MLB’s changes to the rules before the 2023 season completely changed the stolen base landscape. In the 2022 season, there were 2,486 stolen bases. That number skyrocketed to 3,503 stolen bases last season.
The massive increase in stolen bases changed how they must be approached in fantasy baseball. It used to be possible to take one speedster and compete for the category. Those days are gone. To compete in the top spot, one needs to have a plan.
A good place to start is to take one of the players most likely to contribute at least 30 stolen bases early in your draft. ATC projections have eight players projected over 30 steals. Four of those players have ADPs in the top 10 overall, making selecting them dependent on draft position. Three more will come off the board in the first five rounds, according to ADP.
If you find yourself missing out early on stolen bases, you will need some later targets. Listed below are players at every position, with ADPs outside the top 100 who can be later targets for stolen bases.
Players to Target for Steals in Fantasy Baseball
Bo Naylor (C – CLE)
In the last 10 seasons, there have been four double-digit stolen base seasons by a catcher. All four of those seasons have been by J.T. Realmuto, with three of them in the last three years. Bo Naylor has the skill set to be the next catcher in the double-digit steals club.
Naylor was a rookie last season who was called up in mid-June but played sporadically until the end of the season. In the end, he was just shy of 200 Big League at-bats. He still was able to steal five bases including four in the last month. He also had two in the Minor Leagues before he was called up for a total of seven last season between both levels.
His 2021 season was even better in the stolen base department. That season was split between Double-A and Triple-A, where he stole 20 bases. In the past 15 seasons, only Realmuto has had a 20-stolen base season by a catcher. With an ADP of 200, you don’t have to make an early investment in case we get another one.
Luke Raley (1B/OF – SEA)
One of the more unique Statcast pages belongs to new Seattle Mariners outfielder Luke Raley. He strikes out 31.5% of the time, which is in the bottom 10 percentile. That’s explainable by his 39% whiff rate, the worst percentile in all of baseball. The good news is when he does make contact, it is usually very hard contact.
Even though Seattle is the worst hitter’s park by Park Factor, Raley should still hit for power. His exit velocity, barrel % and hard hit % are all well above average. What is surprising is that his sprint speed is also in the 87th percentile. He used those skills to accumulate 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in only 316 at-bats.
Tampa Bay utilized Raley in a platoon role, playing him nearly exclusively against right-handed pitchers. While Seattle would likely prefer to do the same, they don’t have the same outfield depth as the Rays. It’s possible that he could get more at-bats against left-handed pitching. If that happens, a 20 home run-20 stolen base season is well within the range of possibilities for a player who can be had outside the top-300 picks.
Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF – STL)
Tommy Edman is one of the safest bets in all of baseball for stolen bases. Last season would have likely been his third consecutive of at least 30 stolen bases if he hadn’t missed most of July with a wrist injury. He still finished with 27 stolen bases in 137 games played.
It’s not just the speed in Edman’s game that is reliable. It’s all five categories of production that have been incredibly consistent over the past three seasons. His runs scored dipped a bit last season, as he spent more time towards the bottom of the St. Louis batting order, but 69 runs are still useable for fantasy. He hit 11 home runs three seasons ago and has followed that with back-to-back 13-home run seasons. His batting average was depressed by a lower BABIP but was still .248 last season. Regression to the mean should get him back into the 260 range from the past two seasons.
Edman’s ADP consensus is currently at 145, the highest of anyone on this list. It makes sense. At that point, you’ve probably taken a few shots at upside plays. Balancing off an upside selection earlier with a steady producer who also happens to be triple eligible is a solid strategy for building a winning team.
Noelvi Marte (3B – CIN)
Finding stolen base options at third base beyond the first few rounds can be difficult. Noelvi Marte could be a difference-maker in the stolen base department if he can maintain his playing time.
Marte was only in the Big Leagues for the season’s last six weeks. Even in that limited playing time, he still accumulated six stolen bases. He stole five bases in his first 11 games. It’s not easy to see why he was successful when you examine his Statcast data. Marte is in the 91st percentile for sprint speed. He also is not just a speed-only option, as he also hits the ball extremely hard. There are similarities with fellow Cincinnati Reds infielder Elly De La Cruz at much less cost.
The concern with Marte is the playing time. At this point, there are more infielders than positions for the Reds. Matt McLain, Jonathan India and Elly De La Cruz seem likely to rotate between the middle infield positions. The corner infield positions are anchored by Marte, Jeimer Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Even with one player playing designated hitter most days, there is still a glut of options. If Marte can find 450 at-bats, a 20 home run and 20 stolen base season could follow.
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