Seeing the difference in fantasy football Average Draft Position (ADP) between one year and the next is always striking, with players jumping hundreds of spots, along with others falling equally large amounts.
With drafts having newly opened, it’s a little too early to look at how the market is reacting from the initial ADP, but we can look at some of the bigger movers and fallers since 2023 drafts closed in September.
Here are the biggest ADP risers and fallers from last season to this year.
ADP Risers & Fallers (2024 Fantasy Football)
(ADP courtesy of Underdog Fantasy Big Board contests)
Risers
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) | +198 (Current ADP: 11.8)
The breakout running back of 2023, Kyren Williams, has gone from being undrafted more often than not to creeping into the back end of round one in 2024. Only two running backs averaged more than 18 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last year, Christian McCaffrey (22.4) and Williams (19.9). Williams has earned his place in the first round and will likely climb higher if the Rams don’t make a significant addition.
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR) | +187 (Current ADP: 8.6)
We’ll get away from Rams players soon, but it’s hard not to start this list with the oft-undrafted duo of Williams and Puka Nacua, who were league-winners for so many. Nacua was drafted at a slightly higher rate than Williams, with an ADP of 196 in 2023, but now he firmly sits in the first round at 8.6.
If you are looking for this year’s Puka Nacua at the Senior Bowl you might as well pack it up. You could attend the Senior Bowl for the next 20 years and never have another Puka Nacua.
— Jesse Moeller (@JMoeller05) January 30, 2024
Nacua broke the rookie records for both receptions and receiving yards. The BYU product showed the ability to earn targets regardless of whether Cooper Kupp was on the field, seeing seven or more targets in every game during the fantasy season.
Trey McBride (TE – ARI) | +141 (Current ADP: 72.9)
The Cardinals were supposed to be a mess in 2023, but they turned in surprisingly competent performances throughout the season. No player showed more than Trey McBride, who was finally unleashed when Zach Ertz got injured. Once Ertz wasn’t on the field, Mcbride’s target share jumped to 27% for the rest of the season, finishing as a top-12 tight end in seven of the next nine games. He did all that without getting into the end zone very often, managing only three touchdowns all year. Positive touchdown regression could see McBride do even more damage next year.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC) | +130 (Current ADP: 21.6)
Drafters worried Rashee Rice might go the way of Skyy Moore in his rookie season. The worry was misplaced, as Rice was the rookie WR4, putting up the second-most yards and third-most touchdowns among rookies. Rice’s ADP is currently 21.6, which might prove a little steep if the Chiefs make a significant addition in the NFL Draft or free agency.
Jayden Reed (WR – GB) | +104 (Current ADP: 52.3)
The Packers’ wide receiver room is suddenly crowded with better-than-expected options, all of whom could take a further step as they continue to develop. Still, for now, drafters are confident Jayden Reed is the WR1, drafting him at pick 52, 30 spots ahead of Christian Watson and 50 spots ahead of Romeo Doubs. Reed’s 681 yards and 10 touchdowns in his rookie year are definitely worth remembering in 2024 drafts.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU) | +102 (Current ADP: 15.3)
The Nico Collins steam is getting a little hot. pic.twitter.com/CEGkxjNObB
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) February 1, 2024
The Texans’ wide receiver room was widely considered one of the worst in the league entering 2023. Nico Collins was being drafted as the team’s WR1 at 117. Those days are long gone, with Collins now having an ADP of 15.3, a little ahead of Tank Dell, who is going two rounds later. It remains to be seen which of the two players turns into the true WR1 of the Texans. However, with Dell suffering a cracked fibula, managers are siding with the healthy Collins, coming off a WR13 finish in half-point PPR.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) | +100 (Current ADP: 96.1)
Drafters in 2023 were more optimistic about Kyler Murray to start the year. Yet, as the offseason went on and it became clear Murray wouldn’t play till deep in the season, his ADP plummeted down to 196. This year, Murray’s health isn’t a concern, and the only question is if 96 is too low. The Cardinals are well-positioned to take one of the top two WRs in the draft, and with Murray a year further removed from his ACL injury, he feels like a bounceback candidate. The former Heisman Trophy winner finished inside the top-10 QBs in each of his fully-healthy three seasons.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) | +96 (Current ADP: 35.1)
Sam LaPorta caught 86 balls (rookie TE record) for 889 yards and 10 TDs (rookie TE record) during regular season.
Despite what looked like a nasty knee hyperextension in Week 18, LaPorta went 21-176-1 in three playoff games.
Just turned 23 years old.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 29, 2024
Touchdowns are a very un-sticky factor in fantasy football, and it’s possible that Sam LaPorta won’t find his way into the end zone as often as he did in 2023. His nine touchdowns led all tight ends, helping him be the half-PPR TE1. However, LaPorta’s rookie season was a record-breaker, and he deserves some level of faith in him. As the first tight end off the board, he has a lot of expectations on his shoulders.
Zamir White (RB – LVR) | +77 (Current ADP: 130.7)
Zamir White outperformed Josh Jacobs last year in yards per carry, Yards after contact per attempt, missed tackles forced per attempt and in PFF’s rushing grade. Now, with Jacobs a free agent and the Raiders clearly wanting to establish the run as part of their identity, White could be set to be a very valuable fantasy asset. Managers are still slightly skeptical, with White’s ADP at 130.7, but that could look like a bargain in a few months.
Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) | +75 (Current ADP: 79.0)
With Derrick Henry a pending free agent and the Titans having a myriad of problem positions to address, Tyjae Spears looks set to be the bell cow in 2024. The Titans were comfortable using Spears in all facets of the game as a rookie. If the Titans don’t add a significant RB in the draft or free agency, expect Spears’s ADP to rise even higher.
