Fantasy Baseball Draft Prospects: Drew Thorpe, Tyler Black, Evan Carter (2024)

These prospect rankings are based on FANTASY value, not real-life value. Considering such, hitters generally weigh a bit heavier for me due to the injury risk and higher volatility of prospect pitchers. Proximity to the majors is also prominent in these rankings since we are looking at guys for only 2024.

Rather than getting into writing little bios on all of these hitters, I’ve decided to keep my rankings simple. I’ll provide the 2023 stats of each player across all levels, a player comp, a small blub on the player’s prime skills for fantasy, and an explanation of my ranking with expectations for 2024 with ATC projections and my thoughts on these projections. I’ve also included fScores for any players I expect to debut in 2024, which highlights what my fScore projections believe the player is capable of at the pro level for immediate impact.

If you are curious about the fScore ratings, you can check out my fScore rankings and information on the fScores by following THIS LINK.

NOTE: Rookie status is determined by 130 ABs or 50 IPs at the Major League level. I did opt to include the foreign imports in this equation but did not include Shane Baz (who would be ranked 5th behind Chourio) or Mason Miller (who would rank 14th).

Top Prospects to Target for Redraft Leagues

Evan Carter (OF – TEX)

2023 AA/AAA: .288/.413/.450, 13 HR, 26 SB

2023 MLB: .306/.413/.645, 5 HR, 3 SB

Age: 21

ETA: Debuted in 2023

fScores: 98 fContact, 142 Discipline, 115 fPower, 130 fSpeed, 75 fDurability

Comp: A bigger Shin-Soo Choo who could grow into more power

Prime Skills: Carter is a line-drive hitter who can hit it to all fields. He was only 20 years old last year and should grow into more power; he should at least be a 25-homer guy, and, with his speed, could go 25/20 pretty regularly in his prime. A Kyle Tucker stat line is attainable.

Projections (ATC): .254/.352/.423, 17 HR, 19 SB (144 games)

Ranking Explanation: Carter might have the roster spot locked down, but he does not have the power or speed upside of his teammate, Wyatt Langford. I would predict closer to a .260-.270 BA, which raises his entire slash line 10-15 points. I also think we see a slug over .450 with more than 20 homers to go along with about 20 steals.

Tyler Black (2B,3B – MIL)

2023 AA/AAA: .284/.417/.513, 18 HR, 55 SB

Age: 23

ETA: Early 2024

fScores: 90 fContact, 132 fDiscipline, 73 fPower, 143 fSpeed, 69 fDurability

Comp: Faster Ben Zobrist

Prime Skills: He has ridiculously good plate skills to go along with high-end speed, a solid hit tool, and above-average power. Under the radar guy who will kill it at 2B as soon as next season.

Projections (ATC): .241/.340/.403, 8 HR, 15 SB (81 games)

Ranking Explanation: Black has a better than 50% chance of breaking camp, and if he doesn’t, he should be up by late April or Early May because 3B is the weakest position in the lineup as things stand. The slash line looks about right, but I would project 130 games or so, which stretches his counting numbers to be more like 12 homers and 20-25 steals.

Drew Thorpe (SP – SD)

2023 A+/AA: 139 1/3 IP, 182 Ks, 38 BBs, 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP

Age: 23

ETA: Mid 2024

fScores: fPDurability 61, 128 fStuff, 114 fControl, 134 fERA

Comp: George Kirby-light to Chris Paddack-ish

Prime Skills: Primarily a fastball, changeup guy (though the best attribute of the fastball is where he places it), Thorpe might remind Padres fans of former top Padres prospect Chris Paddack. He has a nice slider he mixes in between the two and has dominated the minors to date ala Mr. Paddack.

Projections (ATC): 60 IP, 55 Ks, 20 BBs, 4.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Ranking Explanation: Thorpe is basically the 7 or 8 for the Padres right now, but Avila and Vazquez may not have a long shelf life, and Waldon isn’t great, while Brito would make for a better bullpen arm. My guess is Thorpe is up sometime in June for the Padres and could pitch more like 100-120 innings in the majors this year and could rock a 17% K-BB with a lower WHIP with his pin-point command. There could be some risk here ala Paddack and Gavin Stone when he reaches the majors, but my fScores love him.

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