Procuring undervalued players in fantasy baseball drafts is an outstanding building block for a championship run. Here are 10 undervalued pitchers and must-have picks at or slightly before their average draft position (ADP). Below we dive into a few notable names to target in fantasy baseball drafts.
Must-Have Pitchers
Pablo Lopez (MIN – SP) – 54.0 ADP
Lopez is justifiably being selected earlier than his ranking last season. According to the value-based ranking (VBR) metric, Lopez was the 19th most valuable pitcher in 2023. He’s presently the 14th pitcher selected in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts.
Obviously, based on his ranking, Lopez had stellar surface stats. He had a 3.66 ERA, 11 wins, 1.15 WHIP and 234 strikeouts in 194.0 innings last season. Still, Lopez’s underlying data was even better.
According to FanGraphs, Lopez had a 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA and 30.1 CSW%. All of his ERA estimators were lower than his ERA. Top-shelf plate discipline statistics also supported the righty’s elite strikeout rate.
Furthermore, he’s a workhorse in an age of pitchers getting removed after two trips through the order. Lopez is an ideal SP1 for gamers loading up on hitters early or an overqualified SP2 who can lay the foundation for league-best pitching if paired with another ace.
Freddy Peralta (MIL – SP) – 71.5 ADP
Peralta had a sluggish start to last season before a white-hot finish. He made a tangible change to his pitch mix to turn around his season. According to FanGraphs, through his first 17 starts, he had a 53.4% fastball rate, 21.7% for the slider, 13.2% for the curveball and 11.7% for the changeup and tweaked those to 48.1%, 22.3%, 11.0% and 18.6% in his final 13 starts. The most notable changes were reducing his fastball and curve usage and cranking up his changeup.
In Peralta’s final 13 starts spanning 73.2 innings last season, he had a 2.81 ERA, 2.54 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, 0.88 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, 36.3 K% and 30.6 CSW%. Even with Peralta’s early-season struggles, he had a 3.35 xERA for the full season.
Peralta’s elite finish to last season points to his upside. He also has a superb 2021 season on his resume. Finally, after throwing a career-high 170.1 innings last season (including the postseason), Peralta can have an even more significant impact this season if the Brewers allow him to set a new high for innings. Only 25 pitchers threw at least 180.0 innings last year in the regular season, a mark well within Peralta’s reach.
Jhoan Duran (MIN -RP) – 85.0 ADP
Duran is a firebreathing monster at the back of Minnesota’s bullpen. Among relievers with at least 40 innings in 2023, Duran had the sixth-lowest xFIP (2.75) and the seventh-lowest SIERA (2.78), largely supporting his 2.45 ERA.
The hard-throwing righty had 27 saves and a 32.9 K%, the latter validated by his 16.2 SwStr% and 29.6 CSW%. In addition, Duran kept the ball on the ground, tallying a 65.9 GB% last season. He’s the total package and worth a top-100 choice to anchor a fantasy team’s bullpen.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
