Fifty-seven out of the top 100 players in consensus ADP play in the National League. While that isn’t a heavy majority, the talent level of the best of the best favors the National League. That means those who join NL-Only drafts will have a little more wiggle room to deviate from the norm early on. While the scale tends to balance out past the top 100 in NL-Only leagues, potential managers won’t sabotage themselves if they truly believe in a player and reach for him early.
That said, quality starting pitching is scarce in the National League. As of right now, 26 of the top 100 in NL-Only ADP, are starting pitchers. That means, on average, that after round 10 (in 10-team leagues), about half the managers will only have two starting pitchers. Position scarcity is even more prevalent in single-league type of competition, and in the NL, starting pitching is at a premium. If you can score two of the top 15 starters, then you’ll be off to an excellent jump in your draft. With this in mind, I’ve highlighted a few top-quality arms you should focus on early.
So, let’s get to it. After studying the consensus ADP charts, the following group of six have fallen far beyond their worth.
While you can probably still wait on drafting them closer to their ADP, I highly recommend snatching them up a round or two earlier. With the NL being a bit deeper on offense, you can slightly wait on those players and reach a bit for starting pitching. It won’t hurt you from a value standpoint and your roster will still have a very good chance of being balanced.
Without further ado, here are six players to target in NL-Only leagues, broken down into early, mid and late-round classes.
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- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
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- Fantasy Baseball Projections
NL-Only Deep Dive (2024 Fantasy Baseball)
The 30-year-old lefty has joined the underrated Cubs rotation in hopes of capturing a division title. Imanaga was dominant in Japan for nearly a decade and will now face an even tougher test in the Major Leagues.
Imanaga isn’t large in stature, but his stats across the seas are monstrous. His ERA over the past three seasons was 2.50, and his WHIP was close to 0.96. He also struck out 188 batters last year in just 159 innings in a league where contract is highly prioritized.
In camp, Imanaga is already impressing his teammates. Steele’s comments went viral on Saturday after witnessing his first bullpen session. Steele said he’s going out and buying all of Imanaga’s baseball cards after witnessing firsthand how filthy his stuff is. We’ve already seen how Kodai Senga‘s game translated to MLB, and while Imanaga doesn’t come with as high of expectations, he finished with similar numbers in the NPB.
Projections have Imanaga down for a 3.60 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, nine wins and 150 strikeouts. I tend to see these numbers as closer to his floor, and with a little luck, Imanaga could blow by those projections. Drafting a player who has yet to step foot onto a Major League field always comes with some risk, but that is why he is still available outside the top 100. With starting pitching being so scarce in the National League, Imanaga is worth selecting in the eighth or ninth round.
Bryce Elder had a rough second half of the season last year, finishing with a 5.11 ERA after the All-Star break. He lost his control a bit, issuing 3.8 BB/9 after surrendering just 2.88 BB/9 in the first half. The good news is that his home runs didn’t increase, and most of the extra hits he gave up can be blamed on an inflated BABIP.
Even though his second half left a lot to be desired, Elder’s final stat line was still above average. That’s because he was exceptional over the first three months of the season. Not only did he make the All-Star team, Elder was the most productive pitcher on the Braves staff. He gave up eight fewer runs than Atlanta’s ace, Spencer Strider, and five fewer runs than Charlie Morton despite throwing more innings.
The 6-foot-2, 24-year-old Elder finished 2023 with a 3.81 ERA over 31 starts. His WHIP was 1.27 and he won 12 games. Elder also pitched well in his rookie campaign (2022), finishing with a 3.17 ERA over 10 games (nine starts).
Elder just seemed to get fatigued down the stretch last year. Once he’d enter into the middle innings, he would start to issue a few more walks and leave the ball down the middle of the plate too often. With the way he’s performed in his first 10 games in both Major League seasons, my money is on him repeating those metrics once again. If he starts to lose it in the second half again, you can drop him, but at nearly 200th overall, you cannot go wrong. Target Elder in the late teen rounds and expect close to round 12 or 13 production.
Brendan Rodgers is a forgotten man among fantasy circles. He has spent a good portion of his career on the Injured List (IL) and did very little in his time while healthy last year. But managers would do well to remember how productive he was at full strength in 2022. From the beginning of May through the end of August, Rodgers hit over .300 and recorded 59 RBIs and 59 runs scored. He destroyed left-handed pitching and seemed to come through in the clutch time and time again.
While he won’t steal any bases, he is a prime bounce-back candidate who could finish the year with a decent average, and 60-75 RBIs and runs scored. He’ll also likely finish with somewhere in the mid-teens in home runs. Rodgers is hardly a player to get excited about for fantasy purposes, but adding a steady contributor at the back end of an NL-Only league draft is cash in the bank. Rodgers was, after all, the third-overall pick out of high school back in 2015 and still plays his home games in Denver. Target Rodgers as the draft winds down and shore up that middle infield spot as the clock expires.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.