Fantasy Baseball Draft Prospects: Noelvi Marte, Jakob Marsee, Paul Skenes (2024)

These prospect rankings are based on FANTASY value, not real-life value. Considering such, hitters generally weigh a bit heavier for me due to the injury risk and higher volatility of prospect pitchers. Proximity to the majors is also prominent in these rankings since we are looking at guys for only 2024.

Rather than getting into writing little bios on all of these hitters, I’ve decided to keep my rankings simple. I’ll provide the 2023 stats of each player across all levels, a player comp, a small blub on the player’s prime skills for fantasy, and an explanation of my ranking with expectations for 2024 with ATC projections and my thoughts on these projections. I’ve also included fScores for any players I expect to debut in 2024, which highlights what my fScore projections believe the player is capable of at the pro level for immediate impact.

If you are curious about the fScore ratings, you can check out my fScore rankings and information on the fScores by following THIS LINK.

NOTE: Rookie status is determined by 130 ABs or 50 IPs at the Major League level. I did opt to include the foreign imports in this equation but did not include Shane Baz (who would be ranked 5th behind Chourio) or Mason Miller (who would rank 14th).

Top Prospects to Target for Redraft Leagues

Noelvi Marte (3B – CIN)

2023 AA/AAA: .279/.358/.454, 11 HR, 18 SB

2023 MLB: .316/.366/.456, 3 HR, 6 SB

Age: 22

ETA: Debuted in 2023

fScores: 96 fContact, 95 fDiscipline, 94 fPower, 125 fSpeed, 76 fDurability

Comp: David Wright light

Prime Skills: Marte has above-average plate skills, especially for his age, and should grow into better tools as he transitions, especially in GABP, which will only help his bat play up. The barrel rates have been off since hitting the AAA level; even though he’s making good swing decisions and has a solid SwSp%, he’s just a tick off, and this will likely make him a 2024 call.

Projections (ATC): .269/.335/.427, 13 HR, 16 SB (117 games)

Ranking Explanation: Marte gets a bump over Holliday and Camerino (even though I like both of them much better long-term), because he is more of a lock to break the opening day roster. The risk here is the Reds have so many guys on the team that Marte could get shuffled around or placed into a platoon. The slash line projections again seem pretty dead on to what my fScores would project here for Marte, but I would give him closer to 130-140 games played with 15-18 homers and 18-22 steals.

Paul Skenes (SP – PIT)

2023 College: 122 2/3 IP, 209 Ks, 20 BBs, 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP

2023 Rk/A/AA: 6 2/3 IP, 10 Ks, 2 BBs, 5.40 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

Age: 21

ETA: Early 2024

fScores: 45 fPDurability, 111 fStuff, 104 fControl, 112 fERA

Comp: Justin Verlander

Prime Skills: Skenes is more curve than slider, but his fastball is insane and his command is impeccable, especially the fastball. He throws high heat and has shown he’s durable and consistent. He has a good shot to spend most of 2024 at the major league level.

Projections (ATC): 43 IP, 41 Ks, 16 BBs, 4.60 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Ranking Explanation: This is one I don’t get… I mean, yeah, be conservative with rookie pitchers, but this projection, in my opinion, is way off in a number of ways. First, splitting the difference doesn’t help. I would bet Skenes is up by early June if he doesn’t break camp, even with Jared Jones potentially ahead of him in the pecking order. This would likely put him at around 20-22 starts in the majors and around 100 innings or so. I’d also stick him around an 18% K-BB rate at a great pitching park, so I’d think an under 4.20 ERA and under 1.25 WHIP should be expected.

Jakob Marsee (OF – SD)

2023 A+/AA: .274/.413/.428, 16 HR, 46 SB

Age: 23

ETA: Early 2024

fScores: 95 fContact, 140 fDiscipline, 80 fPower, 197 fSpeed, 54 fDurability

Comp: Ripped Christian Yelich with more air on the ball

Prime Skills: Nice compact lefty swing with some reach, the dude has all fields power and hits around the yard, which will allow him to beat the shift. The speed is legit, and he could reach for a number of 15-30 seasons in his prime with stellar plate skills.

Projections (ATC): .234/.336/.393, 7 HR, 8 SB (55 games)

Ranking Explanation: Marsee was the Arizona Fall League MVP, but for him to debut this season, he would have to skip AAA entirely, which could happen. The Padres OF right now looks pretty rough, so I would have to say there is at least a 50% chance Marsee can win a job out of camp. I would estimate something like a .275/.370/.395 slash with 11-13 homers and 22-27 steals in about 110 games, with the chance of breaking camp. Marsee is basically my Matt McLain of 2024 that I will have in every single league.

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