Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets: Logan Gilbert, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray (2024)

My starting pitcher rankings are mostly based upon my fScores, with a heavier lean on fStuff and fERA than on fControl, even though fControl is necessary for pitchers to be starters.

A minimum of a 95 should be desired for a starting pitcher in fControl, though there are some exceptions in certain circumstances (i.e., Dylan Cease and prime Robbie Ray). The fScores have been historically accurate when it comes to pitching, and I continue to refine them further by installing arsenal bonuses based on a number of high stuff pitches, stuff plus and location plus embedded into the equations.

We will go through each of my starting pitcher tiers and select the biggest values in each tier where you can get the most production per tier for the value of each player. The goal is to select players who will give the same production as the rest of the pitchers in the tier at a much lower value.

If you are curious about the fScore ratings, you can check out my fScore rankings and information here.

Draft Arbitrage: Starting Pitchers to Draft

NOTE: All ADPs are based on NFBC after Feb. 1.

Blake Snell (NA)

fPDurability	fStuff	fControl	fERA	TOTAL	FUTURE
110	121	93	159	121	123

Tim’s Rank: 12

ADP: 19

Reasoning: Blake Snell has won two Cy Youngs in a row and has some of the best stuff in baseball. I think it’s funny some managers are drafting Tyler Glasnow ahead of Snell. While Glasnow might be better on a per-IP level, last year was his first season with even 120 IPs (which netted him a career-high 162 Ks), and he is slated to pitch in a six-man rotation in 2024. Drafters have a fear of Snell having durability issues even though Snell has more than 128 innings in five of seven Major League seasons (not including the COVID-19-shortened season). Snell has had four seasons with more Ks than Glasnow’s career-high K season.

If you are chasing Ks and excellent run prevention, Snell is your man. It’s worth taking the WHIP ding at his current value. You will get Ks, and Snell has a career 3.20 ERA. If you are drafting now, this is his best value before he signs (unless he signs with Colorado or something); buy low where you can! His arsenal includes four pitches (all plus – FA, CH, SL and CU) with a stellar fastball that has a 120 Stuff+, which he throws nearly half the time.

Logan Gilbert (SEA)

fPDurability	fStuff	fControl	fERA	TOTAL	FUTURE
117	106	116	130	117	123

Tim’s Rank: 14

ADP: 21

Reasoning: Logan Gilbert is underrated because he is consistently very good, but never great. Consistent goodness, in my mind, equals excellence. Pitching is incredibly volatile to begin with against position players. Much of the time, this is what you want in drafting a higher-end starter. Gilbert doesn’t have the best of stuff with four pitches (three of them plus, with the exception being the fastball by Stuff+). Still, Gilbert does have one of the best sliders in baseball, and his fastball should play better than it does. He seems to throw it at the right times, so he utilizes his pitch mix about as well as he can. This is a cerebral pitcher.

Gilbert also throws a splitter and knuckle curve, which are fun pitches. Plus, he could bring back the changeup, which disappeared in 2023 but was pretty good back in 2021. There’s a ton of upside here for a dude who pitches a ton of innings and is very smart. If you miss out on Logan Webb, Gibert can be your backup plan and you won’t miss a beat. Seattle is also a really nice place to pitch.

Sonny Gray (STL)

fPDurability	fStuff	fControl	fERA	TOTAL	FUTURE
110	103	106	153	118	119

Tim’s Rank: 22

ADP: 33

Reasoning: I swear this has nothing to do with me being a Cardinals fan because I still somehow have no shares of him. Sonny Gray had the best sweeper in baseball last season and has a seven-pitch arsenal with four of them rating as plus pitches (FA, Sweeper, FC and CU). The big boon for his value actually is him going to the Saint Louis, where he will have a great pitchers park behind him and one of the best defenses in baseball. Gray has a career 51% GB rate and when you have Nolen Arenado, Masyn Winn and Paul Goldschmidt behind you on the infield, you will be happy to let the hitters hit ground balls.