My starting pitcher rankings are mostly based upon my fScores, with a heavier lean on fStuff and fERA than on fControl, even though fControl is necessary for pitchers to be starters.
A minimum of a 95 should be desired for a starting pitcher in fControl, though there are some exceptions in certain circumstances (i.e., Dylan Cease and prime Robbie Ray). The fScores have been historically accurate when it comes to pitching, and I continue to refine them further by installing arsenal bonuses based on a number of high stuff pitches, stuff plus and location plus embedded into the equations.
We will go through each of my starting pitcher tiers and select the biggest values in each tier where you can get the most production per tier for the value of each player. The goal is to select players who will give the same production as the rest of the pitchers in the tier at a much lower value.
If you are curious about the fScore ratings, you can check out my fScore rankings and information here.
- Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Simulator
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Draft Arbitrage: Starting Pitchers to Draft
NOTE: All ADPs are based on NFBC after Feb. 1.
fPDurability | fStuff | fControl | fERA | TOTAL | FUTURE |
91 | 100 | 113 | 129 | 108 | 113 |
Tim’s Rank: 44
ADP: 60
Reasoning: Aaron Civale rates out almost as a “Holly,” to use a Nick Pollock term. However we have to keep in mind the fScores are over a three-year period. In his time with Tampa after the break, Civale’s K rate jumped from 19% to 29.3%, while simultaneously dropping the BB rate from 7.2% to 5.6% and his SIERA from 4.71 to 3.36. I was all over Eflin last season and Civale will just be Eflin 2.0, except we had a little sneak peak in 2023 giving the non-fantasy football players a benefit and a jump on buying into what we saw in August and September.
fPDurability | fStuff | fControl | fERA | TOTAL | FUTURE |
50 | 110 | 107 | 132 | 99 | 116 |
Tim’s Rank: 51
ADP: 64
Reasoning: Triston McKenzie was a top 30-ish starter pre-injury last year and there is nothing in his profile really saying he’s a worse pitcher. McKenzie only rocks a three-pitch arsenal with a killer curve and a plus slider to play with a slightly below-average fastball. Still, his stuff plays up, and if he can recreate what he did in 2021 and 2022, McKenzie is a steal at this value. He rates out as a top-40 starter pretty easily if he can reach 150 innings.
fPDurability | fStuff | fControl | fERA | TOTAL | FUTURE |
82 | 114 | 98 | 118 | 103 | 113 |
Tim’s Rank: 52
ADP: 78
Reasoning: Emmet Sheehan’s fastball never really caught on at the Major League level despite the great velocity. He has a four pitch mix of a FA, sweeper, SL and CH with all three breaking pitches rating as plus. Only the fastball wasn’t really working for him after his call up. Sheehan absolutely destroyed the Minor Leagues and then had a rough up-and-down starter and reliever Major League debut in 2023. Still, he should start all of 2024 in the six-man rotation after ending 2023 strongly with a 39.1% K rate and 2.78 SIERA in his final four starts.
More Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy
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- Should You Draft a Pitcher in Round 1?
- Fantasy Baseball Position Scarcity Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Salary Cap Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Categories League Draft Primer
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- Fantasy Baseball Value-Based Drafting Primer
- Fantasy Baseball H2H Categories vs. Points Leagues Draft Primer
- Players that Gain & Lose Value in Categories vs. Points Leagues
- Fantasy Baseball Roto vs. H2H Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Points League Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Draft & Hold League Strategy & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Quality Starts Leagues Draft Primer
- Fantasy Baseball Best Ball Draft Strategy & Targets
- Fantasy Baseball Saves + Holds Leagues Draft Primer
- Second-Year Player Draft Primer: Hitters | Pitchers
- Spring Training Stats That Matter
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