The second half of the NBA season is upon us, and now it’s time to shake things up a bit. With the landscape changing after an active trade season, we will start pushing the limits on how we identify and take advantage of opportunities on the waver wire.

While we will continue to strategically identify players who can take your team to the next level, things at this point in the game may not make sense and, to be quite frank, may get a little weird. Still, we are in this thing together, and it’s my job to be logical, illogical, right and wrong, all to encourage you to make your most noteworthy moves to get you that championship crown.

As always, I would like to thank the readers and members of our FantasyPros community. Your choice to read and engage with this article as a part of your fantasy basketball strategy means a lot. In a world packed with many options to satisfy your fantasy needs, including this article as part of your means to address them is humbling and immensely appreciated. With that said, let’s get down to business.

For those just joining us, welcome! This is your weekly dose of fantasy basketball possibilities as we explore and identify players who can help take your team to the next level in your quest for the championship crown of your league. It’s a long season, so it’s beneficial to maintain an “it’s-a-marathon-not-a-sprint” mindset as you strategize and tailor your weekly or season-long approach to maximize your team’s value and potential.

Each week, we will look at widely available players rostered in fewer than 65% of fantasy leagues on Yahoo!. We will focus on building strategies in eight-category leagues with standard scoring (more details outlined below).

Insights about the highlighted players will concentrate on how they can contribute to the aligned category but also touch on how they can contribute to various other categories.

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Fantasy Basketball Category Analysis & Waiver Wire Pickups

(Statistics and data courtesy of nba.com)

Fantasy Format

Scoring Type:

Head-to-Head (Most Categories)

Player Stat Categories:

• Points Scored (PTS)
• Total Rebounds (REB)
• Assists (AST)
• Steals (ST)
• Block Shots (BLK)
• 3-Point Shots Made (3PTM)
• Field Goal Percentage (FG%)
• Free Throw Percentage (FT%)

Roster Positions:

• Point Guard (PG)
• Shooting Guard (SG)
• Guard (G)
• Small Forward (SF)
• Power Forward (PF)
• Center (C) x 2
• Utility (UTIL) x 2
• Bench (BN) x 2
• Injured List (IL) x 3

About the Upcoming Week Analysis

The analysis evaluates four key areas to determine the players’ and teams’ performance potential against weekly opponents. This analysis considers categories: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, Three-Pointers Made and Field-Goal Percentage.

The analysis assesses the following:

About the Matchup Grades

Grades were developed by comparing players’ stats and team dynamics against opponents’ strengths and weaknesses.

Points

Bennedict Mathurin (SG, SF – IND): 49% Rostered

With the trading of Buddy Hield, Benedict Mathurin is now in a position to potentially benefit substantially from an expanded, elevated and refocused role in the starting rotation. While his plus-minus paled compared to Hield’s, his superior PIE indicates that team dynamics and context could’ve contributed more to Indiana’s limitations than his play.

Indiana has significantly shifted the makeup of their rotation with the additional parting of Bruce Brown, which could force them to get creative in leveraging the talent of both their front and backcourts. The Pacers could have a significant amount of work ahead of them to sustain and grow their production entering the second half of the season. Still, it could be safe to say that Mathurin is positioned to be a big part of helping them during this transition as they prepare for the postseason campaign.

Although his production can be streaky and one-dimensional at times, his 14.1 points per game (103rd in the league) and flashes of offensive brilliance on the floor make it challenging to underestimate his potential impact and fit on your roster.

It is a long season, and with teams embracing a wave of increased confidence in their young players and putting them in roles to have an immediate impact, it won’t be surprising to see the Pacers follow suit. The Pacers are a hotbed of talent right now, with Mathurin igniting the flame. He should undoubtedly be on rosters. It’s not a matter of if; it is a matter of when. The faster you accept the first while diligently trying to figure out the second, the faster you can begin to blaze new possibilities for your squad.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Pacers have one game remaining this week. Indiana, leading the league with an extraordinary scoring average of 123.7 points per game, is poised to exploit the defense of their upcoming opponent, the Raptors. The Pacers’ offensive machine, fueled by a pace of 102.62(second in the league), sets them up for success in exploiting scoring opportunities against a formidable Toronto squad. Their strategic speed of play, especially against the slower-paced Raptors, suggests the Pacers are well-positioned to maintain or even exceed their elite offense.

