Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets: Emmet Sheehan, Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale (2024)

My starting pitcher rankings are mostly based upon my fScores, with a heavier lean on fStuff and fERA than on fControl, even though fControl is necessary for pitchers to be starters.

A minimum of a 95 should be desired for a starting pitcher in fControl, though there are some exceptions in certain circumstances (i.e., Dylan Cease and prime Robbie Ray). The fScores have been historically accurate when it comes to pitching, and I continue to refine them further by installing arsenal bonuses based on a number of high stuff pitches, stuff plus and location plus embedded into the equations.

We will go through each of my starting pitcher tiers and select the biggest values in each tier where you can get the most production per tier for the value of each player. The goal is to select players who will give the same production as the rest of the pitchers in the tier at a much lower value.

If you are curious about the fScore ratings, you can check out my fScore rankings and information here.

Draft Arbitrage: Starting Pitchers to Draft

NOTE: All ADPs are based on NFBC after Feb. 1.

Aaron Civale (TB)

fPDurability	fStuff	fControl	fERA	TOTAL	FUTURE
91	100	113	129	108	113

Tim’s Rank: 44

ADP: 60

Reasoning: Aaron Civale rates out almost as a “Holly,” to use a Nick Pollock term. However we have to keep in mind the fScores are over a three-year period. In his time with Tampa after the break, Civale’s K rate jumped from 19% to 29.3%, while simultaneously dropping the BB rate from 7.2% to 5.6% and his SIERA from 4.71 to 3.36. I was all over Eflin last season and Civale will just be Eflin 2.0, except we had a little sneak peak in 2023 giving the non-fantasy football players a benefit and a jump on buying into what we saw in August and September.

Triston McKenzie (CLE)

fPDurability	fStuff	fControl	fERA	TOTAL	FUTURE
50	110	107	132	99	116

Tim’s Rank: 51

ADP: 64

Reasoning: Triston McKenzie was a top 30-ish starter pre-injury last year and there is nothing in his profile really saying he’s a worse pitcher. McKenzie only rocks a three-pitch arsenal with a killer curve and a plus slider to play with a slightly below-average fastball. Still, his stuff plays up, and if he can recreate what he did in 2021 and 2022, McKenzie is a steal at this value. He rates out as a top-40 starter pretty easily if he can reach 150 innings.

Emmet Sheehan (LAD)

fPDurability	fStuff	fControl	fERA	TOTAL	FUTURE
82	114	98	118	103	113

Tim’s Rank: 52

ADP: 78

Reasoning: Emmet Sheehan’s fastball never really caught on at the Major League level despite the great velocity. He has a four pitch mix of a FA, sweeper, SL and CH with all three breaking pitches rating as plus. Only the fastball wasn’t really working for him after his call up. Sheehan absolutely destroyed the Minor Leagues and then had a rough up-and-down starter and reliever Major League debut in 2023. Still, he should start all of 2024 in the six-man rotation after ending 2023 strongly with a 39.1% K rate and 2.78 SIERA in his final four starts.