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC) | +60 (Current ADP: 27.7)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a pending free agent, as is the soon-to-be 32-year-old Jerick McKinnon, leaving Isiah Pacheco the potential to be an every-down running back in 2024. Pacheco has excelled in his opportunities, and the starting running back on a Patrick Mahomes-led offense is one worth rostering.
Rachaad White (RB – TB) | +52 (Current ADP: 28.4)
2023’s half-PPR RB5 was as effective through the air as we anticipated, but Rachaad White’s evolution to become even an average running back made him a much better fantasy asset than expected. White averaged 3.9 yards per carry over the last eight games of the year, rushing for 80+ yards in four straight games from Week 12 on, which he’d managed only once before. If White keeps hold of the majority of the work, he’ll be set for success again in 2024.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) | +38 (Current ADP: 6.2)
Breece Hall ranked Top-15 in YPC (4.5) & Top-5 in YAC (2.2) this year…
On a team that started MULTIPLE backup QB’s.
& had PFF’s WORST graded O-Line.
Truly a SPECIAL talent. pic.twitter.com/GCLEqPUCDJ
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) January 24, 2024
Heading into his third year healthy and having shone in spells in 2023, Breece Hall is a lock for the first half of round one. With even a waning Aaron Rodgers and possibly some offensive line upgrades, Hall is set to be a league-winner.
Fallers
Cam Akers (RB – FA) | -154 (Undrafted)
In hindsight, Cam Akers’s ADP of 75 in 2023 was a poor choice, given how little the Rams wanted to use him. However, now coming off his second torn Achilles injury in two years and being an NFL free agent, drafters want no part of Akers in 2024.
Skyy Moore (WR – KC) | -145 (Undrafted)
Any hope of Moore breaking out in 2023 seemed to diminish as Rice impressed at all opportunities, while Moore scored over five-half PPR points on only two occasions all year. With the Chiefs likely seeking upgrades to their WR room, Moore’s future looks bleak. The same can be said for Kadarius Toney, who has dropped 131 spots and failed at nearly every opportunity.
Kenny Pickett (QB – PIT) | -89 (Undrafted)
Okay, I’ll bite: If it happens, a Kenny Pickett + Mason Rudolph QB competition — why is that a good enough QB room, regardless of winner, to win in the playoffs?
— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) January 29, 2024
It seemed inevitable Kenny Pickett would see a boost to his fantasy in 2023 after scoring with an incredibly low 1.7% touchdown rate in 2022. However, all Pickett could muster was a leap to 1.9%. Pickett failed to convince both fans and the Steelers that he’s the answer going forward, and if he starts every game in 2024, it would be considered a shock at this point.
J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL) | -145 (Current ADP: 207.3)
Few players have had as unfortunate run of things as J.K. Dobbins, who has come back from some incredibly brutal injuries but now heads into free agency on the back of 100 rushing attempts since the end of his 2020 rookie season. Dobbins will likely sign somewhere on a one-year prove-it deal, but until we know the landing spot, it’s hard to speculate on whether Dobbins could return value in 2024.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) | -100 (Current ADP: 198.8)
How can they not get him the football? Every. Single. Game. Every. Single. Game. pic.twitter.com/B6I820yDmH
— Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies) January 30, 2024
Another Raven who failed to live up to our hopes was Rashod Bateman, who didn’t score double-digit points in any game this year. The glimmer of hope for Bateman is that he managed to stay healthy all year for the first time in his career. Despite the points not materializing, with Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor free agents, perhaps Bateman turns out to be a value in 2024.
Darren Waller (TE – NYG) | -95 (Current ADP: 147.1)
The Giants will have to decide whether they want to pay Darren Waller $10.5m= million in 2024, with him set to turn 32 years old by the start of the season. Waller didn’t particularly impress in 2023, with only three top-12 finishes. Still, nobody on this Giants offense impressed, and perhaps Waller can bounce back. With an ADP close to 150, it’ll be easier to take on that risk in 2024.
Tank Bigsby (RB – JAX) | -84 (Current ADP: 206.2)
The Jaguars seemed set that someone would spell Travis Etienne in 2023, hoping that his explosivity might be kept fresh all year if a player could take some of the goalline and pass-catching work. Tank Bigsby was given every opportunity to win the role, but he averaged 2.4 yards per carry and ranked 101st in Rushing EPA out of 130 running backs. Etienne might not have enough juice to be a truly elite option, but Bigsby might struggle to have a role in 2024.
Treylon Burks (WR – TEN) | -71 (Current ADP: 169.8)
I’m not sure what the opposite of the movie Draft Day is but I think the Titans trading AJ Brown to draft Treylon Burks is close
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) February 4, 2024
From the moment Treylon Burks was drafted to replace A.J. Brown, it felt like he had an uphill battle to do so. Yet, between the six missed games in each of his first two seasons, along with averaging only 2.9 half-PPR points per game on a 9.6% target share, Burks has done little to live up to the expectations. Maybe Burks returns some value under new leadership, but it’s hard to see this Tennessee offense being particularly potent for fantasy football purposes in 2024.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) | -64 (Current ADP: 153.7)
Perhaps the funniest contract in football continues to provide laughter, with Deshaun Watson set to count for at least $64 million in 2024 unless the Browns want that number to be even higher in 2025. Watson completed 55% of his passes, averaging 185 yards and 1.1 passing touchdowns per game. At pick 153, Watson might be a reasonable value, but we’re also well aware by now that Watson’s floor is pretty miserable.
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