The Raptors could present a challenge with their defensive track record (19th in OPP PTS) but still fall within a range that the Pacers’ high-powered offense can exploit. Mathurin is critical to the Pacers’ long-term offensive success, whose offensive rating of 114.9 and an average of 14.4 points per game underscore his significance to their offensive strategy. Against the defensive barrage of the Raptors, Mathurin’s efficiency and scoring capability are expected to shine, further bolstering the Pacers’ scoring potential in this matchup.

The upcoming game against the Raptors represents an advantageous scenario for the Pacers to leverage their league-leading scoring ability. With the fast pace of their play and Mathurin’s scoring efficiency poised to exploit the defensive weaknesses of their opponent, Indiana is optimally positioned for offensive success.

On the Radar

Scoot Henderson (PG – POR): 53% Rostered – 12.8 PPG – Ranked: 120th

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk. 16): MIN
• Average OPP PTS (Wk. 16): 107.0
• Average OPP PTS Rank (Wk. 16): First
• Number of Games (Remaining): 1
• Hold Length: Weeks 16 – 17

Rebounds

Josh Hart (SG, SF – NYK): 63% Rostered

There is no reason to think that Josh Hart won’t ball out this next month; this dude can play basketball at a high level. While his career hasn’t provided him with substantial opportunity to be more than an elite support player, Hart will now have his chance to demonstrate his full arsenal of talent for the league to see and experience. There is no question that he is a multi-categorical beast. His 7.2 rebounds per game (42nd in the league) have been a lynchpin of his total value proposition for most of his career. However, he has the ‘receipts’ to show that he is capable of much more than just pounding the glass. 

While his offensive upside has been clouded by minimal usage, his potential as a two-way playmaker is tremendously understated. Though the sample size is relatively small and disjointed, referring to some data sets and linking them to current performance and team context could offer a picture of what we could be in store to experience.

First, his college marks for scoring. Throughout his time at Villanova, he increased his scoring output significantly year after year, averaging 7.8, 10.1, 15.5 and 18.7 points per game from 2013-2017. Second, in his third season with the Pelicans from 2021-2022, in which he played 41 and started in 40.0 games, he averaged 13.4 points per game. The same season, following his trade to the Trail Blazers, he averaged 19.9 points per game in 13.0 games played and started. 

Hart is on a competitive team, the Knicks, who are experiencing some untimely injury issues. This unfortunate circumstance opens the door for him to demonstrate the extent of his versatility.

I know conventional wisdom says, “Well, this is an injury ‘bubble’ that’s bound to bust when the team is healthy,” but I would encourage you not to be too cute in your conclusion. Yes, Hart takes time to ramp up his production. And yes, there is a very good chance that by the time he begins to exhibit this level of upside, his time in this role could be coming to an end. Still, I would rather experience that with him than force him to do it with strangers on another team. A rostership of 63% is a great opportunity to get in, on at least for the next few weeks.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Knicks have one game remaining this week. New York, fourth in the league with an impressive 46.0 rebounds per game, is set to face the Magic, presenting a distinct challenge to their rebounding dominance. This week’s matchup offers a litmus test for the Knicks’ ability to maintain their high rebounding standards, especially considering the defensive capabilities of their opponent. The Magic pose a formidable challenge (fourth in OPP REB) by limiting opponents to just 41.0 rebounds per game. This matchup demands a strategic approach from the Knicks, requiring them to navigate through the Magic’s tight rebounding defense to secure boards.

Key to the Knicks’ rebounding efforts is Josh Hart, whose defensive rating of 110.8 and average of 7.1 rebounds per game underscore his significance in the Knicks’ off-the-glass strategy. Against the backdrop of the Magic’s rebounding defense, Hart’s performance will be pivotal in determining the Knicks’ success on the boards. The Knicks’ slower game pace, 28th in the league, alongside Hart’s rebounding prowess, sets the stage for a tactical battle against the Magic. The Knicks’ matchups this week not only test their ability to outmaneuver their opponent on the boards but also highlight the crucial role of Hart in anchoring their rebounding efforts.

On the Radar

Ausar Thompson (SG, SF, PF – DET): 56% Rostered – 6.6 RPG – Ranked: 55th

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk. 16): PHO
• Average OPP REB (Wk. 16): 40.9
• Average OPP REB Rank (Wk. 16): 3rd
• Number of Games (Remaining): 1
• Hold Length: Weeks 16 – 18

Assists

Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, SG – LAL): 57% Rostered

Whether he had remained with the Raptors or not, Spencer Dinwiddie would be added to this list. You’d be surprised how a new change of scenery can impact a person. While I was a huge fan of Brooklyn’s investment in Dinwiddie during the ushering of the Mikal Bridges era, his fit was pragmatic at best and, indeed, ran its course. The Nets have a fine stable of capable backcourt players and are poised to enter the next stage of their understated rebuild with high hopes that their pool of raw talent can begin to take shape, especially with the addition of Dennis Schroder. 

