Underdog launched their first 2024 best-ball contests before January was even over, and there are already stark differences in opinions on where certain players should be drafted. The Big Board contest provides an opportunity for those confident in their takes to be at an advantage. If you’re unsure, you can use our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to rely on the knowledge of those even sicker than yourself when it comes to early 2024 knowledge.
Below are the biggest differences currently between Big Board ADP and ECR.
Underdog Fantasy Football: 2024 ADP vs ECR
Ahead of the ECR
Trey Benson (Rookie) – ADP 162 vs ECR 304
There is a clear difference in ADP and the rankings of rookies in the ECR, with ADP showing drafters are being more aggressive on the incoming rookie class and with good reason. Year after year we see rookies drafted lowly pre-draft and then jump several rounds higher once their landing spots are confirmed. With an ambiguous running back class, taking shots on any of them to land in a good spot could turn out to be the difference maker.
Jayden Daniels (Rookie) – ADP 137 vs ECR 268
There are few more electric options in the incoming draft than Jayden Daniels who some are calling the most dynamic running quarterback since Lamar Jackson. Daniels is not without some areas of concern, but we saw in 2023 that rookies in the right spot, like Anthony Richardson, can deliver true ceiling outcomes (provided they stay on the field) and if Daniels lands a clear path to a starting job in the draft, expect his ADP to climb even higher and force the ECR to catch up.
Xavier Worthy (Rookie) – ADP 149 vs ECR 262
In a class packed full of talent at the wide receiver position, Xavier Worthy is someone well worth keeping an eye on. The ECR has quite a lot of catching up to do as barring a draft day disaster, it’s unlikely Worthy ends up going much later than here. In 2023 six rookie WRs in a weaker class were being drafted before this spot, including the flawed prospects Marvin Mims and Jonathan Mingo.
Brock Bowers (Rookie) – ADP 90 vs ECR 168
There are many rookies we could talk about here, but we’ll round them off with the next elite tight end prospect to come out of college. It’s going to be impossible to avoid comparisons to Kyle Pitts nuclear-infused ADP rise in his rookie year, but Bowers is a different type of player and his ceiling might be worth chasing. Bowers’s ADP is 25 spots ahead of Dalton Kincaid in 2023 drafts, but his ECR is lower than Kincaid, Sam LaPorta and Luke Musgrave‘s final ADP last year. This one feels like a situation where the ECR has to catch up.
Bryce Young – ADP 197 vs ECR 230
2023 was a miserable year for Young. It’s hard to be too optimistic about a player that had only two top-fifteen finishes all year, but Dave Canales has been installed as head coach. Canales has done wonders with Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith in back to back years. The Panthers seem willing to build around what works for Young and late in the draft we’re sometimes just looking for guaranteed starters, which is likely where Young falls for 2024 at least.
Dalton Kincaid – ADP 74 vs ECR 105
Almost three rounds of ADP separates Kincaid from where the ECR currently has him and this one might be explained as best ball drafters chasing his ceiling outcomes, which is an important part of best ball. The ECR meanwhile likely expects Kincaid to still struggle for consistency with Dawson Knox a virtual lock to make the roster.
Russell Wilson – ADP 203 vs ECR 232
It feels inevitable that the Wilson vs Broncos saga picks up a gear in the coming weeks, with rumors persisting about a trade to Atlanta. The ECR is leaning into the cautious side of things waiting on Wilson’s landing spot, while the ADP is more confident in a player who finished as the QB11 in total points last year.
Aaron Rodgers – ADP 143 vs ECR 170
ADP is almost 30 spots ahead of the ECR on a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a season-ending achilles injury. Meanwhile, the ECR is probably leaning into the fact the Jets still look like a mess and Rodgers has increasingly played slow and conservative in his latter years.
Jake Ferguson – ADP 92 vs ECR 116
This stands out as one of the really interesting spots. On the surface, Ferguson took the Cowboys TE role for himself and historically that’s been a nice place to be in with Dak Prescott at quarterback. However, Ferguson saw the sixth-most red zone receiving targets of any pass-catcher and some regression is likely due there. The ECR might be on the right side of this one.
Austin Ekeler – ADP 61 vs ECR 84
ADP has Ekeler almost inside the top five rounds of drafts right now, which is a massive drop from 2023, but it might not be far enough with Ekeler primed to turn 29 years old before the season starts and currently without a team, coming off his worst season as a professional. The warning signs are clear.
Below the ECR
Ezekiel Elliott – 211 ADP vs ECR 132
The ECR saw Elliott average 16.5 PPR points per game over the last five games of the season and clearly thought respect deserves to be on Elliott’s name, despite the lack of team and the fact he’ll be 29 years old when the season starts. The contrasts with Ekeler are clear, and yet Elliott goes 150 picks later.
Antonio Gibson – 194 ADP vs ECR 133
Gibson is set to be a free agent for the first time in his career and the ECR is significantly higher than ADP, expecting him to flourish when free of Washington’s shackles. Gibson has flashed at times through his career and in a weak rookie running back year, it shouldn’t surprise for him to land somewhere with plenty of opportunities to succeed.
JK Dobbins – 207 ADP vs ECR 149
The oft-injured Dobbins will be a free agent coming off his second season-ending injury of his career and will likely see a mediocre market for his skills, but there are already whispers the Ravens might seek to re-sign Dobbins on a prove-it deal, and if that happens, then he’ll have an opportunity to return value in drafts. Because of the weak running back class it’s a great year to speculate on veteran running backs.
Javonte Williams – 92 ADP vs ECR 69
Best ball drafters are more concerned than the ECR about the emergence of Jaleel McLaughlin and the backward step the Broncos might take as they look to find their next quarterback. Williams scored over 13 PPR points on three occasions last year, and best ball drafters might be right to worry about a lack of ceiling from Williams.
Curtis Samuel – 157 ADP vs ECR 137
Another of Washington’s free agents, Samuel should find a market as a versatile player who will appeal to creative play-callers. Samuel was a last-round pick in 2023, and drafters seem reluctant to push him too far up boards this year, but ECR sees his value 20 picks higher after delivering four games over 18 PPR points in 2023.
Tyler Lockett – 111 ADP vs 93 ECR
The Seahawks can save up to $18m by designating Lockett as a post-June 1st cut, which is suppressing Lockett’s ADP slightly with the uncertain future around him and the rest of the offense in this post-Pete Carrol era. The ECR is slightly more buoyant though, despite Lockett only scoring over 12 points twice in his last seven games. This one feels like the ADP might be closer to the mark.
Travis Etienne – ADP 32 vs ECR 16
There’s no denying that Etienne can be one of the most explosive running backs in the league, but ADP is showing that players are becoming worn down by the sluggish second-halves of seasons that Etienne has gone through in back-to-back years. The Jaguars clearly wanted Tank Bigsby to stake a bigger role and a free-agent addition wouldn’t be surprising.
Dak Prescott – ADP 72 vs ECR 57
The Cowboys unleashed the passing attack after their Week 7 bye and no quarterback scored more points than Prescott for the rest of the year, with Prescott out-scoring the next nearest by 20 points. The ECR feels like the correct read here, particularly if the Cowboys draft one of the many talented wide receivers available in this draft.
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