Fantasy Football Draft Advice: David Montgomery, Joe Mixon, Tyjae Spears (2024)

While the 2024 fantasy football redraft season is still months away, FantasyPros already has rankings up. One of FantasyPros’ awesome features is the standard deviation tool that gives fantasy players an idea of how much of a consensus there is among the experts regarding a certain player.

Today, I look at seven running backs with a higher standard deviation, examine the argument or reasoning behind the disagreement among the experts, and give my opinion on whether the player is ranked too high or too low in the rankings.

Most Polarizing Running Backs

David Montgomery (DET)

RB16 | 3.4 STD. DEV

Many were worried Montgomery would get phased out of the offense last season with Jahmyr Gibbs in town. Instead, the veteran was the RB13, averaging 14.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the rookie had more of a role in the second half this season, Montgomery still scored double-digit fantasy points in 85.7% of the games, including eight of the final nine regular season contests. Gibbs’ role will expand in 2024. Yet, the veteran should still get drafted as a top-15 running back, given Detroit’s run-heavy offense.

Joe Mixon (CIN)

RB19 | 4.3 STD. DEV

The veteran was the RB5 in 2023, averaging 14.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Mixon averaged under 4.2 yards per rushing attempt for the fifth consecutive year. The former Oklahoma star picked up his play in the second half, scoring 11.5 or more fantasy points in nine of the final 11 games. Hopefully, he returns next season as the featured guy. Yet, that is far from guaranteed. Fantasy players should consider Mixon a mid-range RB2 if the Bengals keep him and don’t add any meaningful competition.

Tyjae Spears (TEN)

RB23 | 3.8 STD. DEV

I am surprised that Spears doesn’t have a higher standard deviation. The second-year running back’s ranking will significantly increase or decrease depending on what the Titans do in the offseason. The former Tulane star ranked 10th in yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.92) among running backs with at least 100 rushing attempts as a rookie (per Fantasy Points Data). Hopefully, Tennessee doesn’t re-sign Derrick Henry and improves their offense line in the offseason. That would create the perfect situation for Spears to be a second-year breakout candidate.