The sending of Dinwiddie to Toronto and now to the West Coast to join LeBron James and the Lakers could lead to some solid returns. The team’s need for a pure facilitator could do wonders for the Lakers’ and Dinwddie’s values. His 6.0 assists per game (28th in the league) will serve the team well, potentially allowing them the chance to maximize their rotation’s execution and offensive output with a “Power” lineup that consists of Dinwiddie and D’Angelo Russell holding down the backcourt while Austin Reaves, LeBron James and Anthony Davis become one of, if not the best frontcourt trio in the league. 

If this lineup approach became the basis of the team’s strategy, the Lakers could be a big problem in the West. The transition period certainly exists, and while Dinwiddie isn’t new to the game, their fellow Los Angeles counterpart has shown that age is nothing but a number and patience is a virtue worth acquiring.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Lakers have one game remaining this week. Los Angeles enters this week’s matchups with a solid assist average of 28.3 per game (eighth in the league), an indicator of their strong team dynamics and effective ball distribution. Paired with their offensive pace of 101.3 (sixth), the Lakers are poised to exploit the defensive pressure of their upcoming opponent, the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz presents a lenient defensive stance (29th in OPP AST), which sets up an advantageous situation. The Lakers could potentially elevate their assist numbers significantly in this matchup, exploiting the Jazz’s defensive vulnerabilities to full effect.

Dinwiddie, with a respectable offensive rating of 114.9 and an average of 6.0 assists per game, is expected to be instrumental in navigating these defensive challenges. His playmaking ability will be crucial against the Jazz’s lax assist defense, where he can maximize Los Angeles’ offensive potential through strategic ball movement and creating scoring opportunities for his teammates.

Considering the Lakers’ strategic pace and Dinwiddie’s pivotal role, the matchup against the Jazz offers Los Angeles a platform to demonstrate their assist capabilities. Through a blend of high-tempo play and efficient assist distribution, the Lakers aim to potentially boost their assist numbers and reinforce their position as one of the league’s top playmaking teams.

On the Radar

T.J. McConnell: 11% Rostered – 5.5 APG – Ranked: 35th

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk. 16): TOR
• Average OPP AST(Wk. 16): 28.3
• Average OPP AST Rank (Wk. 16): 26th
• Number of Games (Remaining): 1
• Hold Length: Weeks 16 – 18

Steals

Xavier Tillman Sr. (PG, SG – BOS): 8% Rostered

I know he is injured and not likely to play before the All-Star Break, but an 8.0% roster rate is too low for a player as talented as Xavier Tillman Sr., who is heading to an elite team built to support his player profile and contribution. His acquisition is a play for those who have enough utility to punt steals for a while.

At this point in the year, you have to be thinking a little more broadly than week-to-week; for the most part, you are either in coast mode, sustain mode or “I-need-a-prayer” mode, which means taking an unconventional approach to how you view winning and losing. Sacrificing a week or two may have to be considered for an acquisition that could carry you home, and Tillman Sr. fits the bill. He is averaging 1.2 steals (33rd in the league) and 1.0 blocks (39th in the league) per game. He has demonstrated significant promise in tapping into his slumbering elite potential, but it doesn’t come without reasonable risk. 

Tillman Sr. is facing the most dangerous opponent a young star with potential can face, and that’s the Doom Squad led by head coach Injured Frequently, powers and hair-style stolen from Mr. Glass himself. While that can be offputting, many of us have tales of having reaped significant rewards when taking a chance on “our guy,” and now could be a prime example of such a time. The Celtics didn’t give up two second-round picks on a pragmatic potential play for a single-year championship push. Should things work out the way they should, they got themselves a steal and another elite asset to add to a team poised to cash in on their open championship window. 

Acquiring Tillman Sr. is a move that may have fewer risks than one may think, but the potential return could be game-changing; I mean, look at all the production they are still getting from Al Horford while managing him in the right way.

Suppose that doesn’t interest you, and you are looking for a less speculative add, someone who can give you an immediate return this week. In that case, the next player you should target is none other than our boy Alex Caruso, who is averaging 1.4 steals per game (20th in the league). Need more context as to why you should? I’ll feature him in the following category to save time while attempting to illustrate my confidence in his abilities.

