These prospect rankings are based on FANTASY value, not real-life value. Considering such, hitters generally weigh a bit heavier for me due to the injury risk and higher volatility of prospect pitchers. Proximity to the majors is also prominent in these rankings since we are looking at guys for only 2024.
Rather than getting into writing little bios on all of these hitters, I’ve decided to keep my rankings simple. I’ll provide the 2023 stats of each player across all levels, a player comp, a small blub on the player’s prime skills for fantasy, and an explanation of my ranking with expectations for 2024 with ATC projections and my thoughts on these projections. I’ve also included fScores for any players I expect to debut in 2024, which highlights what my fScore projections believe the player is capable of at the pro level for immediate impact.
If you are curious about the fScore ratings, you can check out my fScore rankings and information on the fScores by following THIS LINK.
NOTE: Rookie status is determined by 130 ABs or 50 IPs at the Major League level. I did opt to include the foreign imports in this equation but did not include Shane Baz (who would be ranked 5th behind Chourio) or Mason Miller (who would rank 14th).
- Top Fantasy Baseball Prospects to Target in Redraft Leagues
- 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Projections
Top Prospects to Target for Redraft Leagues
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP – LAD)
2023 NPB: 164 IP, 169 Ks, 28 BBs, 1.21 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
Age: 25
ETA: Opening Day 2024
fScores: 113 fPDurability, 127 fStuff, 165 fControl, 112 fERA
Comp: A shorter Masahiro Tanaka with Cliff Lee-like control of the strike zone
Prime Skills: Elite command with a five-pitch arsenal, including three plus pitches in the fastball, curve, and splitter that will give Kevin Gausman a run for his money. Yamamoto is a true ace, and coming over at the age of 25 makes him more valuable than any Japanese import since Ohtani (hence the contract).
Projections (ATC): 171 IP, 186 Ks, 47 BBs, 3.72 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Ranking Explanation: Yamamoto is my seventh-ranked starter going into 2024, even knowing he will be in a six-man rotation. He could easily break into the top tier of my starters this year, and the only reason I haven’t placed him as a top 5 starter is the lack of an MLB track record. He has by far the highest impact potential of any prospect, and it may be debatable to list him in this article since he’s hardly a “prospect,” even though he qualifies as a rookie. I project a lower innings total than what ATC has, with 200 plus strikeouts, an ERA under 3.20, and a WHIP under 1.10.
Kyle Harrison (SP – SF)
2023 AA: 67 2/3 IP, 109 Ks, 48 BBs, 4.79 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
2023 MLB: 34 2/3 IP, 35 Ks, 11 BBs, 4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
Age: 22
ETA: Debuted in 2023
fScores: 72 fPDurability, 105 fStuff, 93 fControl, 101 fERA
Comp: Somewhere between Shane McClanahan and DL Hall… hopefully he can start
Prime Skills: Harrison has disgusting stuff. The slider is ridiculous and reminds me of Lodolo, while the fastball rides nicely. He needs to throw the slider more; it rates as a better pitch than his slurve – it’s just not as consistent. He has D.L. Hall-type stuff with much better command. He has a very high K upside but below-average control.
Projections (ATC): 117 IP, 132 Ks, 52 BBs, 4.08 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Ranking Explanation: Harrison is currently locked into the rotation and has a very high strikeout upside, which makes him incredibly intriguing, but can he limit the walks? This big question will determine how good Harrison can be; the upside is there to be a very good pitcher. Harrison should be able to pitch around 140 innings with health, and I think he ends up with a 16-18% K-BB rate. I think the ERA could end up anywhere in the 3.7 – 4.5 range, and his WHIP should hover closer to 1.25 than 1.32.
Orion Kerkering (RP – PHI)
2023 A/A+/AA/AAA: 53 2/3 IP, 79 Ks, 12 BBs, 1.51 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
2023 MLB: 3 IP, 6 Ks, 2 BBs, 3.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP
Age: 23
ETA: Debuted in 2023
fScores: 30 fPDurability, 133 fStuff, 105 fControl, 144 fERA
Comp: Emmanuel Clase
Prime Skills: Kerkering is a sinker, slider pitcher and in his small big league sample size his slider was rating as one of the best pitches in baseball. The sinker looks a little like a Jordan Hicks sinker as it cuts in against righties at 98 MPH, while the slider appears to be two different sliders, where one is a hard drop slider at 86 or 87, and the other has more slide to it with the drop. He’s going to be an elite reliever for some time.
Projections (ATC): 52 IP, 60 Ks, 18 BBs, 3.67 ERA, 1.23 WHIP & 2 Saves
Ranking Explanation: Kerkering could get save ops this year behind Alvarado and Hoffman, which is enough value in some leagues (like DCs). The stuff reminds me of Clase or Jordan Hicks with a tad less stuff but more command. I expect him to be the primary closer in Philadelphia by the end of the season.
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