This past week, Microsoft became the first company to be valued at $3 trillion with the recent surge in value coming from their publicly announced commitment to AI.
No doubt their commitment was centered around fantasy baseball ranking analysis, so I built a plug-in where I had AI retrieve preseason rankings from prior years to see how 2024 is different. Before I do and put myself out of a job, here are some early February rankings takeaways I found interesting:
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Early Consensus Ranking Analysis (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
Positional Scarcity
Top 150 consensus picks broken down by position:
- Catcher – 8
- First Baseman – 20
- Second Baseman – 14
- Third Baseman – 15
- Shortstop – 16
- Outfielders – 34
- Pitchers – 61
- Top 50 consensus picks broken down by position:
- Catcher – 1 (12.5% of top 150 position pool)
- First Baseman – 5 (20% of top 150 position pool)
- Second Baseman – 4 (28.5% of top 150 position pool)
- Third Baseman – 6 (40% of top 150 position pool)
- Shortstop – 8 (50% of top 150 position pool)
- Outfielders – 13 (38% of top 150 position pool)
- Pitchers – 17 (27% of top 150 position pool)
Positional scarcity is incredibly important in fantasy baseball. Locking down high-value players in a shallow position allows you to take chances later in the draft.
Adley Rutschman (C – BAL) is the only catcher in the top 50 worth keeping an eye on as we get closer to the draft season. I expect smart teams to lock him down and for that to be reflected in future ADPs.
On the other hand, fringe top-50 players with one position eligibility in deep position pools (Manny Machado (3B – SD) could drop in rankings as the season gets closer and final tiers start to shake out.
A Rare Consensus No. 1 Pick
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL) will be the first consensus No. 1 overall pick since Mike Trout (OF – LAA) in the mid-2010s.
For the first time in years, if you get the No. 1 pick you can be as excited as Anthony Rendon (3B – LAA) when he gets a day off from playing baseball.
Teammates in the Top 10
The top-10 is filled with players from the same team:
- Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider (SP – ATL)
- Mookie Betts (OF – LAD) and Freddie Freeman (1B – LAD)
- Juan Soto (OF – NYY) and Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
Remaining Top 10 Picks:
- Bobby Witt Jr. (SS – KC)
- Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA)
- Kyle Tucker (OF – HOU)
- Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI)
This got me thinking, where is the next top ranked position player teammate for top 10 projected picks?
- Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson (1B – ATL), No. 15
- Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez (OF/DH – HOU), No. 16
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker (1B – ARI), No. 75
- Kansas City Royals: Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KC): No. 128
- Seattle Mariners: Cal Raleigh (C – SEA), No. 139
Witt Jr. and Rodriguez both going in the top-5 when their next draftest teammate has an ADP over 125? I went back a decade and I did not see this happen once, let alone twice.
Pretty interesting. Not as interesting as Blake Snell (P – FA) having 19% more walks than anyone else in the National League and still winning Cy Young. But interesting and something to track as the season gets closer. I predict either Julio or Witt will be out of the top 3 when I check back in a month.
Speaking of Snell, [non-relevant Blake Snell rant removed at editor discretion] he is a good player and he has good movement on his pitches! My issue is that [Non-relevant Snell rant removed at editor discretion].
Now, the moment you all have been waiting for …
$3 Trillion Worth of AI Analysis:
- Consensus Top Pick: Acuna Jr. Duh.
- Positional Versatility is important. But somehow cannot differentiate players between positions.
- Pitcher Rankings: “Spencer Strider is the only pitcher in the top 10 and a lot is expected from him as a result. Very cool, great job.
- Disparities in Rankings: “Trea Turner‘s rankings range from 9 to 33, signaling a wide range of outcomes.” Solid. Not sure how I can use that though. And also a lot of players have higher discrepancies.
- Free Agents: “Snell and Cody Bellinger (OF,1B – FA) are both free agents and in the top 150. Indicating they will likely be signed and have value.” Right, right.
- Young Talent Rising: “Rising Draft Values of players like Witt Jr. and Julio Rodriguez indicate a strong belief in their skills” Young talented players have skills and potential. Quick, write that down.
That was it. And I asked a few different ways. It’s safe to say Microsoft AI is not in the fantasy baseball analysis game yet, although I do have faith in them.
More preseason ranking analysis coming at the end of February. Maybe AI will make strides in fantasy baseball analysis between now and then.
More Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy
- Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Draft Mistakes to Avoid
- Fantasy Baseball Position Scarcity Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Salary Cap Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Categories League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball OBP League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Value-Based Drafting Primer
- Fantasy Baseball H2H Categories vs. Points Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Roto vs. H2H Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Points League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Draft & Hold League Strategy & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Quality Starts Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Best Ball Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Saves + Holds Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy: Pitchers
- Second-Year Player Draft Primer: Hitters | Pitchers
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