RBs in 2023 scored from touchdowns.

Here’s what I learned:

– Alvin Kamara and James Cook were the only top 12 RBs to score less than 16% of their points from TDs, despite both scoring 36 total TDs

– Lewis Wood (@DynastyPancake) January 30, 2024

More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep

• Erickson’s Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
• Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
• Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
• Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
• Players to Avoid
• 3 Early Breakout Candidates
• 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
• Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB

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