If you are new to the high-stakes world, the drafts can be overwhelming when you first sit down at the table. It is not just the larger amounts of money being played for or the amazing talent drafting against you that can be jarring, but the way rosters are constructed which is different from your average fantasy league.
In my last pieces on high-stakes leagues, we looked at how to approach pitching and hitting. In this article, we will talk about my approach to the first few rounds of a high-stakes draft.
If you are new to the high-stakes world, the drafts can be overwhelming when you first sit down at the table. It is not just the larger amounts of money being played for or the amazing talent drafting against you that can be jarring, but the way rosters are constructed which is different from your average fantasy league.
In my last pieces on high-stakes leagues, we looked at how to approach pitching and hitting. In this article, we will talk about my approach to the first few rounds of a high-stakes draft.
High-Stakes Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Early Rounds
Before we jump into what types of players we should be targeting or avoiding, let’s talk about KDS. First of all, what is KDS? KDS stands for Kentucky Derby Style, and it is how you pick your draft slot. In this format, you rank your preferred draft slot in order. So, in a 15-team league, you might set up your draft preference as 2, 13, 1, 11, 10, 7, 14, 4, 6, 12,3, 5, 15, 8, 9.
I think everyone has a preferred spot in the draft they like, and this format gives you a better chance to land that as opposed to a random draw. There are two ways to look at it. First, where are you most likely to land the player you want most in the first round? If you really want Trea Turner, and his ADP is around 10, you can probably get him at pick 8 or 9, so there is no reason to put picks 1-7 high in your KDS.
For me, this year, I think there is a clear No. 1 player in Ronald Acuna, but then the next six or seven guys are pretty interchangeable, so I would most likely have my KDS be something along the lines of 1, 7, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.
Most likely, I either end up with Acuna or whoever falls to me in the middle of the draft while having an earlier pick than the front of the draft in the second round. This brings me to the other way to look at it. You will get a stud in the first round no matter what, so look for where the big drop-offs are in the second and third rounds.
If you think there are only 20 stud players, then maybe you prefer to set your KDS to target your second-round pick at 20. If you think there is a massive difference between the top 35 players and players 36-45, then maybe you want to make sure you try and get your third-round pick before 36. These are important things to think about with your KDS selection.
Finally, some people really like picking on the turn or hate it. If you don’t feel comfortable with drafting on one end of the other, then prioritize the middle of the draft.
What are you looking for in terms of drafting early? I think it is counterintuitive, but when you are thinking about who to draft, you should look at the end of the draft before the beginning. After you have done your player analysis, you should have a list of players that you feel are undervalued at either specific positions or for certain categories.
For example, let’s say you have a player going late in the draft that you love at second base, then you don’t need to worry as much about targeting a player like Marcus Semien or Ozzie Albies. If you feel there is a lot of cheap speed at the end of the draft, then maybe you focus on power and batting average at the top of the draft. Having an end-game strategy should inform your early draft strategy.
Remember, you need to stay balanced because of the overalls in the majority of these contests. Here are the 80 percentile targets for last season’s main event:
| Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
| 1082 |
305 |
1049 |
187 |
0.2604 |
| K’s |
Wins |
Saves |
ERA |
WHIP |
| 1406 |
91 |
73 |
3.285 |
1.211 |
Balance is important, especially in these early rounds, because it allows you more options to target in later rounds. I like to leave my first five rounds with at least two offensive players who contribute in all five categories: a closer and a starter. Usually, I draft two starters in the first five rounds, but I am open to pushing my second starter down a round or two, especially if I get an ace that I feel really confident in, like a Gerrit Cole.
I think one of the most important things to think about when drafting early is risk tolerance. I think a lot of people think that the best way to win in high-stakes leagues is by shooting for high-risk upside. The opposite is true. Volume is the best way to win in these formats. Guys like Marcus Semien are often pushed down March drafts because they aren’t as sexy, while guys like Royce Lewis rise.
However, the fact Semien is more likely to deliver 650-700 plate appearances means he is a much better bet. You want to take high-risk gambles, but take them later and don’t compound the risk. This means if you take a risky guy, especially early, don’t take a bunch more. Remember, when you add or multiply risk bets, it is much less likely they all hit.
Finally, you should have a plan when you enter your draft. After finding out my draft spot, I make decision trees to mock who should be available within my first five to ten rounds and who I would take. I also make backup plans in case I get sniped. The more prepared you are, the better your draft will go.
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