On the Radar

Alex Caruso (PG, SG – CHI): 59% Rostered – 1.4 SPG – Ranked: 20th

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk. 16): CLE
• Average OPP STL(Wk. 16): 7.7
• Average OPP STL Rank (Wk. 16): 19th
• Number of Games (Remaining): 1
• Hold Length: Weeks 16 – 18

Blocks

Alex Caruso (PG, SG – CHI): 59% Rostered

Injured, not injured, Caruso has earned his spot on the must-roster radar for the remainder of the season with his solid play. Caruso was a big name in the trade game but ultimately wasn’t moved. While this decision will delay us from experiencing what his ceiling could become when given more of a more forward-facing featured role, it doesn’t negate the silver lining that the Bulls do see and appreciate what he does for the team. The inaction might lead to a potential increase in action on the floor. With the noise now lowered, it could allow the team to focus as they prepare to make a competitive push during the second half of the season.

Caruso is a great glue asset who could easily become one of the most important players you could have during deep-season competition. His utility is off the charts, and while his ceiling is capped, he offers enough competitive production across seemingly every category that should help position you for immediate and long-term success. He may be an elite blocker, 1.2 per game (27th in the league), but the one thing he can’t block is your success.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Bulls have one game remaining this week. Chicago is poised to put their defense and blocking production to the test against a competitive Cavaliers squad. Positioned 14th in the league with an average of 5.3 blocks per game, this matchup will present varying opportunities for the team to exploit the offense. The Cavaliers (16th in OPP BLK) set the stage for the Bulls to match and potentially exceed their average block production.

Central to the Bulls’ defensive efforts is Caruso, whose defensive acumen, evidenced by an average of 1.2 blocks per game and a defensive rating of 108.5, will be crucial in navigating these games. The strategic defensive positioning and timing of Caruso could be the key to leveraging the Bulls’ block production against their opponents’ offensive strategies. This matchup presents a favorable scenario for the Bulls to capitalize on their defensive strengths, potentially enhancing their block counts.

However, the Bulls’ slowest pace in the league at 96.91 could influence the dynamics of this matchup. This slower game tempo, contrasted with the Cavaliers’ quicker pace, might limit the Bulls’ block opportunities in a faster game environment. Despite this, the Bulls’ defensive rating, coupled with the offensive ratings of the Cavaliers, suggests potential for impactful defensive engagements that could result in blocks.

This contest offers the Bulls a chance to assert their presence and possibly increase their block production. By maximizing their defensive strengths and Caruso’s role, the Bulls aim to navigate these matchups successfully, with an eye on elevating their block production and defensive impact.

On the Radar

Nick Richards (C – CHA): 46% Rostered – 1.3 BLK – Ranked: 22nd

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk. 16): ATL
• Average OPP BLK(Wk. 16): 5.5
• Average OPP STL Rank (Wk. 16): 22nd
• Number of Games (Remaining): 1
• Hold Length: Weeks 16 – 18

Three-Pointers Made

Duncan Robinson (SG, SF – MIA): 22% Rostered

This man is an offensive juggernaut, more so from “a license to shoot” perspective. While his production is often painful to track and watch on the game cast, Duncan Robinson can often produce enough across key offensive categories to position your squad for success. He has been out with a concussion for an extensive amount of time, but there shouldn’t be any lasting negative bearing on his production.

Robinson is averaging 13.0 points (118th in the league) and 2.7 three-pointers made per game (30th in the league) and has maintained a ridiculous volume of work even with all of the team’s offensive potential. Again, we want to stop this week-to-week mindset and start thinking about the fantasy basketball postseason. While Robinson’s production may take some time to bolster, he could be worth the investment for your successful final stand.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Heat have two games this week. Given their three-point production, team pace, offensive rating and Robinson’s specific contributions against the defensive profiles of the Bucks and Sixers, the Heat face a nuanced challenge in building on their three-point production in these matchups. The Heat, ranked 17th in three-pointers made with an average of 12.3 per game, encounter opponents with strong defenses against three-point shots: the Bucks and Sixers (ninth and third in OPP 3PM, respectively).

The Heat’s slower pace of play, ranked 28th in the NBA, contrasts with their opponents’ faster paces. It might not inherently disadvantage their three-point shooting but does suggest a strategic game flow where maximizing quality over quantity in three-point attempts becomes crucial. Despite the Heat’s middle-of-the-pack offensive rating of 113.1, they face teams with defensive ratings that might allow for scoring opportunities from beyond the arc, given strategic offensive execution.

Robinson, known for his three-point shooting prowess, with an offensive rating of 112.0 and averaging nearly seven three-point attempts per game, could play a pivotal role in exploiting any defensive lapses by the Bucks and Sixers. However, the effectiveness of his contributions will heavily depend on the Heat’s ability to create open looks for him through ball movement and offensive schemes designed to stretch the opponents’ defenses.

The data suggests a potential for the Heat to maintain or slightly improve their three-point production, particularly if they can leverage their slower pace for more calculated offensive sets that prioritize high-quality three-point attempts. This approach, combined with Robinson’s shooting capabilities and the overall offensive strategy, might offset the defensive strengths of the Bucks and Sixers. However, it does not guarantee a significant advantage. The matchups require a nuanced offensive execution from the Heat, where the integration of pace, offensive efficiency and individual shooting talent like Robinson’s will be critical to their success from beyond the arc.

On the Radar

Alex Caruso (PG, SG – CHI): 59% Rostered – 1.7 3PM – Ranked: 101st

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk. 16): CLE
• Average OPP 3PM (Wk. 16): 12.0
• Average OPP 3PM Rank (Wk. 16): 8th
• Number of Games (Remaining): 1
• Hold Length: Weeks 16 – 18

Field-Goal Percentage

Marvin Bagley III (PF, C – WAS): 41% Rostered

Like Tillman Sr., Marvin Bagley needs to stay healthy. If he can, man, you could have yourself something special on your hands. Recently across sports, we have seen players re-write their history. The likes of Joe Flacco, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith took advantage of their opportunities and showed us that they still have value to contribute and an impact to make. While Marvin Bagley III is still young, his journey back to real and fantasy relevance has been something special to witness, even if for a short time. The timing is right, and the sample size, although less comprehensive than we would like, is valid and more reliable than you might think. 

The Wizards just moved a promising Daniel Gafford to the Mavericks, and while Richaun Holmes offers some staying power, the real value is the draft capital they got in the process. One could argue that this was made possible by the promise Bagley has demonstrated in his short time with the team, indicating that he should find himself in a great position to play up to and past his potential. He can produce in every phase, and while his traditional production on the boards is promising, his potential as an offensive asset pushes him over the edge and into the realm of must-roster, must-start assets. He is tremendously efficient in his shooting, owning a 59.7% field-goal percentage (48th in the league), and should be able to take advantage of a long leash, given the team’s current sandbox-esque state.

Upcoming Week Analysis

The Wizards have one game remaining this week. Standing at a 47.5% shooting efficiency, 15th in the league, they face a dynamic set of defensive challenges from their upcoming matchup with the Pelicans. New Orleans represents a formidable challenge, with their defense limiting opponents to 46.6% shooting (sixth in OPP FG%). This matchup demands a strategic offensive approach from the Wizards, requiring them to navigate through a more robust defensive setup and possibly adjust their game plan to ensure quality shot selection. 

Bagley’s role in this dynamic becomes crucial, given his impressive offensive rating of 110.4 and a field-goal percentage of 57.1%. His ability to maintain high efficiency, especially against the Pelicans’ strong defense, will be pivotal for the Wizards’ efforts to maximize their scoring opportunities. 

Furthermore, the Wizards’ fast-paced play, being the fastest in the NBA, combined with their opponent’s varied pace, adds another layer to the strategic considerations for these matchups. The pace at which the games are played could influence shot opportunities and the game’s overall flow, impacting the Wizards’ ability to execute their offensive scheme effectively.

The Wizards’ ability to adapt their offensive strategies to the defensive profile of their opponent will be instrumental in navigating the week’s contests. Washington is aiming to capitalize on scoring opportunities and maintain or improve their shooting efficiency across varied game environments.

On the Radar

Alex Caruso (PG, SG – CHI): 59% Rostered – 1.4 SPG – Ranked: 20th

• Waiver Priority: Medium-High
• Opponent(s) (Wk. 16): CLE
• Average OPP FG% (Wk. 16): 45.5%
• Average OPP FG% Rank (Wk. 16): 4th
• Number of Games (Remaining): 1
• Hold Length: Weeks 16 – 18

Free-Throw Percentage

Jordan Nwora (SF, PF – TOR): 2% Rostered

This is a play that could provide some interesting dynamics to your team. The Raptors traded away Precious Achiuwa and now Thaddeus Young. While they have been somewhat cryptic in their usage of Jordan Nwora, he has demonstrated some utility in producing across several categories. Depending on how things shake out, he could go from a free-throw line plug-in-play – shooting a healthy 85.7% (T-100 in the league) from the charity stripe – to an understated multi-categorical asset with scoring and rebounding upside.

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